In general, my preference as a sports fan is for my teams to try to assemble the best clubs they can. In other words, tanking is not my ideal way to go. But sometimes your team is in a spot where tanking isn’t really an option. And then you have the predicament of what’s the best way forward for your squad. And that’s where the 2024 Mets find themselves, at least in my view.
A bushel of things went wrong in 2023 and ownership decided to get serious about stocking the farm system near the trade deadline. Those things resulted in a 75-87 record, a drop of 26 wins from the previous season. But it was also a team that went 23-22 in its final 45 games, which came after the selloff and mostly against teams competing for a playoff spot.
In my opinion, the 2023-24 offseason was a fork in the road time for the Mets. They weren’t that far away from having a team that could seriously talk about playoffs. At the same time, with the owner’s new found commitment to bolstering the farm system, they could have aggressively shopped Pete Alonso and perhaps Jose Quintana and Edwin Diaz, too, looking for additional prospects.
Normally, my preference would have been for the first path – assemble a playoff team. But the reality of the situation, with the owner bleeding money the past two seasons (and possibly the one before that, too) the idea of sinking a ton of money into the 2024 club wasn’t the slam dunk it normally would be for me. Sure, selfishly, that was still my preferred outcome. But in a big-picture view of things, it wasn’t too hard to imagine the owner continuing on a path where he annually spent a lot of money, with yearly hopes of a World Series, yet never coming close to that outcome.
People swallow the myth that the owner is a huge, lifelong Mets fan. And while he’s had some level of allegiance to the team before purchasing it, Tim Britton has stated that his wife Alex was much more of a Mets fan than her husband. Regardless, despite what people who only look at a person’s net worth might think, a smart businessman doesn’t lose nine digits year after year after year without it forcing him to reexamine priorities.
Despite what one may think, this is far less about this specific owner than it is about any smart businessman. Rich people generally frown on losing hundreds of millions of dollars on an annual basis.
My hope is that the owner would take some short-term losses while eventually making the club a money-making enterprise while he still owned it, on a yearly basis. There’s no doubt that if the current owner sold the Mets today, he’d sell it for considerably more than he purchased the team. But who wants that? My goal is for the current owner to keep the team for the rest of his life.
So, the more time spent considering the ramifications, my viewpoint on the 2024 season was that this was a year for the Mets to retreat from chasing a playoff spot and instead look to add prospects and get under the $277 million luxury tax threshold that would put a draft-pick penalty into place. Earlier in the offseason, my opinion is that the worst thing that could happen would be to have a squad that was above the highest luxury tax threshold without an equally high chance of making the playoffs.
But that’s where the Mets are, with an estimated CBT payroll of $306 million before the Sean Manaea signing.
There figures to be one or two more additions before the start of the season, meaning we’re about 95% done with assembling this year’s team. What do you think the Mets’ chances are of making the playoffs? Is it 50% or 25% or even less than that? Gun to my head, my answer would be about 15%, which were the alleged odds last year at the deadline which the owner thought wasn’t enough to move forward with and add pieces.
People have praised David Stearns for making one-year additions to the team, allowing flexibility for greater spending next year. And, for the record, there’s value in flexibility. My complaint is this: What’s the value in the players he did sign? With the Manaea addition, the Mets have spent about $50 million this offseason. And rumor has it they may spend $10 million more. And with the tax level the team currently occupies, that $60 million will be more than $120 million.
And for what?
That much money has been spent to chase a playoff spot at low odds while keeping flexibility for next year. It’s just hard for me to imagine that this is anything close to a good return on investment. And to be clear, there are many moves by Stearns this offseason that were good, most notably the deal with the Brewers. It’s just hard for me to see the point of the additions that cost more than $5 million.
Let’s install you as the owner. Which scenario sounds better to you? Would you prefer the current iteration of the Mets, complete with salaries and taxes in the neighborhood of $500 million with a non-zero shot at the playoffs? Or would a team without Alonso, Harrison Bader, Manaea, Quintana and Luis Severino, with zero shot at the playoffs, but one with a financial outlay likely $200 million fewer and with whatever prospects you could fetch with Alonso and Quintana be more appealing?
