From the latest mailbag from Tim Britton and Will Sammon at The Athletic:
Do you think the lack of spending this offseason is more reflective of the market or a new mentality for the Mets now that David Stearns is at the helm?
—Jeffrey M.TB: While the answer to most every either/or question is “a little bit of both,” I think this offseason is more reflective of a new mentality for the Mets, albeit one that preceded Stearns’ hire and thus should not be pinned solely on him. When the Mets traded Max Scherzer at the end of July, Steve Cohen, Billy Eppler and several Mets players came out and said that they were not going to be as aggressive this winter as in years past. A sizable contingent of the fan base — or at least a more vocal contingent of the fan base — didn’t believe them.
The market this winter plays a role — it contained two unique players at its top with a large fall after them — but you could imagine Cohen’s Mets, in prior years, making bigger plays for some of those other free agents. The past season was humbling for Cohen and the Mets, and Stearns’ executive impulses — to throw money only at a smaller number of worthy targets and otherwise shore up the organization’s depth — align with some of those lessons.
Let’s pick out one phrase from this answer and bold it for extra emphasis – A sizable contingent of the fan base — or at least a more vocal contingent of the fan base — didn’t believe them.
If I had a dollar for every time the phrase, money doesn’t matter – Cohen can afford it! – well, I might be as rich as Cohen. We’re in the second week of January and the richest AAV contract that the Mets have handed out is $14 million. That could change tomorrow. You wouldn’t want to wager on that outcome but it has to be considered as a possibility.
But they’re not going to sign Cody Bellinger, Josh Hader, Blake Snell or any other free agent with draft pick compensation attached to them. It’s unlikely they spend $22 million or more on the next level of free agents. We can hope they add to the pen or bring aboard a designated hitter but that’s far from certain to happen. And if they do, it will be at the Harrison Bader–Sean Manaea level of spending. Or even less expensive.
No one is right about everything, especially me. But this insistence from the “vocal contingent” that Cohen was going to be active at the top end of the market, after what was reported at the trade deadline, was nothing short of willful ignorance. News came out after trading the old pitchers that the Mets were not going to be all-in on free agents this offseason and that instead ownership was targeting 2025 or 2026 for serious contention.
And if that wasn’t enough, the Mets hired David Stearns to run the organization, a man who for the most part made his bones with shrewd trades and low-level free agent additions. They didn’t hire Theo Epstein, who swung for the fences with a trade for Josh Beckett or who signed big-name pitchers like Bronson Arroyo, Keith Foulke or Curt Schilling with the Red Sox, or who traded for Anthony Rizzo, Jake Arrieta and Aroldis Chapman while with the Cubs.
Yet people got so blinded by Cohen’s net worth that they thought the lavish expenditures were going to go on year after year after year. Even though Cohen said himself that it was a lot to ask him to continue to lose money at this rate. Not signing Carlos Correa was the first indication that money wasn’t going to be irrelevant to Cohen. The deadline selloff only added to that story. Perhaps the relatively restrained spending in this offseason will drive home that point to the vocal contingent.
Last offseason was a lot of fun, with the Mets seemingly adding a big name on a regular basis. But the 2023 season wasn’t fun at all and this offseason has been borderline depressing. Hopefully there will be meaningful games in September. Shoot, hopefully there will be meaningful games after July 30, which is this year’s trade deadline.
A lot will have to go right in order for that to happen. Holdover Mets who didn’t play particularly well for most of the season last year will need to revert to their previous form. And at least some of Stearns’ low-cost moves/gambles will have to hit paydirt. The first full year of Stearns’ tenure with the Brewers resulted in a five-win improvement, from 68 to 73 wins. Can the Mets double that in the first year of East Milwaukee and get to 85 wins? We shall see.
After getting over Yamamoto signing with the Dodgers, I have come to enjoy this off season. The Mets have signed a few lower-cost, short-term players who could do well and I like the trade Stearns made with the Brewers. And he’s not done yet, probably adding another starting pitcher, a bat, and a couple of relief pitchers.
It might be fun watching these guys, plus seeing how Alvarez, Vientos and Baty develop.
I admire your sunny disposition here!
I would bet the under on the Mets making four additions to the roster. Would love to be wrong, though.
So why Stearns and Cohen pursue Yamamoto? That would have blown the budget also. It would have been risky to sign a pitcher for 12 years who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the major leagues for that kind of money but they thought it was a good move. If they landed Yamamoto then the “vocal contingent” would have been right.
Stearns will be more restrained with the spending but if the opportunity presents itself then Cohen will spend.
Stearns wouldn’t have done the McCann payoff and then replace it with a two year of Narvaez contract and then compounded it with a two year contract for Nido. Or trade for Gott and Flexen and immediately cut Flexen. Stearns won’t do those foolish and desperate moves with Cohen’s money.
