No matter how you slice it, 2024 has been a bad year for Jeff McNeil. Combine that with his rotten 2021 and his 2023 season where he was bad for the first four months of the year, there’s a lot to be concerned about his ability to be productive going forward. At the same time, he rebounded in 2022 to put up the best season of his career. And the final two months of ’23, McNeil had a .302/.344/.472 line in his final 228 PA. Knowing that, should we bet on him being done as a productive hitter?
For better or worse, McNeil is the type of hitter who needs a strong BABIP to be productive. In his first three seasons – two of them partial ones – McNeil had a .342 BABIP in 1,024 PA. Then he had a .280 mark in 2021 before rebounding in 2022 to a .353 BABIP. This year, he has just a .234 mark. And, yeah, it’s a little of the chicken or the egg thing. But no hitter is going to be great with a .234 BABIP, much less McNeil.
And for whatever reason, McNeil is really struggling when he hits the ball in the air, regardless if that’s a fly ball or a line drive. As a whole, MLB batters have an .812 OPS when they hit a fly ball and a 1.496 OPS when they hit a line drive. For McNeil this year, those numbers are .364 and 1.154, respectively.
McNeil has a lifetime .554 OPS when he hits a fly ball. Last year he had easily the worst mark of his career with a .404 OPS on fly balls and this year it’s .40 points worse than that. Lifetime, McNeil has a 1.441 OPS on line drives and last year he posted a 1.415 mark. The results with fly balls are down and the results with line drives are in the gutter.
He wouldn’t be the first player to be done in his early 30s and McNeil is in his age-32 season this year. But those results with line drives seem beyond age-related decline and into “unlucky” territory.
When things are going bad, you clutch at any positive thing you see. With McNeil, we can see that in his last nine games, he has a .761 OPS, even with a .250 BABIP. Four of his seven hits have gone for extra-bases. It’s not much but given what he’s done the rest of the year, it stands out in a good way.
The easiest thing to do is say he’s done and root for him to be benched. But anytime he comes up here in the second half, I’ll be paying attention to how he does when he hits the ball in the air, specifically with line drives. Maybe these line drives he hits are soft liners to the infield and that OPS is deserved. Or maybe he’s hitting the ball hard enough but right at fielders. Neither one would surprise me.
I’m on record in another thread predicting a strong 2nd half for a McNeil. I think he hits .300/350/400 from here.
If the Mets make a serious second half run, IMHO, McNeil will likely be a big part of that. He’s a great athlete and a gamer.
There’s so much we’ll never really know, as fans and I have a bunch of unanswered questions.
1. Does his love of golf affect his hitting? I know that the reverse can be true. Baseball players usually have a huge slice in golf because their back hand is too strong. I have no idea what the reverse impact is (i.e. what problems to golfers have with swinging a bat.). I know that baseball players have played golf for a century, but McNeil is an exceptional, scratch golfer. Does this make a difference?
2. Does he put in the work? Is he hitting the cage? Does he take extra batting practice? Does he watch film? Pham’ a comments from last year cast a bit of a shadow.
3. When he’s playing well, he was the Mets version of Danny Ainge, with the constant scowl, and a resting f***-off face when he made an out. That act wears thin when his OPS is under .600. How does that play in the clubhouse?
4. He signed a huge contract undoubtedly more than he ever dreamed when he was in his mid-20s, playing in the minors. What impact does this have? Can’t say I’d blame him.
For whatever it’s worth, I live in McNeil’s hometown area, after decades in Austin, TX. Often when I wear my Mets hat around here, I get some “hey, I love Jeff McNeil” comments. (FWIW, Robin Ventura apparently lives around here somewhere as does Lou Ferrigno.)