With the 2024 acquisitions of Harrison Bader, Diego Castillo and Sean Manaea, the Mets will have to remove a player from the 40-man roster. This isn’t a huge problem, as there are eight or more players that could be cut without losing too much sleep. But previously it was an open question if David Stearns would be willing to make this type of move and now we have our answer. My opinion is that the holdovers from last year are more in jeopardy of losing their 40-man roster spot, but that’s not written in stone by any stretch.
Those holdovers are: Phil Bickford, Reed Garrett, Grant Hartwig, Sean Reid-Foley and Josh Walker. Note that those are all pitchers. Before the Manaea signing, the Mets had 20 pitchers and 20 hitters on the roster. Removing one of the holdovers keeps that equal balance between pitchers and hitters, although that’s by no means a requirement.
The 40-man currently has three catchers, 10 infielders and seven outfielders. Ten infielders seem like a lot but the only candidates for the chopping block in my estimation are Zack Short and the recently acquired Castillo. Short could definitely be on shaky ground. He’ll be in his age-29 season and he’s yet to show anything special either offensively or defensively in 177 games in the majors. He has a lifetime 73 OPS+ and a career (-9) OAA and a (-7) RAA in the infield in his MLB career. Castillo isn’t much better on either side of things but he is three years younger than Short.
Even if Short survives the upcoming cut to the 40-man, he’s in serious jeopardy should Stearns decide to make another move. The good news for him is that the Mets are unlikely to make a move for a hitter outside of DH. The bad news is that they could easily acquire a more-established reliever for the pen.
The last thing to consider is that the Manaea signing puts the 40-man payroll in the estimated vicinity of $303 million according to Cot’s, which may or may not impact the club’s desire to add a DH or RP. Last year’s 40-man payroll wound up at $330.7 million.
I don’t think the payroll dollars will be limited if they can pick up a couple more solid pieces to boost their chances to compete. First priority is a strong starting pitcher, then an impact bat. They essentially kept the lineup the same from 2022 into 2023 and that did not work out well with injuries and down years. Not saying it needs to be a Cespedes type of hitter but some strong protection behind Alonso gives Pete better pitches to hit versus pitching around him and then just taking on rookie Alvarez. Many on the 40 man roster are there just because they have no one better to put on it.
“In short, protecting a star hitter appears to accomplish very little. He indeed gets fewer walks; however, there is no evidence that he gets more hittable pitches, since the pitcher always avoids pitching to a good hitter when the situation would call for an intentional walk.”
https://tht.fangraphs.com/pitching-around-batters/
Brian – thanks for that. It was very interesting and certainly changes my thinking on the subject.
We will see
Diego Castillo removed for Sean Manaea
Cooper Hummel removed for RHP Max Kranick, who has recovered from recent TJ surgery and is now out of options.
That leaves the 40-man with 21 pitchers and 19 hitters
There will be more additions and cuts coming. The bullpen still needs shoring up and Stearns has said he is still looking to add there. Two of the eight spots are clearly taken by Diaz and Raley leaving six spots open to competition. But seven relievers on the 40-man are out of options. Any more BP additions should lead to BP subtractions.