Josh Thole outhits Ronny Paulino in last six weeks

Manager Terry Collins has given more playing time recently to Ronny Paulino, essentially splitting time equally behind the plate between Paulino and Josh Thole for the last six weeks. Before the season started, I suggested that the duo would make an ideal platoon team, with Thole getting the majority of the ABs due to being a lefty hitter. But Collins seems to be simply splitting the at-bats, with Paulino getting starts against RHP, but not when Dickey is pitching.

It’s hard to argue with getting Paulino more playing time. He is batting .333 overall and in his last 25 games, he’s batting .346 with an .818 OPS. There’s only one problem here. Over that same time span, Thole has been better. This gets obscured because Thole got off to a terrible start, and his full season numbers look underwhelming, but in the last six weeks, Thole has been better than Paulino.

Here are their stats since May 24th, when Paulino broke out of 1-14 slump with a 2-for-4 game.

RP – .346/.361/.457 for an .818 OPS in 84 PA
JT – .329/.430/.438 for an .869 OPS in 86 PA

Thole has an .869 OPS in this span, 51 points higher than Paulino. Paulino holds the edge in AVG but that’s due to his .391 BABIP in that span. Thole’s BABIP is .348, which is elevated, but much closer to a sustainable mark. Also, Thole has a huge edge in OBP. Plus, when we compare their ISO, we see that Paulino is not making up much ground with his slugging. Paulino’s ISO (SLG-AVG) is .111 while Thole has a .109 ISO.

There is an old joke about the guy who has an ugly scarecrow in the front yard of his suburban house. When his neighbor asks him why, he replies, “It’s to keep the elephants away.” When his neighbor tells him that’s ridiculous because there’s no elephants anywhere close, the man exclaims, “See, it works!”

Some people may claim that Thole is doing better because he cannot handle being the primary catcher. When Paulino’s playing time went up, so did Thole’s average. But that’s the “scarecrow to keep the elephants away” argument.

Thole had a .247 BABIP before May 25th. Thole may not be a great defender. He may not ever hit for much power. But no one doubts that he is a major league hitter. And quite simply, major league hitters with little power do not carry a .247 BABIP over an entire season. Thole was due to start hitting and the fact that it happened when Paulino got hot is merely a coincidence.

If we look back to last year, we see that Thole got off to a horrible start in the minors. At Triple-A Buffalo, Thole posted a .172/.242/.259 line in April. There’s more evidence that Thole is simply a slow starter than there is that he cannot handle the full-time catching duties.

But it is hard to argue with success. So long as Paulino is producing, there’s little reason to change the status quo. However, we can see from last year what happens when Paulino carries a heavy load over an extended period of time.

In his first 74 games, Paulino had a .313/.351/.432 line and nobody on the Marlins was missing the injured John Baker. But in his next 37 games covering 139 PA, Paulino had a .177/.252/.234 slash line and looked wore down before his PED suspension ended his season.

I still think that Thole and Paulino should platoon. Thole gets the majority of the ABs and the charitably-listed 250-pound Paulino stays fresh and ready to mash LHP and Mariano Rivera. But even if you prefer Paulino to get more playing time, please remember that Thole has been the better hitter the past six weeks.