This is David Peterson’s fifth season pitching for the Mets. In that time span he’s pitched in 88 games and has made 72 starts. And despite all of that time in the majors, he’s kind of an enigma. If someone asked you if Peterson was good – how would you answer? It seems impossible to say anything definitively about him. Tylor Megill has made 66 appearances as a Met and it seems we have a much better grasp on him as a pitcher than we do with Peterson.
Part of the issue with Peterson has been the injuries that have impacted both his 2021 and 2023 seasons. In the earlier year, he had an oblique injury and last season it was a hip problem that required surgery and delayed the start of his 2024 campaign. In those two seasons, Peterson had a 73 and an 82 ERA+, respectively. The other three seasons he’s had triple-digit ERA+ numbers, including a 126 ERA+ here in 2024 thru his first eight starts.
But even this year – are we convinced he’s good? Yeah, the ERA is a sparkling 3.09 but that also comes with a 4.54 FIP and a 5.36 xERA. He has a spotless 4-0 record but he’s also that pitcher who’s the anti-deGrom, the one who pitches on the day the offense comes to life. The Mets have scored an average of 8.1 runs per game in Peterson’s starts this season.
At this point, it would be unfair to remove Peterson from the rotation. Yet, three starts from now, there’s no telling how we might feel. There’s no outcome that seems too far-fetched in his upcoming outings. He could be great, he could be average, he could be a disaster. And none of those would surprise me.
Hopefully by the end of the year, the real Peterson will be clear to all of us.
LOL, yea, that’s pretty correct. However, there is a hope. Last year, after came back from injury, he had a 3.38 ERA or 4.10 FIP, with a .396 SLG. In fact, if you take a look at all his good years, his SLG% against was always under .400. In the years he wasn’t as successful, his SLG% against was over .400. So, his numbers are the same. It’s how many starts he gets at Citifield, I suppose. The lefty Severino?
The return was boosted by a stint in the bullpen.
He returned to the rotation in August and all 10 appearances the remainder of the season were starts. In 48.2 IP he had a 3.88 ERA, a 4.39 FIP and a .413 SLG.
If the Mets are unable to trade for a lefty reliever, they should give thought to moving Peterson to the pen. He’d be an upgrade on Diekman.
Back in the olden days (‘60s-‘70s-‘80s) the Mets were well known for developing pitchers, at the expense of developing hitters. Koosman, Seaver, Matlack, Doc and more. Can’t remember the last time in the last several years, aside from Jake deGrom and Matt Harvey that a Mets pitcher exploded on to the scene with some dominance over the competition. For years now we believed that would be Peterson and Megill. But they have both been rather inconsistent to the point where they are both considered number three starters at best.
The reality is that we cannot give up on Peterson. They need to figure out a way to help him to be consistent and hold the opposition down when the Mets don’t go crazy with crooked numbers on the board. He needs to continue to step up and sure of the areas where he is not consistent. Megill on the other hand needs to go to the pen where he can survive for a couple of innings and not implode. Biggest worry in a short series is that we don’t have a single dominant pitcher in the rotation, unless Senga comes back as the Senga from last year. Just for fun, did everyone notice that Yamamoto just got transferred to the 60 day IL? Glad we saved $350 million on that lost chase for a potential star.
Agreed on Yamamoto – we surely wouldn’t have needed that add’l headache and also Carlos Correa is hurting now as well.
He has stood up. He is a backend starter. It is what it is.. He is better than Megill but not better than Butto. He can’t consistently command all his pitches and that is why he is a backend starter. He will be 29 and the Mets have control of him until 2027. For that reason that he will be on the team next year, should remain in the rotation and Butto should replace Quintana. Quintana has experience in the bullpen. The Mets would like a lefty in the bullpen. Quintana isn’t in the Mets plans next year.
Right now, they should leave it alone because it’s working until it is not working.
Smart money may be on him being a backend SP. But in his last 21 starts he has a 3.34 ERA. Sure, 21 starts isn’t a lot. But it’s not nothing. There are 124 starters with 100 IP in this time frame and Peterson’s 3.34 ERA ranks 28th.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2023&ind=0&startdate=2023-06-27&enddate=2024-11-01&team=0&qual=100&stats=sta&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
I wouldn’t wager on him continuing at this rate. But I wouldn’t wager on him putting up a 5.00 ERA the rest of 2024, either.
He strikes me as a variant of Oliver Perez. Flashes of brilliance, never quite living up to potential, hanging around the fringes. Not good enough to be a lock in the rotation but also not bad enough to DFA. He’ll probably kick around MLB for a long time. I think Metsense nailed it. He’s a #5 starter (maybe #6 in an upcoming scheme.).