On yesterday’s article about the Mets’ impending free agents, frequent commenter AgingBull left this as part of his comment:
Maybe it goes without saying, but what makes this off-season more confounding than usual are the injuries to Mauricio, Williams, and Gilbert. No one really knows what kind of MLB player any of them will turn out to be, if at all. I would hate the see a potential star be blocked by FA inked to a long-term contract
This is an interesting point to consider but not one which causes me too much concern.
Ronny Mauricio came up as a shortstop and spent time in the majors at both second and third base. It would be a surprise to me if the Mets were willing to hand him a job right away in 2025. The one scenario that could occur is if Pete Alonso leaves in free agency, Mark Vientos moves to first base and Mauricio takes over at third. My expectation is that Mauricio begins the 2025 season in the minors, getting reps at both positions on either side of shortstop.
Jett Wiliams also came up as a shortstop. The Mets have had him play some at both second base and center field. He’s paying now in the Arizona Fall League, where the Mets don’t have control over where he plays – or when – but Williams has logged six games at short and three in center. It’s a reasonable guess that the Mets asked him to get some reps in center. Still, the most important thing for Williams is to face some live pitching. He will 99.99% start the season in Syracuse, where the Mets can determine where he plays.
Drew Gilbert is an outfielder, who is playing with Williams in the AFL. In his eight games in Arizona, Gilbert has played all three outfield positions. There’s been talk about him possibly being a center fielder. If he can’t cut it in the middle of the outfield, he has the arm to play right field. But my expectation is that he, too, starts the year at Syracuse.
The three could potentially be in the Mets starting lineup sometime down the road, all at the same time. Williams could be at second, Mauricio at third and Gilbert in the outfield. But none of them are likely to make the 2025 Opening Day roster. And the Mets need to focus on free agents who are ready to contribute right away.
Ideally, your big-ticket free-agent signings don’t block anyone in the organization. At the same time, you can’t let the fact that you have legitimate prospects in the farm system who play that position keep you from signing an elite talent. The white whale this offseason is Juan Soto. But the Mets can’t let the fact that Soto would block Gilbert keep them from pursuing a generational talent. The Mets had a bunch of shortstops in the minors but that didn’t keep them from trading for – and then extending – Francisco Lindor.
Soto’s the obvious one. But the Mets shouldn’t let the presence of Mauricio keep them from pursuing Alex Bregman, either.
It’s impossible to forecast how likely that either Bregman or Soto winds up in Queens. It may very well be a longshot with both of them. But David Stearns would be negligent if he didn’t participate in the bidding for both of these players.
The easy thing to advocate for is the club sinking its money into pitching over hitting. But the Mets should have the budget to make multiple impact signings in free agency. And especially if Pete Alonso signs elsewhere, they’ll need to make a big offensive signing.
And if an acquisition blocks someone in the pipeline, that’s not the end of the world. One of the advantages of having a strong farm system is the ability to use those players as trade chits to get someone to contribute at a positional weakness. As much fun as it would be to see guys who played in the farm system become multi-year contributors – like Alonso and Brandon Nimmo – it would be fun to use those guys on a deal for, as an example, Tarik Skubal, too.
Ultimately, it’s a win-win situation.
All 3 mentioned – Gilbert, Williams, and Mauricio – really need to start in AAA. I saw Mauricio is behind on his recovery and hasn’t started baseball activity yet. So, reps in AAA and see where their performances take them. Then there is Acuna, who likely needs to work on hit hit tool a bit more. And, Baty, who has failed in his first two tries and may not get another. FA position player recruitment is all about Alonso and Soto, perhaps in no particular order. While those $$$ may be the biggest, pitching is where more action is needed, and where they’ll be more risk to near term misses. Even if they overpay for Alonso, or Soto, or both, performance expectations for 2025-6 should be reasonably projectable. Pitching, either what they have or what they’ll buy, that will likely dictate how they factor with regards to a 2025 championship run. As we see with the Dodgers, depth provides some insurance. Load up on those arms Mr. Stearns.
Where do you see Acuna? If he makes the 2025 roster, it seems to be him and McNeil in a 2B platoon. Possibly 3B if Vientos goes to 1B and they don’t sign Bregman?
Where do I see Acuna? In Syracuse proving he can hit better than a backup middle infielder.
In 587 PA in AAA last year, Acuna had a .654 OPS. The team had a .768 OPS. To put that .114 OPS differential between team and player into context – it’s essentially the equivalent of DJ Stewart posting a .622 OPS for the Mets last year, while the team had a .734 OPS. But Stewart was getting abused by MLB pitchers, while Acuna was getting his lunch handed to him by AAA hurlers.
And after having all of the hits fall in for him in the first week in the Majors – Acuna finished with a .622 OPS in his final 28 PA.
FWIW – the picture has Gilbert, Williams and Acuna. They’re all small
I cant imagine any situation where it would matter who Soto blocks. Like you said, hes a generational talent, with 36 bWAR at age 26 (his birthday is today). Imagine he averages 5 bWAR for the next decade, which is easy to imagine, he’ll be approaching 90 and a guaranteed hall of famer. He has a legit chance at 100 bWAR. I think you could pencil in 50 M/yr for 12 years and you get 600M$. Defer half of that or something. The amount of marketing and such more than offsets that. Maybe give opt-outs at age 30 and 33 or something. With Cohens money thats a slam dunk. I’d do that in a heartbeat.
I dont think theres any reason for Cohen to be complacent for next year. After this year there is a fierce urgency of now. We need to get out of the habit about worrying what Cohen pays for players. Most top FAs get more years and $ than they are worth. Welcome to Show. It’s time for Cohen to get the big boy pants on, snap the chinstrap, and get in the game big time.