All baseball fans are aware that hitters go thru hot streaks and cold spells. Back in 2018, it was identified that it was common for a hitter who otherwise wasn’t very good to go thru a hot streak that lasted around six weeks that stood out completely from numbers that otherwise were pretty bad. Here’s how it was laid out six years ago:
All players have streaks, stretches where the hits fall in as well as periods where they simply can’t buy a hit. But even knowing that, we still find players whose final numbers are propped up by a stretch that was completely out of whack with what they did previously or subsequently.
In rough terms, these unusual streaks comprise six weeks or 30 games or 120 PA. Now, maybe it’s 37 games or maybe it’s 98 PA. But this is the general ballpark.
Here in 2024, both Harrison Bader and Jose Iglesias have experienced these six-week hot streaks that are completely incompatible with what the player has done in other games this year, along with what they’ve done recently. Both Bader and Iglesias have backers among regular fans, broadcasters and guys who make decisions, both in uniform and in suits.
Don’t get fooled by the hype.
Bader signed as a free agent with the Mets in the offseason. After a 2021 campaign where he posted a 114 OPS+ and won a Gold Glove Award, Bader fell on hard time in 2022-23. Injuries were a factor the past two seasons. But the combined 657 PA he did play in those two years resulted in a dismal 77 OPS+.
He’s been healthy this year and Bader has a somewhat respectable 91 OPS+. But that underwhelming number is being propped up by a six-week hot stretch. From 6/4-7/12, a stretch of 29 games and 99 PA, Bader had an .893 OPS. In his first 197 PA this season, Bader had a .678 OPS. In his last 117 PA, Bader has a .500 OPS. What he did in those 99 PA in the middle of the year does not have anything remotely in common with what he’s done lately, or what he did at the beginning of the season or what he did the previous two years.
For 99 PA, Bader was very good. For the other 314 PA, he’s been below The Galvis Line, with an OPS+ that is in the low-70s neighborhood – or even worse than he was in 2022-23. Without a doubt, the Mets benefited from that six-week stretch. But he’s simply not very good and anyone who advocates to re-sign him shouldn’t be taken seriously.
Even though Bader’s offensive production has been lousy, many fans still think he deserves a lot of playing time here down the stretch because of his defense. That’s not really a position that resonates with me – both because of how bad his offense is, combined with my opinion that his defense is overrated. But if you want to back Bader because of his defense – you absolutely cannot use DRS to boost your case. Bader has a (-4) DRS this year. That’s the main input in dWAR, the stat used by Baseball-Reference in its WAR calculation. Bader has a 0.9 rWAR.
Which brings us to Iglesias.
It’s been a terrific season for Iglesias, both with how he bounced back from not even playing in the majors last year, to being a key part of a team that’s made a serious Wild Card push. And there’s also the success of his music career, too. It feels like the ultimate party pooper to suggest that he’s in the same boat as Bader. But he is.
Coming into 2024, Iglesias had a lifetime .701 OPS/88 OPS+ in 4.043 PA in the majors. Then, in his first 34 games and 100 PA, Iglesias had a 1.021 OPS and a .407 BABIP. The hits were falling in for him at a completely unsustainable rate and his power numbers had nothing in common with the rest of his career.
But since July 23 – a stretch of 114 PA – Iglesias has a .252/.316/.301 line. That’s a .617 OPS, which has come with a .317 BABIP. The hits are still falling in for him, even if not to the degree they were earlier. But the power has almost completely evaporated, as he has just five doubles in this latest span. And we may not have seen the worst for Iglesias yet. He’s going to be forced into playing nearly every day here for the remainder of the year. And we shouldn’t expect a guy in his age-34 season to reverse a downward trend by getting more playing time at the end of the season.
*****
There are two more players who may not be perfect fits in the six-week hot stretch category but who deserve a mention nonetheless. First is Luis Torrens, who didn’t have a ton of MLB experience coming into this year and half of what he did have was pretty good, as he posted a 102 OPS+ in 378 PA in 2021. Still, in his first 72 PA for the Mets, Torrens had a .900 OPS. But in his last 43 PA, he has just a .458 OPS. However, with the way he controls the running game, it’s not a drag to see his name in the starting lineup.
