Have the New York Mets already decided it is “starting figuring out next year” time? Has someone in the front office decided the Mets need to be well above .500 before rolling into June, and if not, the decision to fish or cut bait must be made quickly. Even as the electrons were drying on this page in 2022, the Mets took a .650 team and staggered around .500 (13-12 .520 in a .623 season).
Last year, as the bells tolled at the end of May, the Mets were five games back, and the warnings sang out – “Fill these holes, for June is nigh!” Hands were sat on. Shoulders were shrugged. Platitudes were offered. And dreams were drained.
Here we sit on Memorial Day, May 27, imagining a glorious rise, where Pete Alonso shakes off his hibernation and begins hitting home runs with great frequency. Where Jeff McNeil switches to a lighter bat and begins to rap base hits into the gap. Really, where the team does not just flollop along as a decent offense, and mediocre pitching, dragging themselves to an 81-81 season, only by winning the last 5 games of the year.
Are Mets fans pessimistic? Many outsiders think so, but Mets fans invented the phrase “Ya Gotta Believe”. Personally, this fan does the math for the Mets to make the playoffs, where anything can happen, right up until the day they are eliminated, regardless of who the team is playing. Does David Stearns think like that, or does he think like a Cubs fan “There’s always next year”?
Given the first two months of the season, the Braves recent losses, Edwin Diaz’ struggles, the Mets aging roster, Stearns has to plan for 2025, in as much as there needs to be a serious evaluation of the talent on the team. He needs to understand younger players can do. Can Brett Baty play at the major league level above average? Can Mark Vientos? Can – oh, that’s all the Mets have under 25. Yes, Francisco Alvarez is 22, but already established as a player.
Baty is the only player on the Mets roster with more than *60* plate appearances that will be under 30 next year, as Alonso is 29. Forty-year-old research tells us players, the vast majority, peak from ages 26-29, meaning practically every non-pitcher player on the Mets roster is past their peak. Every forecast for those players is lower than the previous one. That’s a disaster, and not what Stearns signed up for – he’s no Turkey.
As much as we may hate to do it, because June is going to look worse than the year to date, make the trades for youths. Hey, the Braves need an outfielder – send Starling Marte over. Or McNeil. You may or may not have noticed, but their starting LF is Jarred Kelenic. Yeah, that one. He’s 24 years old. No, he isn’t great, yet, but players develop and typically peak from ages 26-29, so he has time.
Lastly, another problem with the Mets is the manager. Carlos Mendoza may be a heckuva bench coach, but he is poor at pitching staff management and apparently has not selected someone to advise him who is.
Would everyone put Diaz in those situations that blew up for him? Probably. At least unless your analytics staff was advising you Diaz’ velocity and movement were both down still, and he probably needed a bit more strengthening for the month of April. And you listened.
Aside from that, which is hard to find much fault – Diaz is the anchor, but Mendoza watched Reed Garrett on Friday May 24 surrender five runs, and never took him out. Any reliever that comes in a game and gets hit generally should not face a seventh batter, and certainly not the seventh batter that represents the lead run. The cows are about to get out of the barn. This relief pitcher does not have “it”.
This is the pattern for Mendoza. He seems to be thinking “I don’t think he’ll give up a key hit here…oops. Better take him out now.” It’s brutal and amateurish, given what we all saw with slow hooks in the past.
The good news is this season is likely not going to end up with the Mets hoping to make a playoff run. Stearns should use the next four months getting the team younger, and assessing the talent he already has, from the manager, to the coaching staff, to his analytics team, and every position on the field.
And he should start with Vientos on the field every day to see what he can do or develop into.
I was one who became annoyed that the Mets did sign Martinez at the last minute. The front office obviously panicked that Vientos had not torn the cover off the ball in ST, but Vientos has always started the year slow. And now? Your right Brian, there is no reason he shouldn’t be playing every day. If not at 3B, then as DH or even spelling Alonso over at 1B.
It’s obvious that this front office does not understand the true Mets fan. We are willing to endure down years if a concerted plan for the future is taking place. But no, they go with the band-aid and hope method….we see how that’s working! Attendance and interest is down, and the payroll remains bloated.
I’m at the point that I hope Alonso is traded and that this team is “blown up”, as much as you despise those sentiments Brian, a lot of the fan base is just sick and tired of the years of smoke being blown up our keister by the Mets, regarding the product being put on the field. I had high hopes for Stearns, but not anymore. I’m done for 2024. Sayonara.
Vientos not on the field regularly is a head scratcher.
For whatever reason, when they called up Vientos, they kept Baty on the roster. If Baty’s here, he’s got to play some. There have been 11 games since Vientos was called up and he’s played in 7 of them. Vientos is in the lineup later today so that’s 8 out of 12.
It’s a tough balancing act, not much different from the outfield and finding playing time for Stewart and Taylor. Bader’s playing more than I expected but the guy’s got a .361 BABIP so what are you gonna do? A guy’s on a hot streak and you keep playing him as long as the hits keep falling in.
I’m more concerned about the pitching and how to make the rotation work. Houser going four innings yesterday was great although I wish they started to be more aggressive with the SP, especially when they’re running a 6-man rotation.
