A look at Luis Severino’s 4-2 record and 3.12 ERA

One of the feel-good stories of the year for the Mets has been the performance of Luis Severino. A star with the Yankees back in 2017-18, Severino had fallen on hard times, due mostly to an assortment of injuries. He was quickly identified as an early target in free agency and he signed a one-year deal to move across town. Severino has been all the Mets could have hoped for, as he’s stayed healthy while posting a 4-2 record with a 3.12 ERA. With Kodai Senga yet to throw a pitch this year, Severino has become the de facto ace of the club.

In a season where much more has gone wrong than gone right, it’s more important than ever to celebrate the wins. And thru Flag Day, signing Severino has unquestionably been a win for the Mets. Score one here for David Stearns.

But one of the things that we have to do – whether a player is going good or bad – is to look at the underlying metrics and see how the player has arrived to his current status. For example, Brandon Nimmo is having a down year at the plate but if you examine his numbers over at Statcast, outside of his strikeouts, every offensive number he’s posted should have led to a better season. His expected wOBA is 50 points higher than his actual output. There are reasons to think Nimmo can and should turn things around moving forward.

On the flip side, things are not so necessarily rosy for Severino.

We know that Citi Field has played as an extreme pitcher’s park this season. And Severino has made eight of his 13 starts at home. His ERA is 1.64 runs lower in home games. Thru his first four road starts, Severino’s road ERA was north of five but a strong outing against the sub-.500 Nationals his last time out, lowered his ERA away from Citi Field to 4.11 for the year.

And speaking of facing clubs with losing records, 10 of Severino’s 13 starts this year have come against clubs with a sub-.500 record, including two against the 23-45 Marlins. You can only pitch against the teams on the schedule when your turn in the rotation comes up. But while we can’t hold the teams he’s faced against him, we have to be at least a little suspicious of how he’ll fare in the future against good teams like the Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers.

The Mets have faced the three NL division leaders 15 times and Severino has pitched in just one of those, when he allowed 11 hits and six runs in five innings against the Brewers.

Maybe Severino will continue his good fortune to pitch more games at home than on the road and more games against the poor teams than the good ones. But even with how the schedule has favored him to date, Severino’s peripherals are not as good as his results. His 3.12 ERA is a very strong mark. But Severino has a 3.92 FIP and a 4.18 xFIP, numbers that should throw some cold water on what he’s produced to date with favorable matchups.

In his heyday with the Yankees, Severino posted K/9 numbers in double digits, with a 10.71 mark in 2017 and a 10.35 in 2018. But this year, his K/9 sits at just 6.92, which ranks 62 among the 75 pitchers who qualify for the FanGraphs leaderboards. Last year, only four pitchers on the leaderboards had a sub-7.00 K/9 and their ERAs were 3.81, 4.78, 5.20 and 6.28 – not an encouraging sign.

To succeed with a low strikeout rate, you have to do everything else well. And Severino has a .251 BABIP and an 0.69 HR/9, two really strong numbers. But while he’s excelling in those marks, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to keep those up over an entire season. Lifetime, Severino has a .286 BABIP and a 1.15 HR/9.

As a free agent signed in the offseason, Severino is eligible to be traded on June 15. Neither Cot’s nor Spotrac list him with any type of no-trade clause. But the Mets are unlikely to trade him in the next four weeks or so. The team is still in the Wild Card chase and it would be a surprise if any big trades are made before July 22.

From July 1 to July 22, the Mets play four games against the Nats, four against the Pirates, three more against the Nats, three against the Rockies and four against the Marlins. That’s 18 straight games against teams with a losing record. And the three before those are against the Astros, who currently are below .500 but are playing better here recently.

It seems likely that the club will wait until that stretch is over before they make any big buy/sell decisions. But if they are sellers, it seams reasonable that Severino will be one of their more-attractive chits. May his luck hold out until at least then. And among things that have gone right for Severino this year, we should also mention his average run support of 5.60 runs per game. Not too bad from a team that averages 4.40 runs per game.