The Mets’ offense was so good for so long that it became okay to imagine that it could overcome mediocre starting pitching. Then the second half started against a Marlins squad that had six starting pitchers on the IL and the Mets’ offense went into hibernation. Normally, you would shrug your shoulders and say something like – slumps happen. But these are games that the club needs to win and yet they’ve dropped two of the first three games.
For about 10 years, the Mets have been cleaning up against the Marlins. And yet this season, when they have a better team, they’re just 4-5 against a club that’s 30 games under .500 for the year. So, we’ll get another decade of, “The Marlins always play us tough.” Needless to say, my disgust with the offense right now is tangible.
Yeah, yeah – it’s only three games. But in those three games against a team that, quite frankly, stinks, the offense has a .222/.319/.303 line. How on earth does Jeff McNeil have two homers yet the team has a dismal .081 ISO? In 116 PA, the Mets have just four extra-base hits. There are the two McNeil homers, doubles by Jose Iglesias and Pete Alonso and that’s it. When a player has a higher OBP than SLG, it’s troublesome. What happens when it’s an entire team?
You’re rolling your eyes, saying it’s only three games. But is it?
Alonso has a .571 OPS over his last 17 games
Francisco Alvarez has a .619 OPS over his last 14 games
Harrison Bader has three hits in his last 26 PA, with no walks.
J.D. Martinez has a .580 OPS in his last 20 games
Brandon Nimmo has 12 hits in his last 68 PA
DJ Stewart has a .451 OPS in his last 27 games
Luis Torrens has a .576 OPS in his last nine games
Mark Vientos has more infield hits than XBH over the past two weeks
We got so enchanted by most of the team clicking at the same time that we’ve collectively overlooked how the majority of the team has been scuffling here for more than three games. The biggest issue has been the three and four hitters – Martinez and Alonso – being sub-Plaweckian at the same time. It’s tough to keep performing at an elite level when your two big guns are shooting blanks.
And who knows what you’ll get from the starting pitchers.
Sean Manaea has six starts where he’s completed six innings and 13 where he hasn’t
In his last 13 games, Jose Quintana has 20.1 scoreless innings against the Nationals and Cubs and 34 ER in 48.1 IP (6.33 ERA) against everyone else
Christian Scott has a 5.49 ERA and a 6.10 FIP since his recall from the minors
Luis Severino has a 4.54 ERA and a 4.93 FIP in his last six games
Winning cures everything and the Mets have done okay in this department this month, so a lot of bad and troublesome stuff is getting ignored. And with few good teams in the NL this year, it’s not difficult to imagine the Mets reaching the playoffs.
Virtually everyone is losing their shirt over the bullpen and no one wants to say that the team needs a bunch of starting pitching. Kodai Senga can only do so much. Severino falls apart against good teams, Scott isn’t being helped by how the team is using him, Quintana has zero room for error, Peterson is doing it with mirrors and you never know what you’re getting from Manaea.
My opinion is that the offense will be okay but you could talk me into an upgrade in RF. My opinion is that the bullpen will be okay but you could talk me into a lefty upgrade. But if David Stearns wants to get the biggest bang for his buck, he’ll get a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Or three.
I agree with most of this. I remember at the beginning of the year, I thought the starting rotation was 4th place quality. Every pitcher other than Senga who Stearns dredged up is from the bargain bin and they were there for a reason. Scott was not part of the rotation to start the season, but it is pretty clear now that they rushed him up and he is really not quite ready. The only point I disagree with is saying that Peterson is a mirage. I don’t think so. He always was pretty talented and there’s no reason not to think he is achieving his potential now.
The thing is that all of the ERA estimators paint Peterson as significantly worse than his ERA
FIP – 4.53
xFIP – 4.53
botERA – 4.61
SIERA 4.62
xERA – 5.35
These models all see him as vastly overachieving in his eight starts this year
I like articles that explain reality for what it is, and this is an excellent example if that.
The fact is the Mets over hit their way through June making it a sort of mirage of the team it thinks it could be versus the team it is. The fear I had, and remain having, is what happens when the team plays to its approximate .500 level after being (unreasonably to expect) the best team in the major leagues. The crazy fun June propelled us from a few games out of the wild card (please dont get me started) to the third wild card. It strikes me to keep relevant the team will need to play better than .500 ball to remain relevant. And this is where we see the need for starting pithing in all its desperate needs. We already are relying on Senga returning to some top of the rotation form, but he has not thrown a pitch in the Show this year, so we cannot over expect anything. This team could not survive any post season play with the rotation we have. The Jekyll and Hyde offense is a deep concern as the table of data Brian shows.
