Every MLB team faces adversity. And those challenges can come from injures or under-performance or questionable lineup/roster decisions. Spotrac tracks injuries and last year, MLB clubs had between 13-35 IL moves each, with dollars lost to the IL ranging from $9.5-$82.1 million. The Mets were tied for 11th with 25 IL moves and ranked fourth with $55 million dollars lost to the IL.
But imagine if the Mets were in the lower half of the league in both IL moves and dollars lost due to injury, instead of the top half. What if they were the Phillies, who were 26th in IL moves made and 21st in dollars lost – wouldn’t that be fun? It would be a whole lot easier to earn a Wild Card berth if that were to happen.
And what about the under-performance category? It’s much more difficult to track that and see which teams had the most and the fewest number of poor performers. It sure seems the Mets would rank poorly in that department, too. At the very least, Brett Baty, Carlos Carrasco, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil would rank with the under-performers. And there are others, who didn’t end the season with the club, who would certainly merit consideration. For example, Mark Canha went from a 122 OPS+ to a 100 mark with the Mets last year.
Which brings us to the relevant question: How many injuries/poor performances/bad roster decisions can the Mets endure in 2024 and still make the playoffs? We’re already at one, with Kodai Senga slated to miss at least a month of the season. No doubt there will be others.
It seems unlikely that the Mets will capture a Wild Card berth if anyone from the group of Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, McNeil and Brandon Nimmo miss a bunch of time to injury or don’t at least hit their median projections. But for sake of argument, let’s assume that quintet stays reasonably healthy and reasonably productive. Who can they least afford to lose from the rest of the team?
Here are the top 10 remaining Mets’ fWAR projections by Steamer:
2.3 – Senga
1.9 – Sean Manaea
1.7 – Jose Quintana
1.6 – Harrison Bader
1.6 – Luis Severino
1.5 – Baty
1.3 – Edwin Diaz
1.1 – Marte
0.9 – Adrian Houser
0.8 – Mark Vientos
You may be surprised that J.D. Martinez is not on this list. Steamer projected him for a 0.4 fWAR. None of the projection systems forecasted a mark greater than 1.0 for Martinez. That seems a tad surprising but he’s giving you nothing on defense and is hurting you with his baserunning. And this will be his age-36 season.
Let’s say Bader, Marte and Severino all join Senga in missing at least a month of the season. And that Quintana, Baty and Houser all fail to reach their median forecasts. That’s 80% of the rotation failing to meet expectations, along with two-thirds of the outfield. Can a team handle that much adversity?
Of course, it all depends on what the Mets would get from their replacements, along with any production above expectations. If Manaea pitches as well as he did in September while Tylor Megill pitches as well as he has this Spring, the rotation wouldn’t be a complete disaster. And Jose Butto offers some hope as a replacement starter, too.
Our quintet that we hope stays healthy and productive have a combined Steamer estimate of 18 fWAR. Add to that the 47 wins of a replacement team and we have 65 fWAR wins. Can the rest of the team stay healthy enough and productive enough to add 20 more wins? Here’s a guess:
2.5 – Manaea – exceed expectations
2.0 – Senga – short of expectations
2.0 – Diaz – exceed expectations
1.5 – Martinez – exceed expectations
1.0 – Butto, Megill – exceed expectations
1.0 – Bader, Baty, Quintana, Severino – short of expectations
That’s 14 fWAR, without predicting a monster year from anyone. Can the bullpen, bench and mid-year additions add six wins? That may be optimistic. The best path for that might be the bullpen coming up with many more positive fWAR performances than negative ones. They don’t need anyone to put up more than 1.0 fWAR, if there aren’t too many guys repeating the production of last year’s option relievers.
And that negative performance is definitely a concern. Last year, the Mets lost 6.7 fWAR from a combined 21 players who finished with a negative number. Baty and Marte combined for 730 PA and a (-0.8) fWAR. Absolutely, they played poorly. But it was also a poor decision to give them that much playing time. And those are the roster decisions that we hope to see improvement on this year.
I already see the first bad roster decision for 2024. Vientos is being sent down to Syracuse (joining Martinex), and this makes absolutely no sense! Conventional wisdom had Vientos being the DH while JD ramps it up in AAA. So now who will be the DH for the big club? Stewart?
We all know that Vientos is pure DH……and so is JD Martinez; so unless Vientos is going to be traded in the next few days, his being sent down makes no sense (yes I repeated myself).
Stewart & Marte & McNeil have yet to hit in ST…….(and so has Lindor for that matter), but I’m not worried about him.
It was conventional thinking – not wisdom – that had Vientos winning the job. And conventional thinking breeds conventional results.
I disagree that Vientos is a pure DH. His defense improved this spring. Not enough or him to play at the MLB level, but enough to warrant not giving up on it. Two months from now Baty, Short, or both could both be a flops. What is your Plan B for 3B? Having Vientos work more at the position means that maybe Vientos he’s ready to take a share of the time at 3B if that happens.
I’m not sure what, exactly you think a trade will bring for a talented, but flawed hitter who still does play a position. And who is the DH after JDM leaves in a year?
