Here in the Piedmont we’re at the time of year where it rains every day, which on one hand stinks because rain makes me depressed but on the other hand it washes away the pollen, so it’s not without its uses. It’s just too bad that the rain extends further north and has washed out Opening Day for the Mets. But just like trying to find the silver lining with the elimination of pollen, today’s rainout allows me the chance to do a final batch of projections.
This annual projection series means something to me. Not only is it a chance to write about all of the major players, it gives everyone a chance to weigh in on what they think the player will do in the upcoming season. Because with every fiber of my being, I hate people who say they “just knew” a player was going to be great/stink after the fact. Here is the chance for all of us to say what we “just knew” six months early. It’s a chance to be a real genius, instead of a pretend one.
There are multiple people who should get a prediction of some sort before the season starts. Because of that, these will be bare-bones types of forecasts, especially compared to the 14 done previously this year.
Jose Butto – As stated earlier, my belief is that he should be in the rotation now. Instead, we have the Adrian Houser “can he get thru the order a second time” experience, instead. Few doubt that Butto will get some starts this year; hopefully, more than the seven starts he received a season ago. Let’s put him down for 75 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9.
Edwin Diaz – Somehow the consensus among Mets fans is that Diaz is the best reliever in baseball. And while he may have been that in 2022, he wasn’t particularly close in 2021. Or 2020. Or 2019, either. Diaz has elite strikeout rates. He also has as many “meh” years as he does outstanding ones. For what it’s worth, the even-numbered years tend to be the better ones. With that thought in mind, let’s go with 62 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.950 WHIP, 15.0 K/9, 0.5 HR/9.
Tylor Megill – Everyone’s abuzz with his new repertoire and in his first four appearances in Florida, Megill had results to match the hype. But his last two starts of the Spring – against the hard-hitting Nationals and Marlins – Megill allowed 7 ER in 8,2 IP. Meaningless Grapefruit League results or more of the same maddening inconsistency he’s displayed his first three years in the majors? Let’s say 140 IP, 4.67 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.3 HR/9.
Tyrone Taylor – After posting a 2.1 fWAR in 2022, Taylor went backwards in 2023, as elbow problems necessitated two trips to the IL. He closed with a strong second half of the year, starting virtually every day in August and September. With two injury risks ahead of him on the depth chart, Taylor should still see significant time as the Mets’ fourth outfielder. The crystal ball sees 390 PA, .269/.309/.457, 16 HR.
Now for some one-liners:
Mark Vientos – 222 PA, .780 OPS
Joey Wendle – 181 PA, .741 OPS
Omar Narvaez – 175 PA, .630 OPS
Zack Short – 120 PA, .666 OPS
DJ Stewart – 75 PA, .218/.294/.358
Adam Ottavino – 60 IP, 3.90 ERA
Brooks Raley – 63 IP, 3.20 ERA
Jake Diekman – 54 IP, 3.33 ERA
Drew Smith – 51 IP, 4.44 ERA
Jorge Lopez – 30 IP, 5.95 ERA
Thanks for all the work you put in to these projections. Hopefully Houser, Butto and Megill will surprise the hell out of us this year. Vientos with a .780 OPS would be great. Sad to see the bench won’t contribute much at the plate, but realistically if they were better they would be starting elsewhere. It would be an interesting comparison to take the teams in our division and compare the potential of their 4-5 bench players. Clutch hitting and experience are key factors and can’t say we have a lot of that on the bench.
What we do have is the best opening day record over the last 30 or so years. It’s the rest of the season where we fall short. Will warm up the DVR for Friday’s rescheduled opener.
780 OPS for Vientos? Maybe at Syracuse but not on a ML team.
Diaz: 38 saves, 1.78 ERA, 15 k/9
Mark Vientos – 222 PA, .780 OPS
I’ll take the Over on PA / under on OPS
Joey Wendle – 181 PA, .741 OPS
Over/Under
Omar Narvaez – 175 PA, .630 OPS
Under / Over
Zack Short – 120 PA, .666 OPS
Over / Over
DJ Stewart – 75 PA, .218/.294/.358
Under / Under
Adam Ottavino – 60 IP, 3.90 ERA
Under / Under (meaning lower)
Brooks Raley – 63 IP, 3.20 ERA
Under/Under
Jake Diekman – 54 IP, 3.33 ERA
Over / (slightly) Over
Drew Smith – 51 IP, 4.44 ERA
Over / (significantly) Under
Jorge Lopez – 30 IP, 5.95 ERA
Over / (significantly) Under
I agree with every prediction except the saves. Why only 38? I say closer to 50. The Mets will play alot of tight games.
I take the over on Vientos’ plate appearances and Butto’s innings pitched. I’ll take the under on Stewart’s plate appearances.
Megill got smacked around his last two outings but I am hoping for at least a full run lower on the ERA and a WHIP around 1.3, while the innings are around your prediction.
Lastly, I predict by June both Quintana and Houser have been replaced by Lichessi and Butto.
Lot of love for Luchessi! Another guy who always seems hurt.
Jose Butto 115 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 1 HR/9.
Edwin Diaz 60 IP, 1.85 ERA, 0.9 WHIP, 14 K/9, 0.6 HR/9.
Tylor Megill 160 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8.75 K/9, 1.2 HR/9.
Tyrone Taylor 425 PA, .245/.295/.465, 15 HR.
Mark Vientos 275 PA, .240/.285/.455, 13 HR.
Joey Wendle 275 PA, .247/.285/.350, 6 HR.
Omar Narvaez 145 PA, .230/.300/.370, 5 HR.
Zack Short 155 PA, .235/.315/.350, 5 HR.
DJ Stewart 125 PA, .230/.333/.425, 8 HR.
Adam Ottavino 58 IP, 3.50 ERA
Brooks Raley 58 IP, 3.25 ERA
Jake Diekman 58 IP, 3.15 ERA
Drew Smith 55 IP, 4.25 ERA
Jorge Lopez – 45 IP, 4.65 ERA
Diaz will have a Good Year but not like his “even” years.
62 IP
Diaz 62 IP 2.38 ERA 0.945 WHIP 14.9 K/9 0.4 HR/9
Megill is inconsistent and is suited more to be a depth starter.
98 IP 4.76 ERA 1.42 WHIP 8.7 K/9 1.4 HR/9
Taylor should more at bats as the season progresses when Mendoza realizes Bader can’t hit RHP.
291 PA 237/285/448 12 HR
Butto 60 IP 4.15 ERA 1.45 WHIP 8.4 K/9 1.1 HR/9
Vientos will be hard pressed for AB unless Baty or Short fail. 218 PA 734 OPS
Wendle 277 PA 627 OPS
Narvaez 258 PA 625 OPS
Short 206 PA 594 OPS
Stewart 136 PA 773 OPS
Ottavino 63 IP 3.17 ERA
Raley 53 IP 3.27 ERA
Diekman 58 IP 3.88 ERA
Smith 50 IP. 3.51 ERA
Lopez 63 4.81 ERA