Before you answer, consider this: What happens if Bader, Manaea and Severino all hit their upsides? Well, they probably make the playoffs, which is definitely worthwhile. But what then? That flexibility means that they all leave for richer paydays elsewhere, unless you want to live in a world paying them at least twice as much in 2025 than you did in 2024. Do you want those players as your core moving forward? Certainly, if Severino put up a 5-WAR season, you wouldn’t mind him as a core piece. But you also have to consider the injury history, as you would with Bader, too. Can you have a nine-digit contract with Severino and also keep Alonso?
What has actually happened this offseason is not my preferred outcome. It doesn’t make sense from a pure business point of view and it’s not a particularly strong team, either. My hope is that all of the new additions excel and that we’ll be watching playoff baseball in October. But that doesn’t seem likely to me. You might think not signing any big free agents, while also trading Alonso and Quintana is tanking. And maybe it is, to some extent. But any team with Diaz, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Kodai Senga on its payroll hardly fits a traditional definition of tanking.
If this truly was a fork in the road offseason, with either paved path going on opposite sides of a body of water, my opinion is that the Mets didn’t take either fork and instead drove straight into the lake.
Always something thoughtful to consider. Youve not hidden your dissatisfaction about the FO decisions making from the trade deadline going forward, including the restructuring of the FO.
While it is fine to say pretend your the FO and what would you choose about the present two options provided, but there really are an infinite number if directions any individual may take, so to me the binary choice is way over simplified, as are the numbers you present.
Surely no businessman wants to lose money. That said Cohen lost a lot of cash on hand buying the team. He also knew the thing he bought was broken, and would take both money and time to fix. So I have little worry about what he is spending willfully. At the same time, I cannot understand why you fail to note that the team value is rising rapidly. Right now the team would easily fetch 3B$, so hes made 600M$ in value – at worst the financial situation is a wash. No one owns a team without knowing the stakes involved.
I think its also very much worth noting, Cohen said froom the very beginning, while he has capital to dump into the team, it was never his intent to just spend recklessly forever on FAs like the disasters with Scherzer and Verlander. It has always been his intent to see if he could jolt the system, but eventually lean into a more sustaible model built upon the capacity to promote quality player through the pipeline into the majors. That is not new thinking, or something Stearns convinced him of.
Id also like to add a real meltdown like replacing no one, trading Diaz, Lindor, and Alonso makes a rebuild a many years long process. That seems particularly problematic in NYC. On the other hand, the present approach is conservative: its possible in the way the baseball gods work the last WC game could be had and this team could be in the 80-85 win bracket and sneak in. At the same time, the fact is all these top prospects need to play and they are gonna make mistakes. While there is still player-level imbalance (Lindor/Alonso v Baty/Vientos), if there are major winners in the kids, it will dictate just what costly FAs need to come in. Another comment about this is that a total burn down will make it ages before FAs will find Queens an attractive destination. That cant be forfeited.
In the Stearns interview yesterday, he made it clear that the kids are going to play to see of they work out, or not.
As it stands between your options. Ill take where were are, even though I harbor visions of completely tearing it all down.
I have only minor complaints about restructuring the front office and even those are more semantics than real beefs. PoBO Stearns is doing the work of GM, as what was completely expected, at least by me.
It’s very magnanimous of you not to worry about what Cohen is spending “willfully.” And I believe I’ve answered this previously but what the team is worth now is irrelevant to the cash flow of now, unless you think Cohen is going to sell. Wilpon bought out Doubleday for $135 million and sold to Cohen for $2 billion. But that $2 billion didn’t help him run the team and fund operations in the post-Madoff world. And, for sure, Cohen is much better funded than Wilpon circa 2012. But if he loses a billion dollars every seven years, how long will that be true?
133 years?
There’s what you’re worth on paper. And there’s actual cash you have available. Unless Cohen is willing to liquidate his businesses, sell his homes, auction off his extensive art collection and whatever other assets he owns, he cannot lose the money he’s currently losing for the rest of time.