Nice article. Also confused with Vientos being sent down while he could be DHing till Martinez is ready. And if he pounded the ball then you make sure he gets some reps and shares a little more of those duties with Martinez. All teams have injuries and it’s the teams that have another player ready to move up that makes for a successful team. That was the hallmark of the old time Dodgers and Oriole teams and certainly the Braves and Cardinals as well. The Mets need to continue to rebuild the farm so that they are ready to bring in a replacement if needed. It’s a long season and we were exposed last year when they brought up the no name gang after the trade deadline sell off. I believe we are better positioned this year to weather injuries but you are right that the big four need to stay healthy for this team to snag a wildcard spot.
How much value is there in having Vientos DH for 10-15 days, and then either get sent down or ride the bench? The JDM situation offers the Mets a unique opportunity to extend the auditions of Short and Stewart before making a potentially final decision.
Nice article. Also confused with Vientos being sent down while he could be DHing till Martinez is ready. And if he pounded the ball then you make sure he gets some reps and shares a little more of those duties with Martinez. All teams have injuries and it’s the teams that have another player ready to move up that makes for a successful team. That was the hallmark of the old time Dodgers and Oriole teams and certainly the Braves and Cardinals as well. The Mets need to continue to rebuild the farm so that they are ready to bring in a replacement if needed. It’s a long season and we were exposed last year when they brought up the no name gang after the trade deadline sell off. I believe we are better positioned this year to weather injuries but you are right that the big four need to stay healthy for this team to snag a wildcard spot.
Sorry. Not sure how it let me post twice ♂️
Another poor roster decision has just taken place . No doubt there will be others. Vientos has been optioned to AAA and Short and DJ Stewart are in the opening day roster. Vientos has 646 AB, 43 HRS, 126 RBIs, .290/371/556/927 in AAA. He has mastered AAA but has not mastered MLB . Stewart and Short are older and haven’t mastered MLB either. Vientos is the best Quad A of this trio and should have made the team.
Maybe a questionable decision, but not poor. Like you said, a trio of Quad A players. Picking one over the other is just guesswork and hair-splitting. And is Vientos the best of the three? Short had a higher OPS, OPS+, and WAR last season, and outhit Vientos again this spring. He plays good defense at 3 If positions, and can also cover some OF in a pinch. He’s also got better speed. He’s older, yes. But he’s still in his prime years, and is still improving from year to year.
You’re right that Vientos has graduated AAA – offensively. But not defensively. And thats what the Mets plan to have him do there – play 3B. Baty is not proven, and platooning him with Vientos might be the ideal solution once Veintos gets his ‘D’ up to snuff.
Do you really want Vientos DHing? He hit 5 HRs in ST but he struck out a lot. He failed his tryout that’s why they got Martinez. Let him prove himself in 3A and let’s see what happens.
Having just turned 24, I am not giving up on Vientos. However, he put up an OBP of .259 and a K rate over 30% this spring. I just can’t know the Mets for signing Martinez at a bargain rate. They are giving Álvarez and Baty shots, so they are not exactly abandoning the kids. While it is a tough pill, I do think it’s better for Vientos as well as Baty to play every day and let’s see where they stand at May 1.
Don’t have a problem with Vientos being sent down, as TJ tells us that his spring training numbers weren’t satisfactory, ut as Metsense points out that he has mastered AAA, I would like to see him use that time to become more versatile. In ‘86, the Mets had Kevin Mitchell strategically playing everywhere. I wasn’t as old or savvy as I am now, but was Kevin Mitchell better defensively than Vientos is? If Vientos can play 3B, 1B, RF, and LF, I would like to see that. Then, he becomes insurance for Marte and Bader (with Nimmo going back to CF more often), he starts at 3B against lefties, and he backs up Alonso. That’s what would benefit him and the team.
As for the WAR offered, it is my thinking that the 8 WAR for the quintet is too low. I would expect at least 22 from them (5, 5, 4, 4, 4) and possibly more. Too, if Marte and Severino aren’t at least a full unit of WAR higher each, they may as well be injured.
Yeah, I would take the over on that fWAR from the quintet if they reached the playing time that Steamer projects. For instance, Steamer has Lindor with 673 PA and a 4.3 fWAR. Six times in his career Lindor has topped 600 PA and his lowest fWAR total in those six years is a 5.3 mark.
Gee,what would make you think Vientos could play 3B,LF,or RF? He’s a DH IF he can hit.
And Vientos doesn’t have half the guts or the drive of Kevin Mitchell. That the Mets admitted that Vientos really had no position to play in the field is an indictment on prior management. Like keeping Mauricio at SS with Lindor there forever. Wanted him to get a shot at DH to start to see how he did when real games started. Now what’s his real path back up once Martinez joins the team?
Which prior management? Pick one…
I don’t like the Vientos move either. However, I wonder if there is another angle. This assumes that JDM is sent to Syracuse too. Perhaps the plan is to have JDM work with Vientos to show him how he prepares for a season and to be his personal hitting mentor. They can work together outside of the media glare of NYC. Once JDM is ready, Vientos is either on his own in AAA for a while or he actually joins the big club at the same time and Short and Stewart are gone. It may also be that they wanted a lefty PH in Stewart vs. having only RH options with Short and Vientos. Yeah, I know Wendle is a lefty but he’s not much of a PH threat. (I was hoping that they’d trade Wendle as he seems to be unneeded given Short’s progress.)
It’s a tough break for Vientos but if he’s got the goods, it won’t matter in the long term.