My opinion last year with Francisco Alvarez was that he should have made the club out of Spring Training, getting most of his ABs early on as a DH and then receiving more time behind the plate as the year progressed. And people laughed. His defense was nowhere close to MLB-ready, they claimed, and the signing of Omar Narvaez closed off his path to the majors, because no team carried three catchers.
But Narvaez got hurt early and Alvarez got the call. And he was nowhere near as bad defensively as the club – and many fans – claimed. No one in the mainstream media pushed back or even asked what it was that Alvarez couldn’t handle behind the plate. And when we got to see him, not only wasn’t he awful – he was above average in framing and blocking balls in the dirt. For the final FU from the Mets, they tried to claim with a straight face that the reason Alvarez was as good as he was defensively was because he was a “sponge,” soaking up training from the coaches that made him better immediately.
It still rankles, nearly a year later.
Anyway, Alvarez showed excellent power in his rookie season, blasting 25 HR in 382 ABs. But the hits didn’t fall in for him, as he posted just a .222 BABIP, after posting a .310 mark in the category in Double-A in 2022. He ended up slashing .209/.284/.437 in 423 PA. That .721 OPS was far ahead of the .580 OPS of Narvaez last year, along with the .278 mark of Tomas Nido.
Now Mets fans hope Alvarez can avoid some of the offensive slumps that plagued him last year, while improving on his throwing behind the plate. Here in the projections series, we’re more interested in what the player is going to do offensively. Will Alvarez build on what he did a season ago or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Here are the forecasts from the computer models:
ATC – 476 PA, .228/.312/.444, 24 HR
Marcel – 413 PA, .232/.308/.456, 22 HR
Steamer – 466 PA, .232/.316/.459, 25 HR
THE BAT – 476 PA, .226/.307/.432, 24 HR
ZiPS – 483 PA, .223/.315/.412, 21 HR
Well, it seems the models aren’t projecting Alvarez to either suffer a sophomore slump or to take a leap forward. They essentially see the same type of season in 2024 that he had a year ago. Yes, the AVG and OBP are up slightly. But not by any great amount. It’s pretty surprising to me how much uniformity there is among the models on a player with just 437 PA in the majors. The five systems see an AVG and an OBP both within a 9-point range. And while there’s more of a range with his SLG, all systems see him between 21-25 HR.
It feels unprecedented for a young player, although there must be others.
Earlier it was mentioned about the offensive slumps that Alvarez experienced last year. To simplify things, let’s look at his OPS by month:
.494 – April
1.029 – May
.534 – June
.974 – July
.456 – August
.735 – September
Perhaps it’s not meaningful in the overall scheme of things; it just seems unlikely to me that Alvarez will have three calendar months this year with an OPS of .534 or worse. For a point of comparison, Pete Alonso didn’t have a great year at the plate last year. He posted a .586 OPS in June and every other month was .741 or better. We shall see.
The other thing that will be interesting to see play out is how Alvarez will do versus LHP. With the platoon advantage last year, Alvarez had a dismal .171/.270/.341 line in 148 PA. This year in Grapefruit League games, Alvarez is 2-10 against lefties, but those hits were a double and a homer. Going back to 2022 in Double-A, Alvarez had 60 PA versus LHP and posted a .296/.367/.537 line. It doesn’t seem outlandish to project him to do better with the platoon advantage this year.
My totally biased forecast for Alvarez: 501 PA, .231/.281/.500, 36 HR
.271/.336/.512/.848
602 PA, 32 HR’s, 2 SB
Francisco will please Met fans this year big time.
I see him being helped greatly by the return of Chavez as Met batting coach. A little different approach and smarter at the plate. I see the same power of 25 HR’s, but a .250 Avg and up to 70 RBI’s as the fourth highest total on the team after Alonso, Lindor, and JDM. On defense, he will be good enough to make the All Star Team as a back up. Like I said, Met fans will be proud of the kid this year.
And a gun for an arm! Love the improvement on throwing out potential stealers!
505 PA, .240/.305/.475, 30 HR
I agree that he’ll not have the horrible slump stretches of last year. I think a .250 Avg and 515 PA isn’t too far fetched for him. He’ll crack 30HR’s and end up with 33 and 79 RBI’s. Numbers like this and his ST improvement on defense and gunning down runners might also get him an All-Star nod. I think that an improved sense of discipline at the plate may also have him less antsy to swing away and settle for more walks. Perhaps not this year, but certainly next. Anyways, I think he’ll thrive under Mendoza.
I really like the kid. He is scrappy. I think he will improve. If he hits .235 with 30 home runs, I’ll be happy.
Let’s not forget all of the time with wiffle bat Nido.
Alvarez will again lead the National League catchers in home runs. He has to up his batting average and OBP to consider him for all star team. That said, he is a rising star.
458 PA 226/314/458 27 HR
.240/.320/.465 475 PA 32 HR
Hoping this will be a breakout year for Alvarez.
560 PA, .260/.300/.475 32 HR 80 RBI
It will also help if the batter behind him can hit for a good average forcing better pitches for Alvarez. That might just be McNeil. So much of the RBI will depend on getting on base in front of him. To that end Marte, Lindor and Alonso need to bat at least .270.