Here are two players for your consideration:
Player A: 310 PA, 103 OPS+ 1.3 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR, $10.5 million
Player B: 233 PA, 96 OPS+, 1.5 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR, $2.025 million
They’re pretty similar. Perhaps you’d prefer Player A due to his fWAR advantage, at least until you looked as their respective salaries. The players are Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor, respectively.
Both players can point to things besides what’s listed above. Both players have been worse than expected versus LHP. Bader has a lifetime .779 OPS versus lefties, compared to a .555 mark this year. Taylor has a .706 lifetime mark against southpaws, compared to a .524 mark this season.
But Bader had a .556 mark against portsiders in 2022. Taylor’s lowest mark in a season where he had at least 20 PA versus lefties was the .721 mark he posted in .722. It’s much more of an outlier season for Taylor.
And if you want to point out how Bader is struggling against LHP, it’s only fair to discuss how his OPS versus RHP is .107 points higher than his lifetime mark.
Bader is better defensively in center field this year, so long as we ignore DRS. UZR thinks he’s much better, mostly due to a negative rating for Taylor. DRS and Statcast see Taylor as essentially average. Of course, everything is a small sample, as Taylor has fewer than 200 innings in center here in 2024. In 1,046.1 lifetime innings in CF, still not a full season, Taylor has a lifetime 2.1 UZR/150.
At the end of the season, Bader is a free agent, while Taylor will be in his ARB2 season. There have already been pleas around the internet for the Mets to re-up with Bader. My opinion is while the Mets shouldn’t rule that idea out completely, right now my take is 95/5 in favor of letting him walk.
Funny thing happened on the way to signing all these guys for one year and trading them at the deadline, Stearns’ team actually started to win! So, now people want all these one year deals resigned: Severino, Bader, Martinez…. I only want Martinez, the rest are free to go. Give Severino a QO…
I can’t help but think there is more at play than OPS+ and WAR. The fact is Bader has a fair number of very key hits that have driven in runs or started rallies that have led to wins. Overall his defense has been really dependable. Then he clearly seems to be a valued clubhouse guy with the standing to be a team leader. The fact is that stuff really matters.
I dont care about Bader one way or another, but I personally believe a straight forward comparison like this does not accurately account for all the value a player has.
Bader ranks 9th on the team with a (-0.30) WPA. It’s better than Taylor but it’s not good.
If they are going to re-sign Bader, then they need to put him out as the starting centerfielder where I think he’s done a pretty good job. His clutch hitting has been unexpected given that he was labeled as a great defender, and a mediocre hitter. Every player can’t be a star as we will know. With all of the expiring contracts it does leave them some stupid money to go after Juan Soto but I bet he will never leave the Bronx. Taylor is another fill-in player who is not meant to be a starter and has done a decent job in a back up role. Again, if all of these players were stars, they would not be back ups and would be starting other teams. They probably have a stronger bench as they’ve ever had right now. I would continue at the end of the season to offer some of those with expiring contracts another one year contract although the likelihood is that someone will be silly enough to give them multi year deals. Speaking of multi year deals, Mike Trout is once again out for the season. We all recognize him certainly as a star and potential Hall of Famer, but he has been out for some serious injuries the last five years, after signing an over $400 million contract at age 27. The other side of 30 has been a killer.
Bader had a OPS of .726 May and a .816 OPS in June but fell off in July with a .665 . Taylor had a good July with a .793 OPS and a better June with a .801 OPS. Taylor is the hot player now. Both of them have contributed to the team. Mendoza has handled the playing time well.
There is two months left to evaluate Bader’s free agency. That time it will also used for the evaluation and time-line of Williams, Gilbert and Acuna. Bader wouldn’t be needed if the front office determines that one of the three prospects would be ready and produce a 103 OPS+ or whatever Bader ends up with. Under no circumstances should they offer Bader multi-year contract because he is just a place holder until a prospect is ready . Bader would be an expensive place holder and the money could be better spent elsewhere. As for Taylor, of course Stearns should offered Taylor arbitration because he is a good inexpensive bench player.