From 2005-2008, David Wright posted OPS+ numbers between 133 and 149 each year and was a top 20 MVP candidate all four years, finishing in the top 10 three times. Since then Wright has not been quite as good. In 2009 he had a 124 OPS, last year it was 130 and so far this year it’s 124 again. These are good numbers, they’re just not at the same level they were earlier in his career. And when you add in Wright’s defensive decline, he’s gone from an 8.9 fWAR in 2007 to a 3.5 fWAR in 2009 and a 4.0 fWAR last year.
But, after spending time on the disabled list earlier this year, Wright has come back as a different hitter. Here are his slash lines before and after the DL stint:
Before – .226/.337/.404 in 172 PA
After — .303/.382/.486 in 212 PA
The numbers above are heavily influenced by Wright’s BABIP. Before the DL trip, he had a .276 BABIP and since he’s returned, Wright has a .342 BABIP. His ISO is almost identical — .178 before the DL and .183 afterwards. So, if this is a BABIP-fueled change, how can we assume that he’s a different hitter?
The big difference with Wright since his return can be seen in his strikeout rates. Here are Wright’s K% numbers, starting in 2005. Note the big difference in rates in 2009 and 2010 from what came earlier.
17.2, 17.1, 16.2, 16.0, 22.7, 24.0
From 2005-2008, Wright had a 16.6 K% — 459 Ks in 2,764 PA
From 2009-2010, Wright had a 23.4 K% — 301 Ks in 1,288 PA
Before DL stint, Wright had a 25.0 K% — 43 Ks in 172 PA
After DL stint, Wright has a 16.5 K% — 35 Ks in 212 PA
In 2010, Wright had 670 PA. With his pre-DL K%, Wright would have finished a year in which he had 670 PA with 168 strikeouts. But with his post-DL K%, Wright would finish a 670 PA season with 111 strikeouts. That’s 57 more times to hit the ball. And with a .382 OBP since his return from the DL, that’s roughly 22 more times on base.
Let’s look for a comparison for how those 22 extra times on base might impact Wright’s bottom line. In 2006, Wright had 661 PA and 252 H+BB+HBP. Last year, he had 670 PA and 237 H+BB+HBP. His ISO of .220 was identical in both seasons and his BB% was 10% in 2006 and 10.3 last year. His BABIP was close both years, too (.344 vs. .335).
The 15 extra times on base (and 9 fewer PA) led to an OPS 56 points higher in 2006 than it was in 2010. If this comparison is objective (and we would need to factor in run environment), it would be reasonable to expect Wright’s reduction in strikeout rate to add somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 points of OPS to his bottom line.
Since returning from the DL, Wright has an .868 OPS. Before the DL stint he had a .741 OPS. Most of that increase is due to positive regression with his BABIP. But a significant factor is also his decreased strikeout rate. Since returning from the DL, Wright’s K% and BABIP have returned to 2005-2008 levels and that has made a noticeable difference in his offensive output.
Now, if we could only bring back his 2008-era range on defense…