Of course the “X factor” is that the National League is so pitifully lousy that even a lousy team may make the playoffs, but is that plan to bank on? I dont think so.
With the Mets now in the conversation of the Wild Card contention (I detest saying that out loud), albeit with 64 games still to play making the thought of a “race” wildly premature, there is still a nexus with the trade *dreadline* rapidly approaching. I personally ardently remain in sell mode because we are hitching a lot on a dream. I would rather solidify a stringer future with younger better players. I could also see being in mixed mode with both buying and selling as long as buying nets longer term assets and no rentals.
Thanks for the kind words!
It was a lot of fun when 8 of the 9 hitters were all hot at the same time. And while the Mets might need that type of offense to compensate for the pitching as currently constructed, they probably won’t need that when the walking wounded return. Senga, Reid-Foley and Garrett could be a nice upgrade over the bottom 3 pitchers currently on the roster.
It would be nice to have three offensive guys exceeding expectations, three guys more or less average and three guys struggling. But it seems like the Mets haven’t had that all year.
I think the big question for Stearns is what kind of production can he expect to receive from Alonso and Martinez going forward. If they can be 125 OPS+ type guys, this team has a shot. They’ve both been way better than that previously in their careers. But Martinez is old enough that he could crater at any point and Alonso seems like a shell of his former self.
If Stearns believes in those two, he needs to see the best SP he can get for Luisangel Acuna and/or Brett Baty. It doesn’t help that neither of those guys have been worth a damn here in July. I’ve never been high on Acuna so I’d prefer to keep Baty if possible. But there’s enough doubt around Baty that you can’t let him hold up a trade to get you an SP2 or high-end SP3 if you believe in the hitters.
The offense is shuffling now but 8 of the 9 starters have above 100 OPS+ so there isn’t a problem with a offense. Three of the five starting pitchers has an above 100 ERA+ and all of them have a FIA better than their ERA. Senga should make it 4 of 6 and that would be improvement . The backend of the bullpen, Diaz, Nunez and Butto, have an above 100 ERA+ but the rest of the bullpen perpetually scuffling. Looking at this team right now, they are right where they should be, a few games above .500. The NL isn’t so pitifully lousy. MLB and MLBPA have achieved their goal to have parity. We should enjoy the opportunity for the parity.
The Mets should concentrate on pitching at the deadline. Obtain two backend relievers and replace Scott in the rotation with Butto.
What I’d love the Mets to do is:
Trade for Garret Crochet; pay the tab because he is yours several more years. Then, trade away Severino and Manaea to get some prospects back. I think Crochet and Senga is an upgrade over Severino and Manaea. Then, send Scott down and insert Butto. Megill can go to the pen. Then, I trade for Patrick Corbin. Straight money deal, no prospects. It’s a money deal and the upside is there while the downside is releasing him and paying the tab.
The trouble with Crochet is that if they’re worried about Scott’s innings, they should be terrified of Crochet’s.
His high in innings coming into the year was 54.1 IP back in 2021. He missed all of 2022 with TJ surgery and only pitched 25 innings combined last year between the majors and minors. And if that wasn’t enough, this is his first year starting in pro ball. He’s been great, with a 3.02 ERA and better numbers with the ERA estimators. But he’s already thrown 107.1 IP this year and it’s an open question how much more he can give.
FWIW – I can’t imagine a pitcher I’d want the Mets to trade for any less than Patrick Corbin. There are 72 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the leaderboards and Corbin ranks … 72nd with a 5.35 ERA. This is the fourth straight year Corbin’s had an ERA over 5. He’s durable – but there’s nothing else besides that to like about him.
A free lefty for your bullpen with MLB experience and success, and you’re passing it up? It’s two months, and he has been up and down like all relievers.
Yes, a pile of crap is still a pile of crap – regardless if the original owner gives it to you for free.
Besides, you have two months to try to figure out what’s wrong…. It might be fruitful, it might not be. What do you lose? Diekman with upside.
So, the Nationals couldn’t fix him in five years but you’re going to fix him in 15 minutes? Someone get Rick Peterson – stat!
The lesson of the mid-season 2015 trades is to get someone who’s good when you’re trying to make the playoffs, not a reclamation project.
Juan Uribe had a 125 OPS+ when they got him
Kelly Johnson had a 112 OPS+ when they got him
Yoenis Cespedes had a 125 OPS+ when they got him
Tyler Clippard had a 141 ERA+ when they got him
Addison Reed had a 99 ERA+ when they got him
Patrick Corbin has a 74 ERA+ and a 1.486 WHIP
If you simply must get someone from the Nationals – try Dylan Floro with his 198 ERA+ and 1.061 WHIP