As the Mets inch closer to .500, all this talk amongst the blogosphere of the Mets blowing up the team at the trade deadline has got to stop.
There is still approximately two and a half more months until the deadline, so lets exhale for a minute and watch our team play the course and lets the chips fall where they may.
Why are so many people in a rush to break up the Mets? Sure the Mets have been faced with some adversity, but this is not the time to quit.
One of the hottest names being mentioned on the trade circuit is none other than Carlos Beltran.
Well, after Thursday’s effort in which Beltran became the eighth Met to ever hit three home runs in a game (and first in the majors this year), teams are going to want a piece of him even more.
Beltran has been better than anyone could have expected, and if he keeps up this pace, well then maybe he can stick around after all. Moreover, maybe we should embrace it.
But, lost in Beltran’s fabulous performance, was the fact that the Mets knocked around a legitimate ace (albeit a struggling one) in Ubaldo Jimenez and defeated a very good Rockie’s team en route to a series win on the road. Remember this was the same Rockie team that used and abused the Mets at Citi Field back in April while steam rolling their way to four game series sweep.
Mets fans should realize that their team is not said and done for-as is any team at this moment. I know it’s difficult to keep an upbeat attitude, especially with the Mets down another important slugger in Ike Davis, but the team is just three games away from being .500 with another winnable series coming up in Houston.
For the time being let’s avoid being caught up in the trade winds that have enthralled the fan base.
I’m not suggesting being naive to the thought that Sandy Alderson and company are not preparing and planning for the future with an eye on making moves at the deadline. Of course, we all know what possible returns a player like Beltran, Jose Reyes, Francisco Rodriguez and heck, maybe even David Wright might bring back. Not to mention, depending on whom you talk to, Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Chris Capuano might be available as well.
The bottom line though, is not to throw in the towel just yet. There is plenty of time before the trade deadline approaches. Let’s see if this team has any more fight in them for another streak.
With that said, I am reminded of the slogan that was to define the 2011 Mets’ season.
Keep Calm and Carry on.
Dan, I think that Met fans must be honest and realize that this team is not talented enough to compete. I just wrote a blog on this very topic with exact opposite opionion for NJ.com
http://blog.nj.com/mets/2011/05/beltran_is_great_mets_winnow_w.html.
Alderson and Co. can not be fooled into thinking this team is a contender. While I don’t think we should trade Reyes, I believe that the Mets must sell anyone else that they can. Beltran, Capuano, Buchholz, Izzy, K-Rod, all might have value. If you trade all of those players and recieve one stud starting pitcher it was probably worth it. Which of those players are part of this team’s future?
Why is this team not talented enough? Even with Bay and Wright struggling and now Davis on the DL they’re still scoring runs. The SP is not great but is adequate. The RP has been fine once a few moves were made.
The Mets are 12-7 (.631) in their last 19 games.
While there’s nothing wrong with exploring what the trade value of their players is, a sell at all costs approach is too soon at best and downright foolish on the other end of the spectrum.
I don’t think the Mets should take a “sell at all costs” approach as you put it, but IF some of thier players have value it MUST be explored. What are your reasonable expectations of the Mets this season? What is the future of Capuano, Beltran, Buchholz, Izzy, K-Rod, etc with the Mets? In my opinion, the Mets are mediocre team and none of those players have a future with the Mets.
Read my article, last year we all thought the Mets were contenders. They are 2 games over .500 and had a healthy Santana. Are we really going to fall into that trap again? The Mets have an opportunity to build this team for the future even without giving up major pieces in Wright or Reyes.
Before the season started I thought it was an 83-85 win team. I see no reason to change that point of view now. Is that enough for a Wild Card berth? Unlikely, but not impossible.
However, I think it’s much more likely that the Mets will make the playoffs than someone trading a stud pitcher, as you put it, for any of the guys you mentioned.
So you would rather take the slim chance of this team making the playoffs this year then trade a handful of players that have absolutely no future with the Mets in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough?
I think the chances are MUCH higher of a team willing to trade a good prospect for one of the Mets relievers or Carlos Beltran or Capuano then there is the Mets making the playoffs and better yet, winning a World Series. There is strength in numbers when it comes to prospects. If you recieve a handful of players there is a stronger chance of one of those players being productive. Better yet, perhaps we can parlay those players into a deal for a proven player.
None of those guys is going to bring back more than a “B” level prospect. And that’s with the Mets picking up the majority of the contract for K-Rod or Beltran, too.
The best-case scenario is the Mets getting someone like Jon Niese back in a trade. And it’s much more likely that they get someone not nearly that good.
Who did the Mets get the last time they traded veterans for prospects?
Kole Strayhorn
Jose Diaz
Victor Diaz
Andrew Salvo
Edwin Almonte
Royce Ring
Ryan Biconda
Jason Anderson
Anderson Garcia
That’s what they got for a power closer, a 34-year-old OF with a .925 OPS (and no health issues) and an All-Star 2B.
And teams have gotten savvier about giving up prospects in rentals since then.
People are vastly overestimating what the Mets can get in trade for these guys. Sure, if someone wants to do the equivalent of Kazmir for Zambrano – by all means do that deal. But chances are the Mets will get offered today’s equivalent of the trash listed above.
And no, I don’t want to trade for the pu-pu platter and hope to hit the lottery. I’d rather hold onto the guys and hope for meaningful games in September, instead.