The idiom “there’s an exception to every rule” jumps to mind here.
Cohen made an exception for YY, based on his age and talent. My opinion is that the additional marketing opportunities overseas also played into it. Regardless, the vocal contingent is based more on people who thought they were going to sign big-money deals, either in addition to YY or in lieu of that signing.
Here’s a comment that I made to you before YY signed:
My guess is that there are two plans, one if they get YY and one if they don’t. Where my opinion differs from most is that Yamamoto aside, there isn’t a ton of differences between the two plans. The Mets are going to look to fill in with veterans on short deals. Maybe they spend more money on these veterans if YY signs elsewhere. But I don’t anticipate four-year deals. I expect more deals like Severino, hopefully with team options.
Would they have made the Bader and Manaea deals if they inked YY? Bader seems more likely to me than Manaea but I wouldn’t wager on either proposition.
Pulling the plug on Verlander and Scherzer was the smart think to do, but the hangover effect on the payroll still has the Mets at or near the highest payroll in the league, along with the tax bill that goes with it. Not signing Correa was the smart thing to do, even if it wasn’t as exciting. YY picking the Dodgers over the Mets was a blessing for the Mets (IMHO), just as Bauer making the same choice. Why? As the Mayor of Panic City has pointed out, the Mets are far from the Braves and Dodgers. And, even with Cohen’s money, they can’t afford a big another financial mistake. Hence the posture on Alonso. So, it is a disappointing winter for me the fan, but it’s begrudgingly the best plan. We’ve had moneyball with money, now we have a NY rebuild with money. If I can’t have a championship caliber team with key players in their prime, I’d rather have a fringe playoff team that can sell at the deadline than a wannabe championship caliber team depending on aging vets. Go get some more competent vet rams that don’t require long commitments, play some good defense, see if these young bats can take the step to contributors.
Brian, it feels like Cohen isn’t really trying to cut costs, he is looking to build a sustainable winner, which was his stated goal on Day 1 of ownership. He sold all those guys to get prospects. If he was cutting costs, they would be salary dumps for nothing. And, he would have traded Alonso to get under the cap and not pay fines. He can always say that he wants to reset the cap and go after the market next year and no one would complain because they saw he is willing to and would believe it. But, his selling at the deadline was to restock faster. His interest in YY as you said was the combination of age and ability. And, the reason he needs to cut costs is the weight of the penalties in the talent collection part of the process.
Cohen has to play by the rules written, but more importantly, he can’t have a sustained winner if he isn’t patient enough to allow it to happen.
At first I was upset at the lack of big moves. But in really looking at it closely, it makes complete sense. Stearns has a real plan. Yes, it is not the shiny objects that I wanted, but Stearns has made some under the radar crafty moves, most of which are short term. I do like the Manaea deal and I also like the Houser Taylor deal. In fact, I like the Bader deal too.
Nobody expected Arizona to get to the World Series last season, yet they did.
The Mets depth has been upgraded. Their defense should be better. And at the trade deadline next season, maybe Alonso goes for a big time prospect.
Plus, we will learn if Baty and Vientos will be real or not. We will also have some high upside prospects that could make their debut in Jett Willians and Acuna. Plus pitchers Christian Scott and Vasil. All, without spending a lot of money.
I read about rumors of the Mets picking up two lefties Wandy Peralta and Brent Suter.
This could be the foundation of a championship team. So, after next season the potential free agents may include Juan Soto and Max Fried.
Sure this coming season may not be great, but who knows, maybe they surprise us.
Even though we may have to wait a year or two, but heck, we have waited almost 40 years since 86, what’s another year or two.
So Imanaga goes to the Cubs.
Still a big risk. He could tank, who knows.
I am starting to think that they won’t sign a veteran DH, so we can see what Vientos can do over a full season. Why sign a veteran for one year, what does that buy us for 2025? Maybe not much because after the year, the veteran leaves, we will still need a DH and we won’t have a full reading on Vientos.
So, we’ve got Diaz back, hooray, I have really missed the trumpets.
“On Tuesday’s episode of Mets Hot Stove, SNY’s Andy Martino reported that the Mets are not done spending this offseason and will continue to add to their roster with a budget of roughly $10 million.”
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-free-agency-trade-buzz-2023-24
That $10MM number should put to bed the calls for Martinez, Soler, Turner, Cease, Montgomery, Hader, and any other shiny new signing. It will still allow for a couple of complimentary pieces.
I posted this yesterday, but it didn’t show up. So, I’m again going to mention that in Britton’s/Samson’s Q & A on The Athletic, Britton spoke about what Alonso’s value would be should he be traded. He compared Goldschmidt (15+ WAR at the time) to Alonso (9.9 WAR) and said basically that Alonso should probably net a top 100 prospect, and infielder with upside, and a low ball pitcher. To the detriment of that however, is the player may resent the previous team or may learn to like life away from it. If that all we get, just hang on to him and see if he is willing to be reasonable.