I didn’t believe this was a playoff squad when the season started, so I’m not too depressed about how it’s shaken out so far. I wish I had a better feel for what Stearns’ plan was but I try to comfort myself with the fact that he’s pretty smart and it’s highly likely that he does have a plan. Maybe it’s another month before it becomes clear to us outsiders.
One thing that I hope they are at least discussing internally is extending Manaea. It’s a player option for him for next year and right now, it’s difficult to see him opting in for another year. He’s been good both home and away – unlike Severino and his 5.16 road ERA – and it wouldn’t be too risky for a 2 or 3-year deal that starts in 2025.
I’ll be boring and agree on basically everything you wrote. Only difference with Baty/Vientos and Stewart/Taylor is that the latter are more complimentary type. They really need to find out what Vientos’ bat is going to be at the big league level. If he can show he can be legit 800+ OPS and 30+ HR guy, they’ll find a position even if DH, he’ll soften the highly possible loss of Alonso’s power, and put the team in much better position headed to the offseason. Being able to count on Alvarez and Vientos for RH power, Nimmo and Lindor as passing prime vets that can still contribute, with some young possible table setters coming….that could justify some crazy money on Soto with a couple of quality arms to start to be taken seriously.
Stearns knows who will be free agents and knows their value in the trade market. He doesn’t know if his younger players are MLB caliber because many them will been hurt. Maybe it’s time to find out.
Severino has value and Senga could replace him as SP1. Manaea has value and Scott could move to SP2. Quintana could be has some value and Butto could be SP3. Megill remains at SP4 and Peterson could be SP5. Houser has no value so kept him for long relief. Lucchesi and Tisdale are the depth starters in Syracuse.
Alonso would fetch a haul and Vientos at 1B is promising. Right now, Vientos should
play the majority of the games at third until Alonso and Martinez are traded.
Martinez and his reputation and get value and Stewart could be LHB DH.
Bader , at this point, could get some value and Taylor could replace him in CF.
The Ottavino could have some value. Smith and Lopez are having good years but really they wouldn’t get anything worth having. There aren’t really replacements in the minors so kept them.
If the Mets pay some remaining salary for the free agents traded they should get more value for them. Trading free agents would be a digression but last year after the trade deadline the team had a better record and this year’s team have more established replacements.
All of this is premature but no matter the record, they should have some selling to enhance the 2025 team.
Metsense, agree 100% but want to add one thought of my own to your comment and Chris’ great article:
– I believe Alonso will sign for a combination of the best hitter’s park and the most money, hence, there is no reason to give loyalty because you won’t get it. He will use Cohen like Yamamoto did. Trade him, and if he really wants to be a Met, let him prove it in December.
Two things make me feel Alonso is full of crap:
1. Hiring Scott Boras right before free agency when you had your other agent and had a relationship with that person until now that you will get your big payday, and you drop them now: Loyal, huh?
2. I get a kick out of the I❤️NY shirts. Has he worn them before, ever?
” Alonso will fetch a haul ” ? Who is going to give you a ,” haul ” for 2-3 month rental player ? If you wanted a ,” haul” , Stearns should have traded him this past winter
I was advocating trading him in the off season or extending him. That is in the past. Now and we have to deal with the present. Haul might have been a poor choice of word. I think he would get similar to what they got with Scherzer or Verlander last year.
So much of what we complain about this team’s performance comes down to inconsistent hitting from the core of Nimmo, Lindor Alonso and McNeil and in the last 2-3 weeks, an overused pen. Those four hitters are far off their baseball card stats and have failed by and large to get timely hits. Thought it was a mistake that Vientos was not the opening day DH when Martinez was working his way back from rehab. Time to let the kids have a turn to see what you’ve got in what is rapidly becoming a lost season. Sell now before everyone tries to do so and competes for teams top prospects.
Can you get your best deal if you don’t shop around first and if the buyers aren’t motivated enough? I agree with the Vientos thought, and ask how much of a sell-off do you have now, full tear down?
Also, offense is down just about everywhere. Just think where the Mets could be if there bullpen didn’t give away five winnable games lately, three by Diaz. Why do you think the bullpen is overused?
I believe when you are just getting 5-6 from the starter, and relief arms are so fragile, that you end up throwing a lot pen innings. I have no other documented stats to back up my opinion.
I enjoy the Mr. Dial’s hostility
Perhaps the honeymoon is over?
Many of yous were suffering from “battered fan syndrome” after enduring years of ownership by… what were their names again?
And anyway, yous thought billionaire Stevie (though no friend of say, SEC or GameStop) was gonna make things right again by spreading his (potentially ill-gotten) Monopoly money all over the place
Funny thing, though I’m rarely right about baseball (since it’s speculation in its purest form), I did express concern that 2024 was going to be their first 90+ loss season since… can’t recall how long ago that last one was
The reason for my concern was the Mets having nothing close to an ace starter, as well as neither legit No 2 nor 3
I have to say that this is the most hopeless I have been as a Mets fan since the days of Art Howe. Perhaps it’s because I’ve seen more games this year since I left NYC in 1988
Hope the above has cheered yous up, because I really am a jolly bloke, and this all is rather humorous…
And yous all need some cheering up