Brandon Nimmo’s strikeouts, David Peterson’s shiny ERA, Jesse Winker turns on the power

Brandon Nimmo has been a model of consistency the past three seasons. Coming into this year, Nimmo posted OPS+ marks of 131, 130 and a 128 in 2023. Which makes this year’s 113 mark disappointing. In previous seasons where he didn’t reach that level, there were stretches where he didn’t hit for power, typically coming after being activated from the IL. But Nimmo didn’t have an injury stint this year. Instead, his extended down streak was due to excessive strikeouts.

Nimmo had a poor start to 2024 and after eight games he was 3-29 with a .454 OPS. But he shook that off and by July 10, Nimmo had an .832 OPS, a season-high. But over his next 30 games, he was almost as bad as in the season-opening stretch, as he posted a .549 OPS in 136 PA. And in that span, he fanned 40 times, a 29.4 K%.

Strikeout issues are nothing new for Nimmo. From his MLB debut in 2016 thru the 2019 season, Nimmo had a 26.8 K% in 1,084 PA. But from 2020-2023, he cut his strikeouts over 7%, to a 19.5 mark in 1,966 PA. So, this recent 30-game streak with a K-rate pushing 30% was both notable and alarming.

But in his last 12 games, Nimmo is making much better contact. He’s fanned just five times in 49 PA. Now he just needs to do more with his contact. Typically a high-BABIP guy, Nimmo has just a .282 mark in this stretch. Combined with not much power – just three doubles – he has just a .645 OPS. But Nimmo did hit two homers in the three previous games to this span, so it’s not like he’s been completely devoid of power recently. But he also struck out four times in those three games. Hopefully we see continued contact, better luck on BABIP and additional power here the rest of the season.

CAN PETERSON CONTINUE TO OUT-PITCH HIS PERIPHERALS? – By now you probably know that David Peterson’s shiny ERA is significantly better than any of the ERA estimators. He has a 2.83 ERA but a 4.25 FIP, a 4.41 xFIP, a 4.68 SIERA and a 5.12 xERA. Peterson’s done this thanks to a BABIP 29 points beneath his career mark, a LOB% 7.6% above his lifetime rate and a HR/9 30 points below his career rate. But there are pitchers who can out-pitch their peripherals. Is Peterson one of those?

With just 92.1 IP this year, it’s impossible to say that he is, especially considering that his FIP was lower than his ERA the previous three seasons. But one thing to keep in mind is that Peterson also had a nice close to 2023. If we combine his last six starts from a season ago to his output this year, we have 126 IP with a 3.07 ERA. It’s still not a full year’s worth of results and he’s still out-pitching his peripherals. But maybe it’s enough to give us hope that he can be better than an SP4 moving forward.

THE RETURN OF WINKER’S POWER – Before being acquired by the Mets, Jesse Winker had a .162 ISO in 367 PA with the Nationals. Yet in his first 17 games for New York, Winker had just two doubles in 53 PA for an .039 ISO. But it appears he’s completely settled in now with his new team. In his last 11 games, Winker has a .334 ISO, with three doubles and two homers in 30 PA. The announcers have talked about how he’s been more aggressive early in the count and it seems to have paid off for him. Overall, Winker has a .321/.349/.462 line in 83 PA as a Met. While his walks are down from his time with the Nats, Winker has a 130 OPS+ with the Mets, compared to a 127 mark before the trade.

THE KODAI CONUNDRUM – Kodai Senga was counted on to be the Mets’ ace this season but injuries have held him to just one start this year. When he exited his only start with a calf injury, it was thought he was done for 2024. But Senga was able to do throwing while seated, which meant his rehab wasn’t starting from zero. And now reports are that he may be able to appear for the Mets at the tail-end of the year. But if he’s able to make it back, it’s likely he won’t be able to go more than four innings, if that many.

So, the question is: Do the Mets utilize him as a starter or as a reliever? He might be able to give you two relief appearances, compared to only one as a starter. How should the Mets proceed? It’s no given that he’ll be able to adapt to a bullpen role. My hope is that if he’s able to come back for one of the last games of the regular season – against either the Braves or Brewers – that the Mets will use him as a SP, piggybacking with another SP.

THE 2ND HALF PITCHING HAS BEEN STRONG – Very few people are impressed with the Mets’ pitching staff, 1-14. Sure, Sean Manaea has been terrific and Peterson has been very successful with his mirrors. But after that the starters have been more miss than hit and the relievers don’t exactly inspire confidence. However, if we move past opinions and focus on the facts, the pitching top to bottom since the All-Star break has been a big plus.

The Mets rank sixth in the majors with a staff ERA of 3.63 here in the second half. And the starters have a 3.78 ERA while the relievers have a 3.36 mark. The Mets are going to need this type of production from their pitchers the rest of the year if they hope to complete their goal of reaching the postseason.