After the Yamamoto bust, this is an off-season of half-measures. Why waste the money on Manaea’s sweeper and a platoon CF like Bader? Either save money to restock the farm or shop the top-shelf of free agents. Both of those are full measures.
I admire that they went for Yamamoto. Having lost on him, they don’t see anyone else worth signing for big dollars. Except for a power bat at DH, I’d prefer to let the kids play and see how they do. If they flail, Cohen can buy big in the 2025 off-season.
And I count myself among fans who believe Cohen is a fan who wants to win. It’s not a myth. Billionaires across sports don’t buy teams to make money; they buy them to hoist the championship trophy as yet another accomplishment and all it brings.
I also don’t buy the MLB owners’ spin that they lose a lot of money yearly. I doubt Cohen is annually losing “nine figures,” which is a floor of $100 million. If that is true, then why do the owners refuse to open their books to the players’ union while continuing to escalate FA salaries? No one outside MLB ownership truly knows how profitable these teams are. But Cohen saved $200 million over the next 20 years refinancing Citi Field’s bonds and he’s applying for approvals to build an $8 billion casino next to the stadium with Hard Rock as a partner.
Cohen will spend to win. His FO just doesn’t see this FA class as the way to do it. Soto, Fried, Alonso, and others await in 2025.
We know that the Mets spent $330.7 million on player payroll in 2023. We know that they paid $101 million for exceeding the luxury tax. And that’s not counting whatever money they spent on inherited debt or infrastructure improvements or non-player personnel or stadium upkeep or countless other expenses that the average fan doesn’t consider.
Show me $500 million in revenue in 2023.
My belief is that with guaranteed money from TV deals and merchandising that most teams are making money. But most teams don’t have anything remotely close to the payroll and taxes that the Mets do.
The Mets didn’t take either fork and instead drove straight into the lake.
Stearns acquisitions, although some of them were good, did not make the Mets a playoff team. Third base, center field, right field and DH are question marks. The starting pitching has two reliable starters. The bullpen has a closer, one setup man, and a bunch of question marks. The 15% estimate to make the playoffs was a realistic estimate. An optimistic estimate would be 33%. The Mets have too many holes.
I think the strategy that is in place with the signing of short term, prove it type contracts is to be able to something similar to the deadline last year. They may be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a couple of them, and then if they are out of the race come the deadline, they flip them for prospects. It’s another example of using Cohen’s money to help stock the farm system. If these guys are playing well and the team is in the race, then they can hold onto them and maybe become buyers.
What are the chances that the Mets are out of it by the trade deadline and that Bader, Manaea and Severino have trade value of anything above used fax paper?
The man owes $ 48 million to Scherzer, Verlander and McCabn, ouch. At the end of the 2024 season, we will have a much better idea of what we have in the majors and minors.
You can also look at it as addition by subtraction in getting rid of Vogelbach. Tyrone Taylor may surprise and in 2025 it wouldn’t be bad to have Bader as backup.
The big question is what to do with Alonso. If they are not going to resign him I’d trade him now.
I think their odds to make the playoffs are 20%. We may be pleasantly surprised. I am also excited about the future arrival of Jett Williams, Gilbert, Acuna and Christian Scott.
As most, I was thrilled when Cohen bought the team…we were freed from the possibility of another Wilpon generation of ownership. But, here we are, a few seasons in, and as a fan, things don’t feel much different than they did. Certainly, the new boss has made improvements, both visible and behind the scenes. Certainly, the new boss has spent way beyond his predecessors. Certainly, he inherited a middling franchise, with multiple flaws. But, this dubious offseason belongs to him. The first kink is when he pushed Alderson to deal PCA for Baez. That move had the aroma of a rookie owner acting like a fan with bucks. While PCA is touted but unproven, is was Brodie-like in parting with a chip from a thin system, when hope was more of a component than logic. The gambles on Scherzer were certainly bold, but they were big big bets, and they lost big. He was bold enough to buy some prospects, but clearly now that cost and his willingness to burn millions in 2023 is limiting his ability to build a true playoff contender.
