Mets 2024 projections: Jose Quintana

From 2014-2017, Jose Quintana posted four straight 4.0 or better fWAR seasons. Then, from 2018-2021, he recorded a combined total of 5.6 fWAR, with 3.5 of that coming in 2019 alone. Quintana then had a big bounceback season in 2022 (something the Mets are hoping Luis Severino can duplicate) with a 4.0 fWAR split between two teams. The Mets inked him to a two-year deal, which seemed to give them a very nice quintet of starting pitchers.

And then Quintana left a Spring Training start with soreness on his left side. The initial diagnosis was a stress fracture to one of his ribs. Later it was determined it was a benign lesion, one that necessitated bone graft surgery. Quintana missed 3.5 months of the year and his absence was one of the unheralded reasons for the team’s disappointing season.

But when he came back in later July, he was everything the Mets hoped he’d be, as he posted a 118 ERA+ over 13 starts, giving the club eight quality starts in that span. Here’s what the computer models think he’ll give the Mets in 2024:

ATC – 149 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.54 K/9, 1.05 HR/9
Marcel – 109 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
Steamer – 168 IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.58 K/9, 1.18 HR/9
THE BAT – 151 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.19 K/9, 1.21 HR/9
ZiPS – 99.7 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.76 K/9, 1.08 HR/9

That’s quite the varied set of projections for a veteran pitcher! Perhaps it’s not a huge surprise, given Quintana’s poor performances in 2020-21, combined with his injury-shortened 2023. And then add in that this will be his age-35 season and the pessimism of THE BAT and ZiPS makes some sense. Still, it’s not anything that should make Mets fans feel good.

The one that stands out to me the most is the HR/9 forecasts. Lifetime, Quintana has a 0.9 rate in the category and the past two seasons, it’s been 0.6 and a league-leading 0.4 in 2022. It just seems overly negative that THE BAT forecasts a rate twice as bad as what Quintana posted a year ago.

If you think Quintana is going to give up homers at this rate, perhaps an ERA a full-run higher than the 3.57 he posted in 2023 makes sense. One thing that gives me pause is that Quintana’s FIP last year was in virtual lock step with his ERA, checking in five points lower with a 3.52 mark.

To me the biggest challenge with Quintana is figuring out how often he’s going to pitch. He’s been reasonably healthy in his career, topping 30 starts eight of the past 11 years. But all three times he failed to reach that mark have come in the last four years. Should we count on a pitcher to reverse that trend at age 35?

The flip side of that is that in seven of the eight seasons Quintana has reached 30 starts, he’s posted a 3.4 or better fWAR, with the only exception being his 2018 campaign, one when he had a 1.3 HR/9.

Previously, my forecast would have been something along the lines of what he did in 2023, but teased out to 32 starts. But my goal this year was to be less optimistic about my projections and that influences what comes next. Here’s my completely biased forecast for Quintana this season:

145.2 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9