In the 21st Century you simply don’t see power hitters who don’t rack up big strikeout numbers. Gone are the days when Joe DiMaggio could hit 46 HR while only striking out 37 times, like he did in 1937. Instead, it’s much more common to see someone like Kyle Schwarber, who hit 47 HR in 2023 while striking out 215 times. Which brings us to Pete Alonso.
In 2023, Alonso hit 46 HR and struck out 151 times. The strikeouts in a vacuum aren’t a big problem. But it’s alarming how they come, or at least it is to me. If a pitcher beats you with velocity or paints the corners with his offspeed stuff, all you can do is tip your cap. But when you flail at pitches with no chance of hitting them, that’s where it gets frustrating to me.
The great pitchers get batters to swing at pitches way out of the strike zone because they look like strikes out of their hand. But at some point, hitters have to realize that they’re letting run-of-the-mill pitchers get them out with non-competitive pitches that were never going to be strikes, because they were so eager to swing the bat.
It seems to me that Alonso suffered from chasing low and/or away much more often in 2023 than in previous years. What follows is an attempt to figure out how often he chased these pitches. Baseball Savant has a terrific thing where they show the video results of every at-bat for every player. They have an 8-10 second video of how every AB ends. This will allow us to look at Alonso’s swinging third strikes and see what they looked like.
According to the Play Log at FanGraphs, Alonso struck out looking 33 times last year, meaning he went down swinging 118 times. How many of those were when he chased bad pitches? Baseball Savant has a 9×9 strike zone grid, along with four additional quadrants of pitches outside of the zone. Here’s what it looks like:
I went thru his strikeouts and separated out the video of the ones that fell into the bottom two quadrants outside of the strike zone. There were 61 of his strikeouts that came on pitches out of the zone low and/or away. That’s 52% of his strikeouts swinging. Here’s an example of what one looks like:
My plan was to show you every strikeout on these types of pitches but the video file (9:08) was too big for my hosting site. If you’re interested, you can view that video at — https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r64r8atnbcSyFHXaUzJ4xehOqNdD7bMw/view?usp=sharing
My opinion is that it would be worth it for Alonso to take more pitches with two strikes, have more strikeouts looking and fewer whiffs on lousy pitches. It’s completely unreasonable to imagine that he could eliminate these types of strikeouts. But what if instead of 61 Ks on these pitches, he cut that total in half?
Someone with as much experience in the big leagues that Alonso has should be aware of how pitchers are trying to get him out. It’s a thin line between making better swing decisions and being too passive at the plate. We want Alonso swinging the bat. We just don’t want him swinging at trash as often as he does.
In the eye test, when I watched games where Alonso struck out, it always seemed like it was low and away. Not just low and away, but many really bad pitches, where he failed. It makes you cringe.
That’s the book on Pete and all pitchers know it. Two strikes and low and away. He would need a nine iron to hit most of them.
What about coaching him. What about Pete working really hard in the off season to better identify these pitches and not swing at them.
Does anybody know what the Mets or Pete have done?
There is a correlation that the more homeruns he hits, the more he strikesout.
In 2022 he looked like a hitter. In 2023 he looked like a thumper.
In 2022 Eric Chavez was the hitting coach. In 2023 Chavez was the bench coach.
In 2024 Chavez will be the hitting coach. That is a good thing.
Alonso, McNeil, Nimmo and Marte should benefit like they did in the past.
Last year, maybe Alonso gave us a glimpse of his future. That of a homerun thumper and not a hitter. For Pete’s sake that he returns to a hitter and reduce his strikeouts.
Great yeoman research Brian.
Thanks for the kind words!
Your point about Chavez is something I expected to hear more about this offseason. Perhaps once Spring Training starts, that will be one of the themes. I’m a little bearish on thinking that the hitting coach makes that much difference when it comes to veteran hitters. But with as much was as made out with Chili Davis – despite that the hitters were doing bad when he was let go – my thought was we were going to hear a lot about Chavez.
But maybe Chavez is just what Brett Baty needs.
In seeing that pitch from Burnes, that was a great pitch. It had very late movement and Alonso even foul tipped it. I can’t quibble with that one, but there were some that looked very bad; Lagares chasing bad. The flip side is the mortal sin from Carlos Beltran that every Mets fan still cries about: “swing the bat, don’t take called strike three”. What do we want? As I have already given my opinion of some Mets fans yesterday, I’ll refrain today.
When Alonso was in AA, he was interviewed by Matthew Bernstein and Alonso said that he wants to win every at bat. I’ll never forget that. That was music to my ears. Certainly, the pitcher wants to win every at bat too, and in hitting a 75% failure rate is average. So, I can’t quibble with the strikeouts. Too, Alonso has a way of putting the ball in play and poking a hit to right in two out RBI situations.
In all, I’d like for the Mets to keep Alonso as his shoes won’t be easy to fill. The prospect return just isn’t worth it, unless it’s a Soto return: five good starting pitchers. Then, you have my attention. I’m good with the player if his contract demands are in line. If they aren’t, well…. prospects are better than nothing.
I agree – that Burns pitch looked like a strike for a bit – a good pitch. It’s why you’ll never be able to get rid of these swings at low and away pitches completely.
