Several days ago, in response to the suspension of Edwin Diaz, Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote the following:
Thus, some nimble roster maneuvering may be required.
For example, it wouldn’t be shocking if David Peterson and Tylor Megill both got optioned to Triple A following their next starts — assuming the Mets stick with their current rotation for the next few games — for relievers. Then, when those turns in the rotation pop up again, the Mets could option those relievers for Christian Scott and Jose Buttó. To be clear, that’s just one path the Mets may take, and there are more.
My reaction to that scenario — If this is what happens, the Diaz suspension will be a blessing in disguise.
Peterson may be the ideal guy to insert into the rotation once Kodai Senga returns and you need an extra starter when there are no days off. But having him as one of the five regular rotation guys right now seems like a mistake. Megill pitches later today and the hope is that he can replicate his start against the Dodgers on May 28, when he threw seven scoreless innings. But in four starts since then, Megill has allowed 15 ER in 17.2 IP for a 7.64 ERA.
Butto had a 3.08 ERA in seven starts and then was sent to Syracuse. In his seven games since that demotion, Butto has a 2.97 ERA and that includes a start with 7 ER in 3.2 IP. And the walks issue that plagued him this year in the majors has turned around, as Butto has a 3.2 BB/9 since being sent to Triple-A. In the preseason, my thought was that Butto was clearly a better option for the rotation than Adrian Houser. And now it’s Megill that he should replace.
My hope is that Megill pitches today and gets sent down to Syracuse with Butto taking his place. Butto pitched Friday night – 7 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 Ks – meaning he could pitch Wednesday, which would give Jose Quintana an extra day of rest.
Peterson is scheduled to make his next start on Monday.
Scott last pitched on June 25, with his next start likely to come Sunday. That would put him on target to pitch on July 5, which hopefully will be in the majors against the Pirates. When the Mets sent Scott down, the idea was that it would be easier to limit his innings in the minors. And, indeed, Scott has thrown just 17 IP in four starts for Syracuse. But his last two starts, he threw a combined 8.1 IP and 153 pitches. So how much wear and tear have they really saved?
We all want to do whatever we can to keep pitchers healthy. But just like there’s no data to show that 98 pitches is safe but 110 pitches means certain injury, there’s no published studies that show a 40-IP increase is safe but a 55-inning increase means surgery is inevitable. Furthermore, it’s my opinion that we need to treat young pitchers with kid gloves but older pitchers don’t require that. Scott’s not 21; he’s 25.
A college reliever, Scott hasn’t thrown 100 IP in a season since high school and that’s assuming he did it then. He threw 57 IP between college and the minors in 2021, 71.2 IP between the minors and the AFL in 2022 and 87.2 IP in the minors last year. What’s the optimal increase for 2024? Not one person on the planet knows.
You’ll never get criticized for being careful with young pitchers. Well, that’s not exactly right. The Nationals held Stephen Strasburg out of the playoffs in 2012 – his final start was actually Sep. 8 – in an effort to limit his innings coming back from TJ surgery. They were criticized at the time, without a doubt. And that kid gloves treatment didn’t keep him from a shortened career. It should be noted that Strasburg went from 44.1 IP combined between the majors and minors in 2011 as a 22 year old to 159.1 at age 23. That 115-inning increase – while coming off surgery! – at age 23 probably wasn’t smart.
But Scott’s not coming off surgery and he’s not 23, either. Could he handle a 115-IP increase? None of us know. But it’s probably a safe bet he would be better equipped to do so than Strasburg in 2012. But the key issue is that type of increase isn’t on the table. He’d have to throw over 200 innings this year for that to happen. Right now, he has a combined 70 IP between the majors and minors. The Mets have 83 games remaining this year. If he was called up today, he would have around 16 starts the rest of the way. If he averaged 6 IP per start, that would be 96. Adding that to the 70 innings he’s already thrown, we’re looking at 166 IP.
But with Senga in the rotation and extra pitchers involved, he’s not going to make 16 starts. And it’s unlikely that he would average 6 IP per start, either. In his first stint in the majors, Scott averaged 5.5 IP per start. If we say he makes 12 starts at 5.5 IP – that works out to 66 IP or 136 IP for the year. Is a 48.1-IP increase for Scott acceptable? Again, none of us know. But it seems like a point on which reasonable people can disagree.