We might not get top tier prospects from the players the Mets have to offer, but there is a better chance of getting a good player then there is of playing meaningful games in September. Last year Matt Capps was traded for a top prospect, catcher Wilson Ramos. For one year K-Rod can’t be just as good as Capps? Especially if the Mets assume some of his remaining salary. In 2009, the Cardinals gave up their best prospect for Holliday, who was a rental player at the time. Beltran is on pace to have better stats than Holliday did that year. Also in 2009, the Giants traded their 2nd best pitching prospect for Freddy Sanchez. The Cardinals got a solid starting pitcher in Jake Westbrook for Ryan Ludwick last year. Similar moves can really help the Mets future.
Let’s take these one by one.
1. The Twins had All-Star Joe Mauer at catcher. They also had a bullpen in shambles because their All-Star closer Joe Nathan was out for the year. They were in contention and traded for Capps to be their closer.
No one is going to trade for K-Rod to be their closer because of his contract clause. The only team that will trade for K-Rod will use him as a set-up man. And no one trades the equivalent of a top catching prospect for a set-up man.
2. Matt Holliday was five years younger than Beltran and did not come with any health issues. And the top prospect they gave up was a guy with limited defensive value who also was blocked at his ultimate position by an All-Star on the Cardinals.
3. Tim Alderson, the guy traded for Sanchez, turned in a 5.62 ERA at Double-A last year and a 6.98 ERA in the Florida State League. At the time of the deal this was considered a steal for the Pirates. And this is an example of why it’s hard to get excited about pitching prospects that other teams are willing to part with.
4. Jake Westbrook is a 33-year-old pitcher with a 6.92 ERA this year. Lifetime he’s 75-78 with a 4.37 ERA.
You have to be realistic about what the Mets can get for the players they have to deal. Other clubs are not going to bowl them over for offers for a 34-year OF with bad knees and a closer with a poison vesting option.
You’re taking statistics of specific people I mentioned, clearly we aren’t trading for those actual players. If we can get a team’s 2nd best pitching prospect, or a middle of the rotation starter, how do you not make that trade?! I don’t understand your logic at all. The Mets aren’t making the playoffs, and many of the players on this team are not part of the future. Why not at least TRY to get something out of it.
But you’re using those people as indications of what the Mets could get. All I’m saying is that the situations in which those players were traded were not similar to the ones that the Mets are in currently.
Teams are not going to bend over backwards to help out the Mets. It’s not only what the player might be worth, but how much leverage the team trading has. The Mets have no leverage in this situation. Beltran can’t be offered arbitration to get draft picks, he’s old, he has an injury history and no one is going to take that contract.
K-Rod has no value to a team as a closer because no one will willingly pay that option. He’s got some value as a setup man but that limits what a team will offer in return. And that’s assuming the Mets pick up the lion’s share of his contract, too.
Why would any team give up their second-best pitching prospect for Beltran, considering all the baggage he comes with? Why not find out what the Orioles want for Luke Scott or the White Sox for Carlos Quentin or the Pirates for Garrett Jones?
Sandy Alderson absolutely should know the trade value of every player on his team. But just because he knows that a team is willing to trade a C+ type pitcher for Beltran doesn’t mean he should actually do it.
But Mets fans are acting like teams are going to trip over themselves to trade for their players. And while I have no doubt that all contenders would love to have a Beltran or a K-Rod on their team, I just don’t think they’re going to offer enough to make it worthwhile.
I think it’s too early to discount in that anything could happen. Supposing the Yanks are in contention and Mariano goes down. Don’t the Yankees have some good minor leaguers to offer in trade? What happens to the Mets is that they are usually around .500 and possibly in the hunt for a wild card slot and the front office waits too long or possible players that could fetch prospects wind up on the DL and can’t be considered for trade.
Look, I’m all for optimism. But the best way Carlos Beltran can help the team is to keep playing well until he can be traded for some decent prospects. Yes, the line-up is decent (although Jason Bay has apparently forgotten how to hit) but the rotation is… Pelfrey. Niese. Dickey. Gee. Capuano. I’m sorry, but… that’s not good enough. It just isn’t. Will Santana be back? Maybe. Who knows?
Besides, if Beltran plays well all year and the Mets still fall shy of the playoffs… then what? You want to sign him to another deal? I don’t think he wants any part of that. I think he knows he needs to go to the AL where he can ease into a DH role. He looks okay now, but that knee condition is a chronic one. I wouldn’t risk signing him to another multi-year deal in Citi Field.
Look, I agree about Reyes: let’s just hold off on all the “trade Reyes” talk, let’s sign him long-term. But the best thing about watching Beltran hit so well right now is watching the potential trade deadline price for him get driven up.
Great Post!! I still feel that pitching is what wins in the end and none of the guys listed is a proven winner. And of course neither are prospects but overall this organization has a weak minor league system. I think you build with pitching, shortstop and catcher. They are the most difficult roles to fill.
Woo hoo three in a row!
Just trying to throw some positive news into the mix. I tend to agree with ya Adam and I appreciate the feedback.
My whole point was lets just WAIT it out-no need to rush. If the Mets are in the position they’re in now (under .500) when it the deadline is near then maybe you should sell, but for now you never know. The offense is starting to click-big hits for Bay and Wright tonight. Not to mention F-Mart. Bullpen has been fabulous, and the starters are doing just enough to keep us in ball games.