The Mets started off 0-5, mostly due to a bad offense that looked like one of the worst in the entire league. Since then, they’ve gone 5-2, with three of those seven games coming in Atlanta versus a Braves team that had gone 16-4 against the Mets in the last 20 games between the two squads. And the Mets took two of three. As the Mets now stand at 5-7, what do we think of them now?
One thing we’ve seen that should be viewed as a positive is that fringe players are on a very short leash. While it was a mistake to sign Julio Teheran in the first place, the Mets moved on after one lousy start. Yohan Ramirez gets off to a poor start and then surrenders a lead by giving up 5 ER in 2 IP and is sold for cash. Michael Tonkin is misused by putting him in high-leverage situations and is DFAd after his second extra-innings loss.
We can argue that two of these players were victims of poor management. What we can’t argue is that they were great talents who deserved additional chances. When circumstances force you to part ways with fungible MLB talent, the correct choice is to let them go. The Mets had a bunch of relievers battling for a spot in the majors in Spring Training. We can’t worry about losing Ramirez and Tonkin because there are others to replace them. You can say it’s a heartless way to run a team. My take is that it’s better than to keep throwing under-performing guys out there or illegally using the IL.
Right now, my question is: How does the club treat this situation when instead of fungible players, it involves guys making at least five times more than the minimum wage? How long is the leash with Harrison Bader and his .535 OPS? How long is it for Adrian Houser and his 5.40 ERA? To be clear, my opinion is that it’s too soon to move on from them here on April 12. But it’s not too soon to be asking the question and preparing for an adjustment in their roles if things don’t turn around before much longer.
But that still leaves unanswered the question of the first paragraph. What do we think of the Mets? My opinion is that there’s enough here to hold on until the time when J.D. Martinez and Kodai Senga can return and give the team a boost. You know, if those two actually do make it to the majors this year. Perhaps Martinez can arrive on May 1 and Senga on June 1. It would be nice if their best pitcher could arrive and give the club a jolt in what typically has been the worst month of the season.
There’s been some gloom-and-doom predictions for Martinez by some commenters here. And maybe they’re right. No one should be overjoyed about an old guy with a bad back. But Martinez himself said he got an injection last year and came back in a week. It’s not outrageous to believe that he could return and be a reasonable facsimile of the 134 OPS+ player he was in 479 PA last season.
But even without Martinez, we’ve been treated to a glimpse of what the offense could look like over these last seven games. To be fair, it should be said that this includes a 16-run outing. It also includes two games where the team scored just three runs and another where they plated just two runs.
In the last seven games, the team has a .269/.353/.425 line in 280 PA. If this was their production over the entire season to date, it would be the fourth-best OPS in the majors. And it’s not because everyone is firing on all cylinders. Here’s how some of the team’s players have done in these last seven games:
Francisco Lindor – 35 PA, .458 OPS
Pete Alonso – – 33 PA, .642 OPS
Starling Marte – 33 PA, .620 OPS
Bader – 24 PA, .638 OPS
Francisco Alvarez – 19 PA, .433 OPS
That’s over half the lineup being disappointing or worse. Of course, the guys not mentioned are doing great. And it’s hard not to notice that the Mets are getting really good results from Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, after both got off to poor starts. Here’s how that duo has done in the last seven games:
Nimmo – 29 PA, 1.343 OPS
McNeil – 25 PA, .940 OPS
When the Mets went 23-22 to close out 2023, after the great selloff, it was McNeil and Nimmo leading the way. And the key was that both players were delivering power. In these last seven games, McNeil and Nimmo have combined for 7 XBH in 54 PA, including 3 HR. Their power has produced a playoff-caliber offense in this tiny sample.
It’s just seven games. And it’s among the possibilities that this will be the best seven-game streak of the year for the hitters. Yet the hope is that Alonso, Alvarez and Lindor can turn things around and that Martinez can join the party, too.
