Making the case to keep Adam Ottavino as the injured relievers return

Reed Garrett has made five minor league rehab appearances and Sean Reid-Foley has made two, with both of them in Triple-A for their last game. In other words, they’re about to be activated any day. And it’s far from certain who will go to make room for them. One of the people on the bubble to be removed is veteran Adam Ottavino.

As far back as July 5, this space has suggested that the Mets’ pen wasn’t nearly as bad as people thought and there was no reason to make multiple additions. And since that time, the Mets have made four bullpen acquisitions, as they traded for Huascar Brazoban, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, in addition to picking up Alex Young up on waivers. Now with the walking wounded nearing returns, it’s time to contemplate the moves to get them on the roster.

Ottavino is often mentioned as one of the guys the Mets should remove from the roster. Fans get frustrated about Ottavino’s inability to control the running game, with any batter reaching base a threat to reach scoring position with a steal or two. There’s no doubt that people who reach base take advantage of Ottavino’s slow time to the plate. But that’s countered some with his 1.185 WHIP, which is a below-average mark for a reliever.

Another thing held against Ottavino is his 4.25 ERA. That’s one of the higher marks for the Mets relievers on the bubble. But it’s also not without some counterbalances. First, Ottavino’s FIP is 3.29 and his xERA is 2.95 – suggesting that he’s been unlucky with his results to date. Digging deeper, we see Ottavino’s strand rate is 68.1%. In any season with at least 30 IP, it’s the worst mark of his career. Ottavino has a lifetime 77.0% mark and his two previous seasons with the Mets it was in the 80s.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Ottavino has already gone thru his bad streak. If you’ve been reading this site the past few years, you’ll know that nearly every single reliever in baseball goes thru a bad streak, which is typically a stretch of 6-12 games where the reliever’s ERA is 3X (or more) worse than usual. Relievers tend to bunch their bad outings together, something that holds true for star closers, mop-up men and everyone in between.

In his first 18 appearances, Ottavino had a 2.95 ERA and a 0.927 WHIP
In his last 15 appearances, he has a 2.19 ERA and a 1.054 WHIP

But his bad streak – the 12 games in the middle – Ottavino had an 8.49 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP.

Now, it’s possible that Ottavino can have another bad stretch this season. But it’s also possible that he finishes the year being the same sub-3.00 ERA pitcher he’s been for 33 games. My money is on the latter.

One thing that the brass will have to consider is how much weight to put on Ottavino’s experience. In his 14-year career in the majors, Ottavino has pitched in 709 games. He’s not likely to be overwhelmed with pitching in big games.

To be clear, there’s no right answer here. But the pen has Edwin Diaz and Phil Maton among its locks with a bunch of experience. But among the top six relievers – Diaz, Maton, Butto, Garrett, Nunez and Reid-Foley – the most games among the other four are the 71 – over seven seasons – for Sean Reid-Foley.

Stanek also has a lot of experience, with 388 games pitched. But he also has a 4.64 ERA this year, with a 7.36 ERA since joining the Mets. His ability to throw gas is definitely a mark in his favor and Stanek’s 4-seamer has an average velocity of 98.2 mph. But the difference between what Stanek gives and the rest of the non-Diaz relievers just isn’t worth that 4.64 ERA. The gas isn’t worth the gas can.

That leaves Brazoban and the two lefty relievers, both named Young. One clear advantage here is that those three each have options available, while Ottavino does not. Still, my preference is to pick the best reliever to keep on the roster, not the only one without an option. In limited samples, both Youngs have been good for the Mets, while Brazoban has had one bad outing.

Because the front office made multiple reliever additions, deciding who goes when the injured relievers return is not going to be an easy call. Further complicating things is that a lot can change in a short amount of time with relievers. Two or three bad outings by anyone can change the calculus once a decision has to be made.

If forced to make the decision now, my choices in order would be Stanek, Brazoban and then flip a coin with the two Youngs. If only they had traded Luis Severino and moved Jose Butto back into the rotation, this would have been a little easier.

Still, it’s a good problem to have.