Now that the panic of the losing streak is over, we can look to see the reasons behind the Mets’ poor start.
Last year, the Mets were world beaters at home but couldn’t buy a win on the road. They were 47-34 in Citi Field compared to 32-49 in road parks. The home record was not too surprising. Teams that open a new park frequently enjoy an exaggerated home field advantage in years 2-5, as they figure out how to play in the park quicker than their opponents. But last year’s road mark was a huge issue.
Flash forward to 2011. The Mets are close to treading water on the road with a 4-5 mark. I think most people would have signed up for this, as the team opened with back-to-back road series in Florida and Philadelphia and just finished up a series in Atlanta.
The problem in 2011 has been the ugly 1-6 home mark. In no homestand last season did the Mets win only one game. And if the results weren’t surprising enough, there’s the matter of how the Mets are losing. It would be one thing if they were losing games 4-1 and 2-0. But the Mets allowed 44 runs in their seven home games, an average of 6.3 runs per game.
Yes, four of those games came against the Rockies, who currently sit in second place in the National League with a 5.67 runs per game average. But three of them came against the Nationals, who rank below the Mets with a 4.13 runs per game average. In the three game set at Citi Field, Washington put 17 runs on the board (5.7 r/g).
The ball is flying out of Citi Field with ease here in April of 2011. Last year, ESPN had Citi Field with a home run park factor of 0.719, the fourth-toughest park in baseball to leave the yard. This year, it has a 1.378 home run park factor, the ninth-easiest park to go yard.
In seven games covering 65 innings, Mets pitchers have allowed 10 HR in Citi Field. In nine road games spanning 77 innings, Mets hurlers have also allowed 10 HR. Last year Mets pitchers gave up 47 HR at home compared to 88 on the road. And that was with 29 more home innings pitched.
And it’s not just the pitchers. Mets hitters are also hitting more HR at home, although not at the rate their pitchers are allowing them. The batters have 5 HR at Citi Field and 4 HR on the road.
The most likely explanation is that this is a small sample size issue and by the end of the year the Mets and their opponents will hit fewer HR at Citi Field than in road parks. But it does not alter the fact that increased HR output has hurt the Mets so far.
Troy Tulowitzki leaving town will certainly help matters.
In the upcoming homestand, the Mets will host Houston and Arizona. Those two teams have combined for a 3-8 road record this year. The Diamondbacks are above average with 15 HR (10 at Chase Field) this year but the Astros rank last in the NL with 8 HR. Hopefully the pitchers can keep the ball in the yard and give their hitters a chance to win the game.
Finally, while the Mets’ poor home start is troubling, we should keep in mind that it’s not much worse than what happened in 2010 when the team played so well at Citi Field. Last year, the Mets dropped four of their first six games at home. On their second homestand of the year they went 9-1.