And if the Mets want to move on from any hitter or pitcher making more than a million dollars and not coming close to earning their paycheck, that would be good, as well. Even if it’s not for another month or so.
I think this team plus the coming additions is good enough to hang around long enough to be in a position to buy at the deadline. And if things go really right while the braves simultaneously have a stretch of bad luck (Murphy and strider out, fried and acuna struggling?) they can do more than just hang around. I’m seeing a lot of parallels to the 2005 into 2006 team for this season and next.
Still a 74-78 win team. Why? Until Senga returns no #1 or #2 starter. I still am not convinced they will score enough runs.
It’s just 12 games, but it is encouraging seeing the hitting starting to come back. I don’t count the final runs they scored yesterday against the Braves. Quite frankly any of us probably could’ve pitched that last inning with the same disastrous results and the Braves wisely didn’t use up one of their relievers. I also applaud Stearns for loading up on reliever possibilities enabling them to dump, run and replace. Teheran was worth a shot and kudos for spending what they did to figure out he was not worth it Another dump and run.
Would like to see Lindor get going as well as improvement from the other five starters you referenced that are dragging us down.
At 5-7 I am optimistic that we are in the right track. McNeil pulling the ball, Nimmo setting the right tone from the top of the order, and Baty are good signs of what is now working. Five innings from a starter is not sustainable for a whole season and puts too much burden on needing 3-4 relievers every game.
Call me crazy but I’m sticking with 88 wins and a wildcard spot. It’s also time that some of our competitors feel the injury bite that we always get. That would only be fair
Yes agreed – as Brian has pointed out before, the Braves have been very lucky as well as good. The tide has to turn at some point. Also – did you know that the Braves starters have thrown the 3rd fewest innings in baseball, even less than the Mets.
Brian, if a player has a history of some success lately, I get it. Stewart has homered twice this week and while he hasn’t had the biggest sample of success, even a smaller one just last year is still something. I’d give him more time. Vientos is still striking out at 33%, so he still needs to work on that.
FWIW, I don’t believe the Mets need to make any moves right now. In a couple of days they’ll call up Butto and send out a reliever. After that, who knows?
To the best of my knowledge, Megill hasn’t even thrown a bullpen session yet. He’s going to need to do a couple of rehab starts, so he’s at least 2-3 weeks away from returning. That’s probably three or more starts for Butto and Houser to show something demanding to stay in the rotation. And that’s assuming no setbacks with Megill.
They do what they have to with the bullpen, taking full advantage of the opportunity to send guys to the minors five times. And if you have to lose a Nunez or Jay along the way, we’ll live with that.
And then three weeks or so with a Martinez promotion and accompanying roster move. If forced to say right now, I’d move Wendle. But a lot can change in the interim.
I think Zack Short’s time on the roster is nigh. Has he even gotten into a game in a week? Couldn’t even sub him in during yesterday’s route. Doesn’t really provide any sort of purpose for this team.
Short’s saving grace may be his ability to play OF if necessary. I won’t shed any tears if he goes.
Their record is what I was expecting, an average team that struggling to achieve a .500 record.
The top of the rotation has been exceptional and Butto should join it this weekend The bullpen has seven pitchers that are pitching very good. Smith and Garrett are the surprises.
A 16 run outburst is skewing the offensive statistics. Lindor has to breakout of his offensive slump but his defense has been stellar. Don’t forget that his double and homerun are responsible for one of the five wins they have. Bader and Taylor should be platooning in CF. There isn’t any need for two light hitting infielders on the bench. Vientos should be called up. The offense needs more balance and more consistency.
Just as the 0-5 start was too small a sample to panic, the 5-2 stretch since is too small to celebrate. At 5-7, the Mets are a mediocre team 12 games in. Mediocre is what they were before the season started. It’s what they will be after 162 games. Meanwhile, across town, the Yankees have Judge and Soto on top of Cole and they’re off to a 10-3 start. Could Soto and Snell have made a difference for the Mets as a playoff contender? Probably.