I see the choices as a three-pronged fork, not a two-pronged fork. That middle prong is not quite the lake, but it the proverbial cutting the baby in half play. Committing a ton of money in 2023 and beyond just to be spoken about in the same sentence as the Braves or Dodgers (but still trail them talent-wise and into the near future) makes no sense. Selling off remaining assets, acquiring some more prospects (none that would truly excite the fan base), and plunging to league bottom is a bad idea…the fans will be outraged, Citifield will be empty, and hopes of signing a top free agent for 2025 or 2026 will be all but gone.
So….Cohen/Stearns figure the middle prong of the fork is the least awful of three awful paths. Yup, in reality they’ll be a playoff long shot…the 15% may apply…but they can sell it to the fans as competitive…”Hey, we didn’t trade off our good players”. If they don’t compete, they can grab a few more prospects at the deadline, hype the kids and cleared payroll, and claim they’re big game hunting again in 2025-6…and they’ll need to significantly outbid teams with more recent success to lure a top free agent. I also suspect that a lot of this middle fork path has been driven by the reality of the market price for Alonso. Had they been able to get a good return for one year of his services, I suspect that this would have led them to more of a rebuild that included a payroll reset to get below the tax line. I don’t think this materialized. They are also saddled with the reality that much of the fanbase values Pete way beyond what the league does. Another problem is that the fanbase values Alonso much higher than his trade market value. This increases the risk of losing him as a free agent without acquiring any assets, another hit.
Stearns is well paid, but he has stepped into a complex situation with no clear path. The franchise can certainly use some good fortune this season…good health, some kids to step up and shine, and if they are too far out in late July, a robust market and a couple of vets in high demand. If they don’t get any of these, it could be a long time in the dark forest. Branch Rickey once told Ralph Kiner something along the lines of “we could come in last with or without you.” For the Mets, they can wind up with a span of non-competitive baseball with or without a billionaire owner financing a league-high payroll.
One thing that’s rarely mentioned is that 2025 might be the belt tightening year to get under all luxury tax thresholds.
As Chris stated above, the plan always was to spend early and become more self sufficient in the future. Well, this is year four and the Mets are still going to have a payroll over the highest tax threshold.
If Baty and/or Vientos come thru this year and three or four minor leaguers impress in 2024, it’s not hard to imagine that self sufficiency arrives in 2025.
I don’t see it it as all that bad. As a kid growing up in the 70’s, I sure felt the pain, when you knew in your heart, that the team was going to really stink in April and they fulfilled that prophecy.
Steinbrenner, during his heyday and would go out and sign top free agents. They were much cheaper than they are now. The Dodgers now have two players in Ohtani and Yamamoto, tied up for a decade for a billion dollars. That is astronomical.
Now, with the salary cap penalties, the paradigm has changed. Teams can have expensive free agents, but it is an absolute must to draft right, not lose picks because they signed free agents and have real depth in the minors. And when you have really talented youngsters, extend them on a team friendly deal. Just look at how the Braves constructed their roster.
Cohen swung and whiffed on two old pitchers and he owes them a lot of money.
Verlander and Scherzer were a combined 16-9 before they were shipped off. Any chance that two of our pitchers not named Senga can do that? If the answer is yes and our pen does not suck, we will be in the wildcard chase, which is good on a rebuilding year. Ten more wins last year and we would have beaten the Marlins to the last playoff spot. There is a good core of players and Pete needs to be resigned. Who else out there is going to get us 40-50 HR and play a good 1B? If the front office had been smart, they would’ve signed him to a contract two years ago and followed the pattern that the Atlanta Braves did with several of their players. The amount that they are paying Ronald Acuna Jr is almost criminal how low it is. That’s why they need to ink Alvarez to a deal as well.
If we were to ship off a lot of the stars at the trade deadline, we’d be looking at a 3+ year rebuild. None of us are getting any younger so that’s not my first choice. I do give them credit for not going after free agents who happen to have a good year and now want an eight year contract at an astronomical amount of money. Perhaps if Cody Bellinger is still available close to the beginning of spring training, they could sign him to a one or two year contract. Worried that they can’t substantially bolster they’re starting staff without spending ridiculous money.