Biography:
Christian Scott is currently 24 and will play over half of his 2024 season at the age of 25. This darling of the Mets depth charts is a little old to be a “Top Prospect” but his 19 starts in 2023 were fabulous and have given him a lot of buzz in a farm system with little pitching on the horizon.
Scott was a fifth round pick back in 2021 and was just okay in 2022. There is nothing wrong with an ERA in the 4.0 range and a WHIP around 1.4 but his 2022 was nothing compared to his 2023.
Resume:
Other than 2.0 innings in rehab that were less than ideal, Scott’s 2024 was spectacular. His ERA in High A and Double A was below 3.0 and his WHIP sank below 1.0 while maintaining a K/9 above 9.0 all of which sound more like an Ace caliber pitcher than a 5th rounder.
Pitching:
Control:
While Scott’s control has not been his trademark his numbers in 2023 showed a significant improvement with regards to control. If that uptick can be maintained, his ceiling as a backend starter could be improved to something far better.
Power:
The power’s uptick has been much more obvious as Scott’s velocity has ticked up 1 or 2 MPH consistently. He now sits between 93-96 MPH for most of a game and can hit 98 here and there. I do not think that his power will continue to increase and if it did I would be concerned about arm health.
Stuff:
Scott has a very nice slider and a changeup that he’s mixing with his improved fastball but a major league starter should have at least one more offering if they are going to see lasting success. The floor on scott is a long or middle reliever because of this.
Fielding:
Scott only had 11 chances to do something defensively so there isn’t enough evidence to go by. In few cases will this come up for pitchers unless they are exceptional in one way or another.
Outlook:
2024 will be a big season for Scott who will likely be in AAA with a chance to reach the majors at any point. His age and success in AA will make it far easier for the Mets to aggressively push him thusly. I would caution Met fans from reading too much into his 2023 numbers which just don’t match his scouting. It’s possible that he winds up rising from obscurity like a Jacob deGrom but it’s more likely that 2023 was an anomaly.
I was shocked to see Scott ranked as high as #5 on some prospect lists. I agree with your last paragraph. People like to trot out Jeff McNeil and Jacob deGrom as prospects who came to the majors late and had great success. But those are the extreme examples. And those two had injury issues in the minors that Scott didn’t have.
I would say the rose glasses outlook is that his ceiling went from being a #5 pitcher in a rotation to maybe a #3 or #4. You can’t take away his excellent year but excellence without repeat means nothing.
You have to hope that a pitcher drafted out of college will progress more quickly than a high school pick based on playing against better competition, and those playing their college ball in the Sunshine state get lots of playing time. Given that the average MLB career is about 6 years, being 25 does not preclude him from a nice average length career. Given the state of the starting rotation, it will be interesting to see which pitching prospects step up and stake their claim to a roster spot. Vasil making the leap in the next year would be great as well.
Right now I imagine the depth chart looks like this give or take a shuffle or two:
1. Kodai Senga
2. Jose Quintana
3. Luis Severino
4. Sean Manaea
5. Adrian Houser
6. Joey Lucchesi
7. Jose Butto
8. Tylor Megill
9. Mike Vasil
10. Christian Scott
I think that Scott and Vasil would both need to perform their way up the rankings to see MLB time in 2024, especially if the Mets wind up bringing in another starter (which it seems they may).
I agree that neither Vasil nor Scott is knocking on the door yet, and both need to do/show more at the minor league level. I also think there’s a measurable gap between Vasil and Scott right now in terms of their development and that Dominic Hamel fits into that gap. Let’s also keep in mind that Peyton Battenfield and Justin Jarvis are floating around out there as dark horses or long shots. If the Mets need to go that far down the depth chart, they decision on who to call up could be based on which pitcher happens to be hottest at that moment, rather than who is actually the best pitcher overall.
I think the Mets will [need to] move slowly with Scott and that he opens the season at AA, not AAA. For one thing, he still needs to build up his innings count. Only 87 IP last year after 55-60 the previous two seasons.
The AAA rotation also seems to be full already anyway, with Lucchesi, Megill, Butto, Vasil, Jarvis, and Battenfield. And if there is an opening, Domininc Hamel’s full year in AA, sheer dominance at the end of last season, and 150-inning availability for this year might put him ahead of Scott.
It also seems that David Stearns is really still in evaluation mode with the minor leaguers and will not move any of them too aggressively until he sees more for himself. The guys who have already forced the issue with their performances (like Drew Gilbert) will get moved. But the rest will move more slowly.