Of course, we would have the potential issue of playoff starts and extra innings there. That’s an important thing to contemplate. But at this point, it can be considered a bridge to cross when we get there.
My hope is that Sammon’s speculation turns out correct and that the Diaz injury results in a return to the MLB rotation for Butto and Scott in the next 10 days or so. It’s my opinion that those two pitchers give the Mets a better chance to win games than Megill and Peterson. And we all want to be playing meaningful games in September and beyond.
The Mets have a need to bolster bullpen because of the Diaz suspension and the injuries of Raley, Smith and SRF. They should have promoted Scott and Butto instead of Young and Adcock and put them into the rotation replacing Peterson and Megill. Peterson and McGill would be multi-inning relievers in the bullpen. If Quintana or Manaea falters in for a few starts then Peterson or Megill would get another chance in the rotation and have the faltered starter become a multi- inning reliever. Let’s face it, Met starters are not giving them length in games so more multi-inning relievers in the bullpen is a common sense solution.
Seems Megill should consider today’s start as critical to whether he stays on the roster or gets sent down. And even he has a good start and gets sent down it should be seen as roster posturing so that some relievers could be brought up. I think Butto and Scott deserve to be brought up to see if they can replicate what they did at Syracuse back in Citi Field. Given the 17 straight games coming up, they’ll likely be called up.
Quintana did a nice job yesterday. Limiting the Astros to just two runs, but his inability to throw more strikes and pitch to contact makes his four inning start a huge liability. Quintana gave us four innings, 3 2/3, six innings, 6 1/3, and four innings in his last five starts of which the Mets won four out of those five games.
You mentioned Megill’s successful start against the Dodgers back on May 28 where he went seven innings and gave up three hits and no runs. In his last four starts he only managed to pitch five innings, 4 2/3, five innings, and a disastrous three innings. The Mets won two of those five starts.
Manaea gave us five innings, 5 2/3 innings, and five innings in his last three starts, and won two of those three games.
Severino has been the workhorse giving the Mets 5 1/3 innings, eight innings, six innings, 6 1/3, and six innings with the Mets winning all five games. Happy to have him on the mound for Sunday’s game.
Peterson gave the Mets five innings, 6 2/3, five innings, six innings, and 4 1/3 innings as the Mets won four of those five starts.
It is simply too difficult to win on a consistent basis if you need to throw four relievers in every single game. And who can argue with the manner in which Captain Hook has managed his pitching staff? This is where David Stearns needs to continue to earn his money by shuffling around the roster, and looking to add a significant back of the bullpen arm at the deadline, in preparation of the starting pitchers continuing to throw a short amount of innings. They also need to unleash some of these pitchers and let them throw another 10 to 20 before they pull them out at some arbitrary number.
It is a great catch 22 that they pull a pitcher before he gets to the third time through the order, versus working with the pitcher to change his approach to get through the third time through the order.
Since I always consider my glass half full, I hope that the current met relievers continue to step up and show their worth as we wait for Diaz to come back. And someone associated with this team also needs to take some blame for the crap that was on Diaz’s hand that got him tossed out of the game and suspended. Plain and simple, while the decision to throw a pitcher out appears arbitrary, sticky stuff on your hands still seems to be cheating and you would hope that Diaz is better than that. Maybe not.
Let me add that the way the Mets have been hitting in June sure covered for the short innings unlike the month of May.
There was a study done in the early 2000’s which showed that when a young pitcher’s workload increases by more than 20% from one year to the next, the chances of injury in the following (i.e. third) year increase significantly. While that is not the same as “surgery is inevitable”, it does provide at least some basis for managing innings for developing pitchers.
Like it or not, every team does it, and it is simply a fact of life that we have to live with.
When Scott was sent down, the circumstances were different. The team was 23-33 and going nowhere. The plan and priorities were different.
My perception is that Stearns had seen what Butto can do, and now needs to finish vetting Megill (and Peterson). Butto and Scott got 6 to 8 starts each. I suspect that Megill and Peterson will get the same before Stearns makes his definitive decisions on where all 4 belong in the pecking order.
Megill has just barely had his six starts. But he’s been bad enough over the last four to warrant being replaced by Butto. For what its worth, Mendoza has made statements that indicate that Megill may now be on a very short leash – as little as one more start.