Last offseason the Mets had something of a dilemma over what to do with Brett Baty. He was a highly touted prospect who flopped in 386 PA in the majors. In a decisive move, the club did not bring in a stop-gap veteran to play third base, opting to give Baty another shot. But rather than reward that faith, Baty again failed to deliver in the majors. That allowed Mark Vientos a clear shot at the job. Vientos did what Baty couldn’t in either of his chances – he came in and performed.
Now, for the third year in a row, the Mets have a Baty question hanging over their heads. Except this time, there’s a player in Vientos standing in front of him. Still, with the uncertainty over what will happen with Pete Alonso, should the Mets look at Baty as someone to potentially make the Opening Day roster in 2025?
Let’s start with some items from Baty’s 2024 projection piece, which was written on March 8.
And my subjective view is it wasn’t a case of pitchers exploiting one area of the strike zone or having one specific pitch that gave him fits. Rather, Baty seemed to have multiple holes in his swing. And the Pitch Values section on FanGraphs show him in negative numbers against fastballs, sliders, cutters, curves and change ups. Ouch.
When there are this many issues to deal with, it’s tough to imagine an easy fix. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that Baty get at least 200 consecutive ABs in Triple-A to start 2024. He has just 147 PA at that level and those were spread among three distinct periods. My overwhelming preference is to give players from the farm system a shot. But Baty got a shot last year and fell on his face.
The Mets did not add a starting-caliber third baseman in the offseason. And David Stearns said that young players need a shot. Those two things indicate the Mets are planning to go with Baty in the majors at the start of the season. Most times it would make me very happy to hear this. My hope is that Baty takes this chance and runs with it. But a demotion to the minors at some point this season seems almost inevitable.
So, what did Baty do in 2024? He hit well in his first 10 games and then was horrible. My opinion is that when you look to grade Stearns, you have to dock him for how he handled the Baty/Vientos/J.D. Martinez situation in the first 57 games of the year. But then Stearns acted decisively again, sending Baty to the minors after 169 PA.
Baty spent the rest of the year at Triple-A. He might have gotten a return to the majors if he didn’t have a UCL tear in his right thumb, an injury that required surgery. Instead, Luisangel Acuna got the call, a player that Baty easily out-performed in Syracuse. Acuna made an immediate positive impact, hitting for power he didn’t show in the minors, along with having the hits fall in at an unsustainable rate his first week in the bigs. But then reality hit and Acuna posted a .622 OPS over his final 28 PA of the year.
Meanwhile, Baty did get the 200 consecutive PA at Triple-A that was asked for in his projection piece here. He finished with 269 PA and posted a .252/.349/.504 line. That .854 OPS was 86 points above the Syracuse team average of .768 OPS. FWIW, Acuna’s .654 OPS was 200 points worse than Baty and 114 points worse than the team mark.
The hits did not fall in for Baty, as he had just a .263 BABIP in the minors. But he showed a solid 12.3% walk rate and a .252 ISO, which allowed him to post strong OBP and SLG numbers. That .852 OPS and .372 wOBA that Baty produced in his first extended stay at Triple-A is not too far off from the numbers that Vientos posted in his first extended stay with the same team at the same level.
In 2022, Vientos had 427 PA at Syracuse and posted an .877 OPS and a .379 wOBA.
In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, Baty now has 416 PA with a .273/.368/.531 line. It’s fair to ask if this is both enough playing time and enough production to count on Baty as an MLB player to start 2025, even if in a reserve role. To me, this is a question on which reasonable people can disagree. My opinion is that the Mets should count on Baty to make the Opening Day roster.
Perhaps at this point in his career, it’s best to consider Baty a reserve, with the ability to get some starts as a backup at both 3B and DH. A 300-PA role might be just what he needs to transition into a useful MLB player, something he hasn’t been to date. This past season, Tyrone Taylor had 345 PA, a .701 OPS and a 99 OPS+. And Taylor accomplished this after a tough start to the year. He recovered from a brutal May to produce a .763 OPS over his final 229 PA, essentially taking over the starting job in CF in September. Maybe Baty can do something similar in 2025.
While reasonable people can disagree about Baty’s placement to start to year, there should be no question that Acuna needs to go back to Syracuse and learn to hit better than a backup middle infielder. And while he’s learning to hit, he can continue to get reps at both 2B and CF. While he has 327 games at shortstop under his belt in the minors, Acuna has logged 124 at 2B and just 35 in CF.
Great question Brian. With the Dodgers about to ice the Crankees, the ’25 season is quickly in the windshield.
I think one thing I dont want to do is mess with success for a youngster that was treat badly this year, namely Mark Vientos. He’s earned 3B and I dont want to mix his role up to give Baty more rope. It leaves precious little room for Baty, who to my eyes needs to keep hitting in SYR until Vientos shows otherwise or is injured and wait to be traded. With string AAA numbers some team will certainly believe that they can fix him and make noise. Im prepared to let that happen. Firthermore, I dont want to waste another year sturggling to find some spot for him, which will have to be DH.
Bret Baty should keep his bags packed for the coming move to Seattle or wherever.
I certainly didn’t mean to imply that Vientos would lose any meaningful playing time to Baty. And he would absolutely be available in trade, if I was in charge.
There s been a lot of talk about Vientos shifting to 1b if Alonso leaves but I wonder if that s an eventual spot for Baty to learn. Always nice to have a left handed glove there and maybe Stearns can have Keith work with him at spring training. Having 2 young controllable cor ner I fielders with pop would certainly be a nice luxury if it pans out.
The Mets should view Baty as an asset because will be only 25 and he had strong numbers at AAA last year. Organizational wise, he should be after Ronny Mauricio.
Mauricio and Baty have similar OPS in their lasts year at Syracuse and in the majors. Mauricio gets the nod because he is a switch hitter, 1.5 years younger and is more versatile in that he can play 3B, SS, 2B and LF. On paper, Mauricio is my choice but all minor leaguers have to earn their promotion.
If Alonso signs then Vientos would be my choice at third base. He has an outstanding arm for the position.
If Alonso doesn’t sign, then Bregman would be my choice at third base and Vientos would shift to first base.
I’m a fan of Mauricio. But I can’t see him being a candidate for the Opening Day roster.
Baty has been a AAAA player: excellent in the minors, but subpar in MLB. Two chances and he didn’t produce. I see him as a call-up replacement for an injured third baseman. Aside from Bregman, I don’t see 3B options in the Hot Stove. If they don’t sign Alonso or Soto, then Bregman makes sense to fill that hole.
But his time in Triple-A before this season was minimal.
It’s very possible that Baty just cannot handle the jump to the majors. But, your suggestion of giving him a lesser role to lift the pressure from his shoulders is something I endorse as well. While he may not be more than just a warm body at the other positions of the diamond, he at least can stand there. Let him the corner outfield and corner infield spots during March as well as some second base. As a utility player, the expectations are lower and his opportunity to catch up to MLB pitching will be greater.