Great article, Brian. My initial reaction to that video was the same as Gus’s, that was a nasty pitch by Burnes. I recall many a K by Pete waving at the down and away. Marte looked particularly bad. I’m sure with all the history and video available, these guys are completely aware. They are also facing the best pitching in the world.
Much is said about statistical analysis supporting the conclusion that lineup protection is a myth. I can’t squabble with empirical results, but I’m also not totally convinced that they’re something more nuanced to it. Watching enough games to get a feel for the players, there were multiple times that Pete looked like he felt like he had to get the hit. Maybe because he’s the cleanup hitter. Maybe because there wasn’t much offense behind him. Maybe because he wanted to be the man. I’m sure if I could sense this on my couch, the pitchers could sense thus too. Lindor looked the same way in year 1 with the Mets. I wonder how Pete’s plate discipline would be if he was in the Braves’ lineup, or another deep 9 lineup.
My preference is the 2022 Pete, more Pujols style. A fee less long balls but a better hitter to all fields, a few more walks, a few less Ks. Can he do this with more or less the same offense while in his walk year with his shot of a lifetime at a mountain of money?
Love your comment TJ. You’re right, he was a better hitter when he was hitting less homeruns.
Pete is a kind of player who can press which can yield bad results. I have a feeling that he will be pressing alot this year in a contract year.
Thanks for the kind words!
I look at Alonso’s batted ball outcomes for 2022 and 2023 and there’s not a ton of difference there. The biggest one is a drop in LD%, the balls most likely to end up with a hit. He traded those line drives for fly balls, the ones least likely to result in a hit. That’s a partial explanation for the drop in his BABIP.
You mention that Alonso might have been pressing because he was the cleanup hitter in a lineup that wasn’t particularly strong. One thing that’s interesting – if not particularly meaningful – is that he was noticeably better batting 4th compared to batting 3rd last year.
3rd – 111 PA, .649 OPS
4th – 547 PA, .857 OPS
A lifetime .870 OPS guy, an .857 OPS would have looked much more in line with his career numbers than the .821 OPS he ended the year with.
Great research and confirming with science to validate what we watched. Lindor had 31 HR and 137 Ks. Nimmo had 24 HR and 146Ks. Alvarez had 25 HR and 110 Ks. Striking out fails to put a ball in play where you might get lucky with a bloop, or a sac fly, or at worst moving players over to another base. It needs to get better.
Veteran players need a hitting coach to help get them out of a slump. Young players need the discipline and ongoing encouragement. The Ks have to come down. Can’t argue with Pete’s .821 OPS, but a .217 BA is not acceptable. In 2022, Alonso had 6 less HR but 13 more RBI, to go along with 23 less Ks and a .271 BA. More contact, better the results.
And I agree that Pete would benefit from taking more of those pitches. Easier said than done. We yell at the big flat screen when he swings at a ball out of the strike zone that is so obvious to us from the couch and that little strike zone box that appears out of no where in front of the catcher. Can’t for a second imagine standing at the plate with a 95 MPH approaching. And to have the eye sight and reflexes to recognize it not to be a strike and to hold up the swing is incredible.
I don’t buy it. He needs to work extra hard in improving his game. I get it if he swings at a pitch that is close outside of the zone, but not a mile off the plate.
I’d rather see him hit fewer home runs, hit more doubles and hit for a higher average.
I watched all the strikeouts Brian. Thanks for that. Initial reactions are how often it was against the Braves. In fact, some of those at bats weren’t even competitive. So much for trying to win each at bat, huh? Also, if he can’t reach the outer edge, might moving in help?
Let’s put Alonso through our Shredder, as they say on MLBN. Last year, Alonso trended down in several stats. First, his average exit velocity has never been too special, but at 89.5 mph it is barely above average. However, since he wants “Judge money”, let’s compare. Judge last year: 97.6 mph; close, LOL!!!
Now let’s look at LD% which has been trending down as well as the exit velo: 15.7%. Judge is at 19.6 after being in the 20’s. Alonso has never been in the 20’s.
Nimmo Hard Hit%: 47.7%. exit velo: 91.1
Lindor Hard Hit%: 43.9%, exit velo: 91.2
Matt Olsen: 55.1% and 93.7, respectively.
Judge Hard Hit%: 64.2% with a Barrel% of 27.5%.
Alonso Hard Hit rate: 39.9 with a Barrel% of 14.7%.
My point is not to trash Alonso, because I like him. But rather to tell you what every other GM sees meaning trade packages won’t be as heavy as we think they should be, the contract won’t be as big as Pete Alonso wants it to be (maybe that’s why he changed agents to the best hypnotist around), and his selling out for homeruns means big swings that pitchers can use to their advantage.
Thanks for the kind words and the numbers comparing him to other players.
Great job on Pete’s weakness – the low and away swinging strike. I think it’s his biggest hole at the plate, right behind his mind.
Im with TJ and Gus about the hitting better when his life isnt all about HR. I think when the team is behind and not hitting overall, hes up there looking for a 6-run HR, and opposing pitchers know it. And they know hes gonna chase chase chase. If any pitcher has any sort of decent breaking ball, esp a righty, Pete’s out. Im disappointed his pitch recognition is still poor.
Like the movie says: trouble with the curve.