Sometimes you gotta tip your cap.
It’s a common sports cliche that we’re all familiar with, particularly when it’s our team that’s on the short end of a game or match. In this context, however, it pertains to the Mets and their players unequivocally and in no uncertain terms forcing yours truly to firmly place his foot into his unbelieving mouth.
Back in July I wrote a piece stating that the Mets should not be aggressive at the deadline. This turned out to be relatively prescient if not entirely obvious, and David Stearns did what he does by swinging low-key deals to acquire undervalued assets and improve the team at the margins and throughout the roster. There were no major splashes, but that didn’t mean that the team wasn’t active.
Where I went horrifically wrong was not the conclusion, but the reasoning I used to get there. Perusing that article you’ll find such gems as:
“…the team likely isn’t actually good enough to make it deep into October.”
“…the team simply does not have a playoff-caliber rotation…”
“…the team simply doesn’t appear to have the horses to make it to the finish line.”
Now to be fair to myself and others of similar thinking, there really isn’t a way to predict such a remarkable turnaround no matter how deeply you believe. Much of that turnaround had to do with players like Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias exploding onto the scene, the aforementioned rotation buckling down and performing at an almost heroic level, and Francisco Lindor turning a miserable start into an MVP-caliber season.
You’re already familiar with the storylines for Lindor, Vientos, and Iglesias, but did you know that the starting rotation contributed 6.5 fWAR (3rd best in the league) and an ERA- of 85 (4th best) in 58 regular season games since the posting of that article (games played from July 28th through the end of the season)? Of that fWAR, the Mets’ sole starting pitching acquisition Paul Blackburn only ended up contributing 0.1 in five appearances before his season ended in injury. The starting pitching resurgence was led from within by David Peterson (1.8 fWAR), Sean Manaea (1.7), and Jose Quintana (1.1). It was a sight to behold to say the least.
While trade deadline additions like Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, and Jesse Winker all made their contributions during the season and/or the playoffs, it was mostly the team that assembled during Spring Training that ended up righting the ship and going on an unbelievable run that only happens for the Mets once a decade or more. Of course, the hope is that Stearns and Steve Cohen will navigate this team towards perennial contention.
With respect to the roster that opened the season, they proved that writing the current core off as early as May was but a fool’s errand that I’m happy once again to have been wrong about.
“At this point the team resembles more a collection of parts, some of them broken or malfunctioning, that may simply be too imperfect a fit to put it all together. This collection of parts once again looks like a team that will likely be on the outside looking in come October. “
That collection of “imperfect parts” shocked their way to just a few wins from their first World Series appearance since 2015. It was an improbable run with some career years from unlikely cast members that will almost certainly never be repeated, but it’s another reminder that baseball is a funny game that can be as exhilarating as it can be heartbreaking.
As Mets fans, we’re no strangers to living at both ends of that spectrum of fandom. It’s what makes us so cynical at times while never quite being able to completely write off the possibility for magic. It’s what makes a certain Mets360 writer pen an article that effectively gives up on the season, while also hedging their bets by leaving a comment like this just in case:
“For the record, I’d be ecstatic to eat crow for this if months from now the team does pull another 2015 out of their hat.”
Sometimes ya just gotta believe (and eat some crow).
Nice article Rob. I was in the exact same boat, and truthfully still wonder who we might have gotten if we “played for ‘25” instead of doubled down on what was a tale of not just two seasons, but what appeared to be two different teams. Of course had the team bailed on the season we would have been deprived of one of the most memorable seasons in many years, even better than 101 win season and the 2015 post season run. I’ll take a lot of memories with me for life.
But it’s worth noting that there is a difference between perennial good like the Dodgers or Braves or Astros or Yankees and what we lived through this year. Unlikely turns around by an aging pitching staff who lost their #1, an Iglesias who played so beyond his means, Vientos turning into a superstar, Tyrone Taylor taking off beyond expectation all despite the shaky arms of the pen, esp Diaz, the down years of Alonso and Nimmo and really Alvarez.
What we saw this year was a remarkable, but unsustainable, run. Im no fan of Steve Phillips, our ex fearless leader that was a dark stain on the team, but one thing he says regularly is simple: a winning team needs its stars to be sure, but real winners have a higher floor for the non stars. I think he’s spot on. Going forward, the team needs to have bankable starting pitching and relievers, and more consistent hitting. But more than the hitting I think the team needs to focus on developing a much better feel for pitch recognition. The Dodgers series really showed me that. If Pete could somehow learn to not swing at pitches crossing home plate in a different area code, he could be a much better player. We see a lot of predictable lack of plate discipline.
Agree – If we could identify who among the Dodgers coaches got them to lay off so many pitches out of the zone – we should hire them.
Agreed 100%. These are the seasons that only come around every so often, where the stars align almost perfectly with regard to players outperforming career norms (or rebounding in a remarkably unexpected way) as well as most of the team’s leadership making moves that miraculously mostly work out (from the PBO to the manager).
Much of the writing/reporting that has occurred over the last few days has focused on the fact that Stearns has recognized that expectations are now higher for this team after what was supposed to be effectively a gap year. He’s almost said as much, though I suspect he’s well aware that the core of this team still needs a whole lot more to maintain any kind of sustained winning.
But still, that was one hell of a ride.
I remember your article, Rob, as well as the discussion in the comments. There was quite a bit of content during that timeframe. I agreed with you completely. I was as completely bearish and had given up on the season. I wanted us to sell everyone on the MLB roster except for Lindor, Alvarez, Nimmo, and Vientos.
Happy to be eatin’ crow too!
Absolutely! Feeling pretty confident that Stearns would make smart moves in sell mode very likely made it a more palatable path at the deadline than maybe it would have been in the past. But I definitely saw a team with so many flaws and weaknesses that they couldn’t possibly put it together. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done to avoid disappointment next year, though. I suspect Cohen will open up the coffers to try his best to make that a reality, but we’ll see.
Earlier in the season as the Mets were burying themselves in the month of May, I wrote on this site that not only should they be big sellers at the deadline, but that they should get an early start to get ahead of the competition. We all saw how poorly they played up and down the lineup, rotation and relief corp, and given the strengths of the Phillies and Braves, and also that the Nats and Marlins were gaining ground. Someone, somewhere, was warming up some crow for me to eat.
Chemistry is often over looked when your team has lots of talent. For the Mets, chemistry was vital as this team was still a concoction of spare parts trying to make a whole – Iglesias, Acuna, Bader, Taylor, and underperforming starters like McNeil and Marte and pitchers that issued so many bases on balls and they should be dog walkers in the off-season. Then the light went on or someone rang the bell and someone somewhere was cooking up some crow for me to eat.
What a season, what an ending and how thrilled we should all be for what transpired. We are still not the Phillies, Astros, Dodgers or even the Padres, but we can clearly play with them and beat them. This was a strong year of organizational change and a step toward being a perennial contender but there is much work to be done to bring in a couple of solid #2 pitchers instead of hoping that Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi will finally join the rotation. And some of the spare parts like Taylor and Iglesias stepped up but all should be back ups and not starters so look for the Mets to trade or sign some players to play in front of them.
Having been a Mets fan since their first season, this year was special as they came together as a team and seemed to be able to overcome any deficit to win games. Reminded me of ‘15 and their late season dominance. Reminded me of ‘86 but without the arrogance and clearly without the talent that was so dominant that season.
So, yes I’ll happily eat crow. Can I get a little ketchup with that and a side order of fries?