He gave an example of Jeremiah Jackson as the type of infielder with upside he was referring to. As for the low minors pitcher, LOL, it won’t be Dylan Lesko.
On one hand, I get a 2017-18 offseason vibe from this winter. That year they added Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, and Justin Vargas to a fading roster. They finished 2018 at 77-85. The lack of dopamine released when a big deal is announced, and the fun of thinking about lineup possibilities during this wet, deary winter is a real bummer.
On the other hand, I can buy into the big money rebuild concept. This is not a complete teardown, and it isn’t a spending spree trying to paper over some weaker areas with a few half-@ssed signings. The Mets are augmenting a decent (but possibly fading) core of players with some low-risk/high-reward acquisitions, while continuing to nurture a farm system that may end up producing a whole result that is better than the sum of the individual parts. Also, it appears that they are going to give their young players more than a New York minute to develop at the major league level. Don’t forget that Mark Vientos OPS’d 877 in Syracuse in ’22 and .999 there last year.
So, what’s the difference between this winter and the one six (gulp!) years ago? The presence of Cohen and Stearns, along with the success of Philadelphia and Arizona these past two seasons with the expanded playoff system.
$ 10 million would be great. I’ll take Wandy Peralta and Brent Suter.
Look, Cohen is a very smart business man. He swung for the fences and we lost. After next season, we also get out from the big money owed to Scherzer and Verlander. That comes out of Cohens pocket. That money was used to get back better prospects.
The Mets will spend again, but it will be when the time is right, for the right player at the right price.
Ive been trying to point this out for a some time round these parts. Cohen tried to catch lightning in a bottle with the first big spending splash on the hopes something magical might happen. But from early on his goal was to build a sustainable winner, not just build an FA team. The team is way out of balance. You cant dump 40M$ on individual pitchers who are ancient and support them with kids who are not even clear if they are major leaguers. The farm was depleted. So the moves are consistent with trying to clear the major obligations, find out if the kids can play, not commit to long back-breaking deals, then build something sustainable, complemented by key FAs.
Yamamoto was young and talented enough that the front end of the deal would help him adjust while the team was reconfiguring and be ready for sustainable winning. In the absence of that, signing more in the nearly over the hill gang would never be a substitute, either as a player or the plan, that is his, not Stearns’.
This is gonna look like the rebuild the team needs essentially to get desperately needed balance restored.
So let me ask you a question I’ve asked you before – Do you look at the first three years of Cohen ownership as a noble failure or a dismal mistake?
Two-and-a-half years of doing virtually nothing to add to the players in the farm system beyond drafting – to say nothing of trading away PCA – Over a hundred million spent on players who didn’t deliver, nine-digit luxury tax expenditures for two sub-.500 seasons and one year with great regular season success only to be bounced out of the playoffs in the first round.
You’ve talked endlessly about needing to take our medicine and tear it down to the studs. Cohen didn’t do this and still isn’t doing it. I know you give him high marks for the money he’s pumped into the team in non-player moves — and he absolutely deserves credit for that!! — but your unwillingness to say anything not 100% positive about Cohen comes across sort of cultish to me.
I’m glad he’s our owner. I would term the beginning of his tenure as a noble failure. He put his money where his mouth was. It just didn’t work out.
The first thing Cohen did is change the culture of the fan base. The team will now play in the big leagues, or in Boras-talk, will shop in the meat aisle not just the fruits and vegetables.
The second thing Cohen did, and possibly overdid, was try to win right away. He tried to cheat on the rebuild by signing the best players he could, no matter the cost. What luxury tax? Last year wasn’t a failure due to his decisions, last year was a failure due to the injuries to Diaz, Verlander, Marte, Scherzer and Quintana. I know you will say that all teams have injuries, but you think the Dodgers win without five of their top ten players? While the Dodgers always have a ton of injuries, ironically they are always to the fringe players….. hmmmmm, how fortunate. When they need to make a move a middling to lesser player continently gets hurt.
The third thing Cohen did was completely upgrade the infrastructure of the organization, and that took alot of money. From the pitching lab, to adding scouts, to putting cameras at every part of the stadium in order to get multiple views of the action, to whatever he could get. That’s huge.
The fourth thing Cohen did was change the way the Mets are looked at around the league. Yamamoto went to LA because that’s really the place he wanted to go. If they didn’t match, he’s wearing blue and orange today.
The fifth thing is every single minor league stadium in the Mets organization has all the equipment that is at Citifield so those teams can get immediate information on the performance of their players.