A different midseason top 20 list for the Mets

People love lists, especially ranked lists. And it’s easy to understand why, as these lists help bring order to things. But some things lend themselves quite well to lists – like, say, who has the most home runs or strikeouts. And some things simply don’t. It’s my opinion that top prospect lists are like that. When the tiered approach to prospects was first introduced here several years ago, people were not happy. Ultimately, these people are okay if you’re wildly wrong with how you rank prospects, so long as you do it in numerical order.

It’s weird. But it’s not anything to get upset about, regardless of which side of the issue you’re on. Last year, after the Mets picked up a bunch of prospects around the trade deadline, I did a ranked list and it was one of the most-read pieces of the year. This year, they didn’t get any prospects at the trade deadline. So, this will be a test of some kind. Were people more interested in opinions on the new guys to the organization or was it just people getting a woody over a numerical list?

So, what follows is my midseason top 20 list of the best Mets prospects. The hardest part is how to rank the injured guys versus the ones playing – even more so than figuring out how to value the recent draft picks or how much value to put on guys in DSL or FCL short-season leagues. My first run thru came up with 35 names for consideration, which was whittled to 24 and finally 20. Here they are:

20. Joander Suarez – Maybe at age 24, he’s too old to be ranked this high. But a 3.62 K/BB ratio, combined with a 1.204 WHIP and a 0.7 HR/9 suggest there’s too much here to ignore. In his last four games, Suarez has a 2.57 ERA in 21 IP, with 3 BB, 21 Ks and 0 HR.

19. Christopher Suero – Teams value versatility and Suero can catch as well as play 1B and LF. He earned a mid-year promotion to Hi-A and has held his own at the advanced level, where he’s a year younger than the preferred age.

18. Marco Vargas – He’s rated lower here than most other places. My concern is that he’s just another singles hitter who’s going to need to run an ultra-high BABIP to be worthwhile. It’s been close to a wasted year with four separate trips to the IL.

17. Mike Vasil – In the offseason, Vasil went to the new pitching lab where changes were identified. And the immediate results were terrible. In his first six games he was 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA. Since then, Vasil is 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA. In his last 43 IP, he has a 3.56 ERA with 9 BB, 35 Ks and 5 HR. There’s been progress made throughout the year and his first starts shouldn’t dictate his standing.

16. Edward Lantigua – There’s nothing as frustrating as the DSL. Guys look like stars there and fizzle out when they get to this country and vice versa. Lantigua was one of the Mets’ top IFA this year and he’s been extremely productive at age 17. He’s hitting for AVG, doing a fantastic job of getting on base and when signed there was a lot of buzz about his power potential, although it’s been doubles-power to date. Could be a future star, could fail to reach Double-A – none of us have the slightest idea. But let’s rank him!

15. Ronald Hernandez – Acquired from the Marlins last year along with Vargas, this might be the only list that has Hernandez ranked higher. One of the few bright spots on a dismal St. Lucie squad, Hernandez is a switch-hitting catcher with a good hit tool, along with a good knowledge of the strike zone. Can he tap into his power?

14. Boston Baro – An 8th-round pick in the 2023 Draft, Baro has out-performed the club’s first pick in that draft, Colin Houck. This ranking is based on the assumption/hope that he can remain in the middle infield. May not have the power you’d want from a 3B.

13. Nolan McLean – Did well at Hi-A and was moved to Double-A, where he struggled mightily. But things improved when he gave up hitting to concentrate on pitching. In his last 23 IP, McLean has a 3.13 ERA and has allowed just 1 HR. Too many walks, though.

12. Daiverson Gutierrez – This time last year, he looked like a bust, another high dollar IFA who failed to impress. But this year he’s raking. He started off back in the DSL but has since moved to the FCL and has performed even better in this country. Gutierrez is slashing .309/.467/.506 overall here in his age-18 season. In 2023, he had a respectable 17.1 K%. This year he’s cut his K rate in half, with an 8.4% mark. It’s pretty special for a catcher.

11. Kevin Parada – Like Vasil, Parada got off to a terrible start and everyone is holding it against him. In his last 17 games he has a .925 OPS. Parada has been really hurt by his home park, where he has a .534 OPS. In road games, he’s slashing .285/.345/.494 in 177 PA.

10. Jesus Baez – He delivered 29 XBH in 316 PA in his age-19 season, really strong numbers for a middle infielder. Unfortunately, he just had knee surgery and is expected to miss the rest of the season.

9. Jeremy Rodriguez – Acquired last year in the Tommy Pham deal, Rodriguez has followed up a great DSL campaign with a strong year in the FCL. He’s cooled off after a great start but still has a .755 OPS for a team with a .698 OPS.

