This time last year, the expectation of most was that the Mets were going to top 95 wins. That didn’t happen and this year those expectations are considerably lower. Here’s a sampling of views of the 2024 Mets from national sites:
FanGraphs: 81-81
CBS Sports: 81-81
The Athletic: 80-82
USA Today: 78-84
Gambling site FanDuel has the team’s over/under at 80.5
The Mets have been insistent that they will be competing for a playoff spot this year. Last year, the third Wild Card in the NL had 84 wins. So, it seems like team executives would bet the over if that wouldn’t get them in trouble. Or maybe they just have a flunky do it for them. Where do you think the Mets wind up in 2024?
How many wins will the Mets record in 2024?
- 85 or more (31%, 5 Votes)
- 81-82 (31%, 5 Votes)
- 80 or fewer (31%, 5 Votes)
- 83-84 (6%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 16
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A few months ago, another site posted projections (PECOTA being one of them) that mostly tilted towards the 81-83 win range. I thought that was overstating it.
Since then, Mets fans everywhere seem to be running with the idea that 84 wins is enough when in reality, it probably is not. Last year was, in all likelihood, an abnormality. It took 87 wins in 2022. And it would have taken 87 to 89 wins in five of the seven seasons preceding that, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
83 wins seemingly would have snagged the wild card for Cincinnati in 2021 – had there been one. But there was no third wild card that year. Had there been one, Cincinnati, and the teams just behind them who conceded the race in August would have done more to pursue it. Some teams that sold at the deadline would have bought instead. Some teams that stood pat and then played youngsters in August would have played their starters more often. One of those teams likely would have exceeded 83, and done so by more than just a couple of games.
82. A tad short of the wild card, but well poised to leap forward in 2025.
There are too many question marks. Too many players that have to rebound in the offense and starting pitching. There are too many that it makes me uncomfortable. It will be a struggle to maintain .500. I am an optimistic Met fan so I chose 81-82.
I picked over 85, but with an explanation:
I feel the Mets will be in many close games this year and hope they have the good luck that the Marlins had last year in those contests. I feel the starting pitching will be spotty until July, and then the best five will be in there. I have worries about the offense. I hope they hit.
88 wins and a wildcard spot has been my pick for months. Their pen cost them many games last year and then there is that dreaded month of June. Think we fixed the pen and we will score runs and quite honestly despite not having two studs in the starting rotation like we started off last year, we do have some talent there, especially when Senga returns.
Let’s get this party started.
Martinez will help. Acuna,Gilbert and Scott might. But the hitting still is a problem, the starters are nothing special, and all that depth in the BP I don’t see. 75-78 wins and a lot of empty seats.
86-74
3rd wild card
Starting pitching surprises.
Bullpen and defense are among the leagues best
Offense gets typical yrs from Nimmo/Lindor/Alonso and a Breakout from Alvarez. It’s just enough.