Mets 2024 projections: Brandon Nimmo

The Mets closed 2023 by going 23-22, thanks in no small part to the finishes by Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo. While McNeil was a major disappointment the first four months of the season, Nimmo was having a solid year, with a .784 OPS thru the end of July. But the final two months of the season saw him being the type of player we always hoped he could be. With his broad range of skills, Nimmo is one of the few players in the league capable of posting a .300/.400/.500 line. In his final 216 PA, Nimmo slashed .311/.384/.539 with 24 XBH, including 9 HR.

As with McNeil, Nimmo has teased us in the past with this type of production but neither have been able to do that for a full season. Yet somehow this feels different with Nimmo this time around. From the broadcast booth, Keith Hernandez has told us that Nimmo is actively looking to turn on pitches, which perhaps he hasn’t always done in the past. Now let’s segue from that subjective opinion to a more objective view. Here’s what the computer models forecast for Nimmo this season:

ATC – 640 PA, .268/.363/.441, 19 HR
Marcel – 608 PA, .274/.366/.447, 18 HR
Steamer – 675 PA, .269/.364/.442, 20 HR
THE BAT – 640 PA, .268/.365/.445, 20 HR
ZiPS – 615 PA, .266/.361/.429, 17 HR

The projection systems all see the same guy, with the exception of ZiPS, which is bearish on his SLG. While the expectation for a veteran player should be similar forecasts, it surprises me some that none are buying his increased power. Last year Nimmo had a career-high 24 HR. None sees him coming closer than four homers to that total. To be fair, Nimmo’s previous high in homers was 17, so all see him at least matching that output.

Once considered to be a big injury risk because of multi-month IL stints in 2019 and 2021, the computer models all see Nimmo surpassing 600 PA. While we can be disappointed with his triple-slash numbers from the projection systems, we should take some comfort that the median projection from these models all see this level of playing time.

Nimmo has consistently produced elevated BABIPs in his career, with a lifetime .333 mark in the category. To me, the question is if he can deliver the power of last year while still out-performing in BABIP. During the final two months of 2023, that answer was yes, as Nimmo recorded a .357 BABIP. It’s extremely difficult to project a hitter to have that type of BABIP. The four models that had that number computed topped out at .319 for Nimmo in 2024.

Is it outlandish to expect Nimmo to match his lifetime BABIP mark while delivering the power numbers of the final two months, a stretch that saw a .228 ISO? One other factor to consider is his strikeout rate, which was 21.4% for the year but fell to 19% in the final two months. Nimmo delivered power without increasing his whiffs. It was a very impressive performance at the end of the year.

The .923 OPS of his final 216 PA is probably the 99th percentile of what we can expect from Nimmo. The models see a roughly .800 OPS as the 50th percentile. My totally biased projection for Nimmo is: 675 PA, .286/.377/.490, 25 HR