8. Blade Tidwell – After posting a 2.41 ERA in seven games in Double-A, Tidwell earned a promotion to Triple-A, where he’s found the sledding much tougher. He’s allowed too many walks and too many homers. But he struggled after being promoted to Double-A last year. He may just need more time to adapt at each level.

7. Jonah Tong – He has 124 Ks in 83 IP for a 13.4 K/9. That’s outstanding for a SP. He quickly earned a promotion to Hi-A. After some early hiccups, Tong has settled into a nice groove. In his last eight games, he has a 2.63 ERA and has limited opposing batters to a .536 OPS.

6. Carson Benge – The Mets’ first-round pick in the 2024 Draft, Benge had 44 XBH in 304 PA as a draft-eligible sophomore at Ok. State while working as both a hitter and a pitcher. The Mets have already announced he’s going to strictly focus on hitting as a professional.

5. Drew Gilbert – He was unimpressive last year at Double-A until he was traded to the Mets and then he took off. He’s missed most of this year with a hamstring injury but has just recently returned to action. If what he did last year after the trade is indicative of his true-talent level, he might be the team’s top prospect. But that has to be weighed against his injury issues – he’s also suffered with a balky elbow and his high-intensity style might be a problem.

4. Ryan Clifford – Some might object to a pure slugger being ranked this high. But a .274 ISO in Double-A at age 20 is pretty terrific. He’s got a 137 wRC+, which way more than makes up for his .219 AVG.

3. Brandon Sproat – He overpowered hitters at Hi-A and after six games got promoted to Double-A, where in 10 games he has a 2.67 ERA. Some have him ranked as the club’s top prospect but recall that Tidwell had a 2.41 ERA at the same age at Binghamton and has been hit around in Triple-A. Things look really good for Sproat right now but Tidwell’s experience has to be factored in.

2. Ronny Mauricio – Is he the Mets’ version of Elly De La Cruz or does he have too many holes in his swing that pitchers will exploit? We’ll have to wait until next year before we get a better idea.

1. Jett Williams – A 176 wRC+ in Hi-A at age 19 last year had us all imaging greatness for Williams. That’s still on the table but the wrist injury has made this a wasted season. But it’s okay to still believe he’s a future star.

*****

It feels like you could take the top five names and draw them out of a hat and pick the order that way. And it also feels like you could take the next 15 guys, along with 3-5 others, and slot them the same way.

Most people will be shocked that Luisangel Acuna doesn’t make the list. He easily could have. But, screw it, this is my list and he rides the pine. He’s young, he’s fast, he’s a good fielder. There are definitely things to like about Acuna. But there’s also that thing about how he hasn’t hit since he joined the Mets.

Last year it was a .622 OPS for a Binghamton team with a .696 OPS. This year, it’s a .669 OPS for a Syracuse team with a .789 OPS. Is he really better than Vargas or Nick Morabito? Maybe he is. But I need to see more evidence of it, not just have it told to me by others. Here’s how he’s done since making his U.S. debut in 2021:

Lo-A – 473 PA, league-average (105 wRC+)
Hi-A – 240, PA, great (149 wRC+) — .416 BABIP
AA – 169 PA, lousy (68 wRC+)
AA – 402 PA, good (121 wRC+) — .381 BABIP
AA – 167 PA, bad (76 wRC+)
AAA – 442 PA, bad (73 wRC+)

He’s got 642 PA where he’s been above-average and 778 PA where he’s been below The Galvis Line. And since the last 609 PA have been bad – what’s the need for him to be considered a top prospect? He needs a super-high BABIP to be an asset offensively. With his speed, you’d think that would be a possibility. It just hasn’t happened on a regular basis.

The case for Acuna rests on two things. First, his brother is really good. If the Mets’ farmhand name was Luisangel Sanchez, no one would give him a second thought. Second, he allegedly has power that he hasn’t been able to get to in games. Let’s hope he taps into that power soon. And while we’re dreaming, we should fantasize about a high BABIP, too.

That would be a really good player and it’s among the possibilities for Acuna. He’s young and everything absolutely could break that way once he gets more experience. But if Calvin Ziegler could stay healthy, he’d be a star. If Dom Hamel could quit walking guys and giving up homers, he’d be a stud. If Alex Ramirez could quit chasing, he’d be a monster. We want to see those guys prove they can do those things. It’s no different with Acuna, at least for me.

*****

Christian Scott may or may not be a rookie and eligible for these lists. He’s 2.1 IP under the threshold for innings. And he’s either just over or just under the days on the roster limit. The limit is 45 days on an active MLB roster. Scott was called up on 5/4 and sent down on 5/31. That’s 27 days. Then he was recalled on 7/3 and placed on the IL on 7/23. That’s 20 days. But the IL trip was backdated to 7/22, which would be 19 days. I get 46 days on the active roster for the Mets for Scott, which would make him ineligible, which is why he’s not included here. He’d be somewhere above Benge on the list if eligible.