And the other player is Jeff McNeil.
There’s no clear pattern with what McNeil has done recently. He was bad in 2021, great in 2022, bad for four months in 2023 before turning it on the last two months of the season. And then he got off to another lousy start here in 2024.
In his first 87 games and 319 PA this year, McNeil had a .584 OPS. And then in his next 36 games and 135 PA, he slashed .308/.385/.598 for a .984 OPS. Just in the context of 2024, it was a six-week heater. But we don’t know how he would have finished the year without the hand injury. Maybe he wouldn’t have been as productive as he had been, yet still he could have been a much-better hitter than he was the first 3.5 months of the season. Or maybe he would have gone full Bader. We’ll never know.
This is where analytics falls short in my opinion. Both Bader and Iglesias have been key parts making up the greater whole and at different parts of the season have won games for us whether on defense or with their bats. It happened for both of them just last week in fact. Not cheerleading for either of them to be penciled in to the starting lineup next year but I’m happy both are on this yrs roster. Iglesias in particular could be a useful infield backup next yr. I’d pay just to watch him and Linder turn double plays.
I have no idea what you mean when you say analytics. It’s lost all meaning because different people mean vastly different things when they use the term.
All I know is that I’m bummed when I see Bader in the starting lineup. Because he can’t hit. And I feel his defense is much more accurately described as “solid” rather than “terrific.”
It’s a little different with Iglesias because he seems like a guarantee to do something defensively each game. But, his hitting has left a lot to be desired here in his last 100+ PA. You can appreciate his defense and still acknowledge that he hasn’t been good offensively.
The McNeil injury means more playing time for Iglesias than I’d prefer. But that’s just the breaks of the game. Starting Bader is something that Carlos Mendoza inflicts on us. It’s not necessary in any way, shape or form. Tyrone Taylor is better and playing Winker and Marte with Nimmo in CF is probably the best option most games. Bader is 25th-26th man territory. There’s a role for him – PR & defensive replacement – and it would be nice if he wasn’t used outside of that role.
Boom Boom’s last line is what I wrote about Luis Guillorme a couple of years ago. While Inglesias at second base has been a plus, I don’t understand why Taylor isn’t heard more from in CF.
I am not ready to anoint Acuna to anything more than a utility player with part time at bats, initially. Right now, next year’s second baseman is either McNeil or his replacement if he is traded, not Inglesias. However, it’s fair to note that sometimes chemistry plays a role too, and Bader hogging up fly balls and bumping into corner outfielder standing under the ball doesn’t show me his amazing range. But, I don’t see the negative DRS fielder either. Inglesias is a positive on the infield defense and while still a pea shooting second baseman, his avg with RISP because he puts the bat in the ball is something this team needs desperately.
Iglesias has a longer track record of being a high average hitter at least than Luis ever did. Plus he’s got that swag factor.
I agree with BoomBoom here. The game is not just about numbers. I cant say much about Bader, but Iglesias is turning in some amazing defense on a regular basis and coming through with some key hits to starta rally or drive in someone. It’s clear he is a valuable component to the clubhouse and providing senior leadership. And his ABs are better than others not on your list, like Pete and Alvarez, both of whom are lost in the weeds.
I dont want a team of Bader’s or Iglesias’ by any stretch. But even for me, it is hard to say that somehow there isnt a little black magic that they sprinkle in because of where the team presently is.
Bader and Iglesias had very good moments in 2024. Both are good bench players. Unfortunately Iglesias has to start because of the McNeil injury. McNeil was going hot and Iglesias was cooling down . Iglesias is it a gamer though. He makes contact and is a good defensive second baseman and third baseman.
I don’t understand the infatuation of Bader though. I feel Taylor is a better player, defensively and offensively and yet Bader has 105 PA more. I always felt that it should have been equal playing time for both players.
I appreciate Bader and Iglesias for what they did this year. Bader’s 10 million contract would be better spent elsewhere in 2025. I can see Iglesias getting a invite to spring training and be a place holder until Mauricio or Williams is ready.
I don’t know, Brian
Instead of using that mathematical science which us non-normies call Probability and Statistics, I’d much rather go with my infallible gut