How much should the Mets’ payroll be?

When the Mets hired Sandy Alderson, the reaction was almost universal praise and I was certainly one of the people excited about having him be the club’s general manager. Now that the topic has moved from establishing the front office to acquiring players for the 2011 season, at least a little split has developed among the team’s fans.

The big question has become spending money versus spending money wisely. Obviously, we are all for the latter but where the disagreement comes in is with the first part of that statement. Some rumors have it that the Mets only have $5 million this season to acquire new players. And since they have already spent $2.55 million for Ronny Paulino and D.J. Carrasco that does not leave much of anything for the remaining holes on the roster.

According to Cot’s the Mets’ Opening Day payroll the last three years has been:

2008 – $137.8 million
2009 – $149.4 million
2010 – $126.5 million

So then, what is a reasonable number for the Mets’ Opening Day payroll for 2011? Before we answer that question, let’s go through and see what’s already on the books. We know the outlay for 11 people so far and here are their salaries in millions:

Johan Santana	22.5
Carlos Beltran	18.5
Jason Bay	16
David Wright	14
Oliver Perez	12
Francisco Rodriguez	11.5
Jose Reyes	11
Luis Castillo	6
Ryota Igarashi	1.75
Ronny Paulino	1.3
D.J. Carrasco	1.25
Total	115.8

Also, the Mets have eight additional players under team control who are likely to be on the 2011 team. Here they are with my projected salaries for next season:

Angel Pagan	3
Mike Pelfrey	2
R.A. Dickey	1.5
Ike Davis	.75
Josh Thole	.75
Jonathon Niese	.75
Bobby Parnell	.75
Daniel Murphy	.75
Total	10.25

Pagan made $1.45 million last year and is in his third year of arbitration, while Pelfrey and Dickey are both in their first year of arbitration. I gave Pelfrey a bigger contract because he started last year in the majors while Dickey opened in Buffalo. The other five players on this list are under team control and can be renewed for whatever amount the Mets deem acceptable. Some of these may be higher, some may be lower but I would be surprised if the amount for all five exceeded the $3.75 million I have budgeted for them.

So, the Mets’ payroll is in the vicinity of $126 million with 19 players under contract. The problem is we don’t know how many of these players will actually be active and on the team come Opening Day. Santana will open on the disabled list and it is questionable if Castillo, Igarashi and Perez will be on the team at the end of Spring Training.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Mets cut Perez and keep the other two players for Opening Day. So, we have 17 spots taken care of and eight players to add to the roster. The Mets still need the following positions:

SP – 2
RP – 3
MI – 1
OF – 2

The position players should be filled with guys making close to the minimum wage. Let’s be generous and allocate $2.5 million for these three spots, allowing a million to be spent on a fourth OF if Alderson so desires.

With the signing of Carrasco to a $1.25 million contract, how likely is it that any of the remaining three relievers will get more than that? Perhaps some money will be spent on a veteran LOOGY, but the other two should be minimum wage types. So, we will budget $3 million for these spots.

This brings our payroll to $131.55 million with two starting pitchers to add. And now we get down to our argument. How much should the Opening Day payroll be? I think $140 million is a reasonable number for the Mets payroll. It is sufficiently large for a big-market club like the Mets, yet keeps the Wilpons under the luxury tax threshold. Plus, it fits in nicely with what the club has spent in the past three years.

Right now I see Alderson’s job as bringing in the absolute two best pitchers he can with the roughly $8.5 million he has to meet my payroll number. From all of the options he has available, he needs to value each one correctly and maximize the wins for the 2011 squad.

If Alderson wants to limit his acquisitions to one-year contracts, I have no problem with that. My complaint with the way that the off-season is going is that he is seemingly balking at paying salaries above $2 million for his preferred starting pitcher options, given the one-year restriction.

Currently, my issue with the club is that they are seemingly “punting” the 2011 season, unwilling to pay to bring in the best players that would sign for a one-year deal. Let’s say Alderson anoints Jeff Francis as the best pitcher out there willing to sign a one-year deal. If some other club signs Francis for $10 million, then he was not in the Mets’ budget and no one should be upset.

But if Francis signs elsewhere for $3 million, then the Mets are being needlessly cheap. And that’s where I disagree with the club’s philosophy this season.

I trust this new front office and their player evaluation skills. But we do not know what payroll they are working with for the Opening Day roster. I think the payroll should be $140 million but perhaps the Wilpons have given Alderson and company a different number. If that’s the case, the problem is ownership, not management.

But Alderson should spend close to whatever payroll he gets from the Wilpons. What is the use in having the best player evaluation team there is if you are not going to use all of the money available? Why place any additional barriers to success?

Seemingly, previous GM Omar Minaya was given a budget and spent it, without enough thought to the proper valuation of players or how the players would fit as a team. Right now it appears that Alderson properly values players and how they would fit, but is not willing to spend all of the budget.

Of course, all this would be easier if we knew what the budget was. The Mets have been very transparent with a lot of their moves this off-season. But the budget is not one of them. Perhaps this is necessary, to keep agents from having the upper hand in negotiations. But after the season begins, I hope the organization is explicit in what was available.

Perhaps right now the refusal to sign a starting pitcher is Alderson working to get the best deal so he can add his top two targets. If so, that is great. But that’s not the impression I get.

Because if we miss out on top starting pitchers who signed one year contracts elsewhere, than this offseason is not as good as it could have been. And we should know if the blame for that falls on the Wilpons or Alderson.