Prior to the 2019 season, new GM Brodie Van Wagenen made a big trade to acquire Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. It was a win-now move, with the hope that Cano would produce enough in the first few years of the deal to make up for expected diminished production at the end of his contract. It didn’t work out, as Cano dropped from a 136 OPS+ in 2018 to a 95 mark his first year in Queens. And Diaz went from a 3.5 fWAR in ’18 to a 0.0 mark his first year with the Mets. It’s hard to imagine those two performing any worse than they did.
The 2019 Mets won 86 games. After the season, it became the post hoc rationalization for the deal that if Cano and Diaz had performed up to expectations that the Mets would have made the playoffs. Yeah, it’s usually the case that if the biggest underachievers played better, that a team that just missed the postseason would have had a different outcome.
Contrast that with the trade-deadline deal that saw the Mets acquire Javier Baez. The Mets were on the fringes of the Wild Card when they pulled the trigger on that deal. And after a rough start with his new club, Baez was great. In two months with the Mets, Baez had a 140 OPS+. But the team didn’t catch fire and finished the year under .500 at 77-85.
There were no rationalizations to be found after the year ended. Hardly anyone mentioned how well Baez played, while those around him mostly stunk up the joint. Instead, it was the continued disbelief how they gave up a top prospect for a two-month rental. In no way was that take wrong. Still, it brings up a larger point:
Is it worse for your front office to exaggerate the abilities of guys they’re acquiring in a deal or is it more harmful for them to overestimate the talent on hand before making a trade?
For sure, neither one is good. But in the examples above, it seems fans would opt for the former, if forced to pick. Of course, we have to look at the other side of the equation. In the trade with the Mariners, none of the pieces sent packing have yet to pay off. Although with Jarred Kelenic now on the Braves, there’s no doubt the gods will pick this season for him to put everything together.
If Kelenic has a big year, will that force the mainstream fans to reconsider the Cano/Diaz deal yet again? On the other hand, if Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to strike out at the 29.7% rate like he did in Triple-A last year, or the 36.8% mark of his brief time in the majors, will those same fans revisit thoughts about that deal, too?
Like T.J. mentioned in a comment on Sunday, will the 2024 Mets trade a prospect for a rental if the club is on the fringes of the Wild Card race? And will the early-season performances this year of both Crow-Armstrong and Kelenic factor in at any way – either how the fans view a potential deal or if it makes the team’s front office leery of trading a first-round pick before he reaches the majors?
The problem with Baez’s year in 2021 is that although his overall numbers with the Mets were very good, when he was acquired the Mets were leading the division and for the next month he put up a 203/247/420 line from the day he as acquired till 9/2. By that time the Mets went from 4 up in the division to 3 down. After that Baez turned it on and put up a 361/441/577 line which is amazing, but most of it was when the team was effectively out of the playoffs. I hated that deal from day 1 and still do.
Thank you for the correction that the Mets were in first place when the deal was made.
Very thought-provoking article, well done!
Any trade involving prospects is very difficult to judge IMO. Fans see prospect rankings and look at guys the Mets traded away trending upwards and go ballistic. Kelenic is a prime example. That deal looked horrendous the first two or so years after it was made. This trade may be the prime example of the old saw that it usually takes 5 years to evaluate a trade as being accurate. I was at Citi Field in August of ’22 and witnessed the roar of approval when Diaz stepped out of the bullpen door. I could have won a lot of money if I had betted on that happening just two years prior.
I hated the Baez/PCA trade the moment it was announced. An unstable FO and a team desperate for a miracle was just a bad combination. It reminded me of those deals they made in 2004 for Kris Benson and the guy they got for Scott Kazmir.
It will be interesting to see what kind of long-term impact the 2023 deadline has on the Mets. Right now, 5 of their top 20 prospects are the result of that sell-off. Let’s see what the future holds, however if most of them flop, it won’t be long for the revisionist history carpers to parrot Buck’s bromide about how they could have grabbed a WC spot (possibly Arizona’s) if they had held the course. As someone who watched the 2023 Mets, I find that unlikely!
Back to the Kazmir trade for a moment: I would argue that this was the most damaging trade the team ever made. Yes, the Seaver deal sent a team already in a deep decline into a nuclear winter; while the Nolan Ryan deal was horrendous on several levels, but the Kazmir deal short-circuited a Mets mini dynasty. Kazmir in the rotation in 2006 means no Steve Trachsel starting Game 3 and lasting one inning. Had he been in the rotation in 2007 and 2008, there is likely no collapse. That trade cost the Mets at least one pennant (I think they spank the Tigers in the 06 WS) and two division titles the following seasons.
This was something banged out after reading T.J.’s comment on the regular Sunday piece. If I had spent some time on it, I definitely would have expanded it to include Kazmir, so thank you for bringing him into the conversation. FWIW, the guy they got for him was Victor Zambrano.
Victor Zambrano. Every time I see Jim Duquette on SNY, I remember why he is a commentator for a third-rate network and not an MLB executive!
Good points in the article and above. I understand the motivation to land a wild card birth, but I am leery of parting with assets for rentals that can land a playoff birth as a long long shot. When Mets acquired Baez, deGrom’s availability was very doubtful. Now, if Senga and Severino and Diaz are having dominant seasons, I’d say part with some assets as they could make a run. If they are simply hanging around with no clear indication of playoff competitiveness (knowing that is difficult to assess), and with Pete likely to walk with no return, I’d hope they hold their chips for the offseason.
Historically teams will trade prospects for a chance at a title. In 1969 the Mets got Don Clendenon from the Expos for five players and he went on to be the MVP of the series hitting .357 with a double, three HR and four RBI in the five game series. They picked up Cespedes for promising Michael Fulmer who had a couple of good years with the Tigers and is still playing. Cespedes hit 17 HR with 44 RBI from the trade deadline and led the Mets into the series. In ‘72 the Mets snagged Rusty Staub for Jorgensen, Foli and Singleton. Staub was a leader on the ‘73 WS team.
Given that the Mets have just two titles and just five trips to the series in over 60 years how can anyone argue with trading prospects if the return will push you over the top??
Hopefully they will be buyers at the 2024 deadline and I’d love to pick up some players to solidify this team.
Well, we all want to win, but at what cost? In 1985, the Mets gave up a boatload for Gary Carter. I remember Hubie Brooks, Floyd Youmans, Mike Fitzgerald, Herm Winningham… was there more?
You need to be able to self scout. Cashew knew what he was doing. Good talents, not great. The Baez trade was for a player hitting .224. How stupid!!!
The Cano trade was for a guy with a “no trade clause” that was owed $120MM. The Wilpons are businessmen first and owners second and adding a useful Jay Bruce and an average arm in Anthony Swarzak was the reason Kelenic had to be included. DiPoto approached BVW at the GM meetings about this knowing who BVW was, and BVW fell for it. The result doesn’t excuse the process. The Mariners were threatening to trade Diaz to the Phillies and BVW fell for it. For context, can you see Stearns handling it the same way?
I actually liked what BVW tried to do with the Mets. He tried to upgrade the minors facilities, brought some good people over like Alan Baird, and he tried to make the team have a policy of minor league fundamentals that it lacked and we saw the results from Amed Rosario. Still, if they took the whole Cano contract and offer Bautista, Dunn and Anthony Kay, and take out Bruce and Swarzak, do the Mariners say no to adding Diaz? I can’t see that.
My problem with trading Crow-Armstrong, besides my thought that he has a great Native-American name, was that he was a first round pick and played CF, a position the Mets desperately needed to fill at the time