Lately, a lot has been made about how many close games the Mets are playing. As if that’s a bad thing. After yesterday’s 8-7 win over the Nationals, the Mets have played 21 one-run games and 13 decided by two runs. Since they’ve played 60 games overall, that’s 57% that are decided by fewer than three runs. The Mets are 10 games under .500 overall at 25-35. But when they play those close games, they’re 18-16. So, instead of complaining about the number of close games, we should be grateful. Because when the game’s decided by three or more runs, the Mets are 7-19.
Conventional Wisdom, at least in the 20th Century, is that what made a team good was their performance in one-run games. But every year we see good teams with losing records in one-run games and vice-versa. So far this year, the Mets (12-9) are one of six teams to have a losing record overall yet be over .500 in one-run games. The 29-31 Rays are tied for the best winning percentage in one-run games with a .750 mark.
It’s not random, as generally good teams will have good records in one-run games. It’s just that what really separates the good teams and the bad teams is their record in blowouts, which Baseball-Reference calls games decided by five or more runs. The Yankees and Phillies are tied for the most wins in the majors. The Yankees have a .625 winning percentage in one-run games, which is really good. But they have an .824 mark in blowouts, which is outstanding. The Phillies winning percentages are .588 and .810, respectively.
Given their 7-19 record in games decided by three or more runs, the Mets’ record in blowouts is a respectable 5-7. It’s those games decided by three or four runs that are killing them.
If the bullpen did their job the team would have a better record overall. The injury of Diaz, Raley and Smith plus the meltdown of Lopez and his DFA has stressed the bullpen. Ottavino, Garrett and Diekman are paying the price. Nunez and Young are stepping up and SRF and Houser have been reliable long relievers. Mendoza has to learned how to used them and he is learning on the fly because the the injuries. One or two runs games gives the impression that the team is getting close to being a team better. One or two adjustments could right the team or is this just a Fatal Attraction?
It’s losing 10 games after leading in the 7-8-9 innings. It’s the inability to shut the door.