Earlier this offseason, four writers at various points collaborated on a prospect list for the Mets that went 50 deep. Click here if you’re curious about those rankings. My participation was on the lower part of the list, knowing that this top 10 list you’re about to read would be coming out. This list is the work of just one writer – me. This is neither a regurgitation of other lists nor a composite ranking. This is my viewpoint of the prospects currently in the system who will have the greatest impact at the major league level.
In many ways, this is a fool’s errand.
At best, it’s more art than science. There’s no magic formula you can plug into a spreadsheet to measure how the future will turn out for a group of 17-24 year olds. That’s not to say that numbers have no place in these rankings. Numbers play an important part. But factors outside the white lines play a huge role, too. Scouting reports, where a player was drafted and how much money a guy received are important considerations and you ignore these at your own peril.
Nobody nails a top prospect list, especially when viewed in hindsight. Once my list had Cory Vaughn as the system’s second-best prospect. That one didn’t work out too well. Nobody had Jacob deGrom as the club’s top prospect heading into 2014 and few had Matt Harvey at the top of their list before he made his debut, although that was one my list had right back in 2012.
Let’s take a look at last year’s list and see what worked and what didn’t.
Good – Ranking Matz (5) and Herrera (8), which neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus did in their top 10 lists.
Bad – Including Cesar Puello (7) and Darin Gorski (10), neither of whom seem to have much buzz here in early January.
With that as our backdrop, here’s my list of the 2015 Top 10 Prospects for the Mets:
10. Robert Whalen, RHP, Lo-A, 9-1, 2.01 ERA, 53 Ks in 62.2 IP
Sometimes you have a feeling about a player. My guess is no one else will have Whalen in their top 10. For most people, they probably include him ranked with a group of other pitchers, like Gsellman, Meisner and Oswalt – guys with a lot of promise but ones they want to see at a higher level before getting on the bandwagon. There’s nothing wrong with that viewpoint. This time next year, maybe it’s another guy who has separated himself from the herd. But I’m going to follow my intuition here.
Whalen has the best curveball in the system and sits comfortably in the low 90s with his fastball. Pitching coach Marc Valdes said his changeup was developing into an out pitch. On top of that, he does a nice job of limiting walks, with a lifetime 2.4 BB/9 mark in pro ball. However, he’s got two things working against him. One, he’s performed primarily in pitchers parks and the second is that he’s only amassed 143 innings since being drafted.
While Savannah is a notorious pitcher’s park, Whalen had seven of his 11 appearances come on the road, where he put up a 1.69 ERA in 37.1 IP. He missed a good chunk of the season due to an infection on his pitching hand, but came back to make seven starts, going 5-1 with a 2.11 ERA for the Sand Gnats. A healthy season in 2015 could put him on everyone’s list this time next year.
9. Dominic Smith, 1B, Lo-A, .683 OPS in 518 PA
After slow-playing his first two first-round picks, Sandy Alderson finally placed his top pick in the appropriate league last year. Smith got off to a brutal start, with a dismal .373 OPS after 75 PA. But over his next 98 games, Smith put up a .745 OPS, despite hitting just 1 HR in 363 ABs. He’s never going to hit 30 HR in the majors but Smith will develop double digit power once he learns to pull the ball in hitter’s counts. He makes good contact, is willing to take a walk and was voted the top defensive first baseman in the South Atlantic League. Too many people are down on Smith because of his lack of power. But he held his own last year under difficult circumstances, got a ton of game-time experience and still has a very bright future, especially if he can work on his body some.
8. Amed Rosario, SS, Short-Season, .717 OPS in 290 PA
His $1.75 million bonus was the largest-ever in club history for an international player. Then he debuted in the U.S. in the Appalachian League, where he put up a .637 OPS as a 17 year old. Rosario followed that up with an 80-point OPS increase as a teenager in a league dominated by college players. There is a lot of projection in this ranking, and he ranks this high with the belief that he’ll be able to stick at shortstop. With 2015 to be spent in Grayston Stadium, it may be two years before we see a big offensive year from Rosario. But that’s okay. It gives him a chance to grow into his body and iron out some things defensively. If Rosario does develop offensively, when it clicks for him, expect him to move quickly.
7. Michael Conforto, OF, Short-Season, .851 OPS in 186 PA
A college bat who combines power and patience, Conforto had a strong debut for Brooklyn, even if he didn’t quite deliver the over-the-fence power we might have hoped. On the plus side, his defense in left was better than advertised and fears about him being Duda-level bad seem no longer on the table. Right now the most intriguing thing in regards to Conforto is where the Mets will start him in 2015. Plawecki, the previous highest-drafted college player under Alderson, began his first full year in Lo-A. Conforto will be at least in Hi-A, with a shot to be in Double-A.
6. Brandon Nimmo, OF, .906 OPS in 279 PA in Hi-A and a .735 OPS in 279 PA in Double-A
After escaping Grayson Stadium, Nimmo tore through the Florida State League and forced his way to Double-A. He hit a wall in Binghamton, where he batted just .190 in his first 23 games. But from July 13 through the end of the year, he notched a .762 OPS. It’s possible he could start the year back in Double-A with Conforto; the two are almost the exact same age, with Conforto being less than a month older. As both are first-round draft picks, they will likely be forever linked. Conforto has more HR power but Nimmo might be a hair better in every other phase. Either way, right now it appears close between the two outfielders and Nimmo gets the nod with his success in Hi-A and a half year of Double-A already under his belt.
5. Marcos Molina, RHP, Short-Season, 7-3, 1.77 ERA, 91 Ks in 76.1 IP
It’s hard to imagine a better season than the one turned in by Molina for Brooklyn in 2014. In addition to the sparkling numbers above, he had a 0.838 WHIP, a 5.1 K/BB ratio and he allowed just 2 HR in 76.1 IP. He features three pitches, including a fastball that has been clocked as high as 97. Lots of pitchers look like future MLBers when they ply their craft in Brooklyn and Savannah; Molina looks like a star.
4. Steven Matz, LHP, 2.21 ERA in 69.1 IP at Hi-A and a 2.27 ERA in 71.1 IP at Double-A
Another year removed from surgery, Matz put up a fantastic year in 2014. He was excellent while pitching in St. Lucie and he took a step forward once he got the call to Binghamton. Matz made progress with his off-speed stuff but his meal ticket is still excellent command of his mid-90s fastball. The last hurdle is to see how he handles the challenging pitching environment of Las Vegas. The good news is he’ll get to work with pitching coach Frank Viola, who may help put the finishing touches on his changeup.
3. Dilson Herrera, 2B, .765 OPS in 309 PA in Hi-A; .967 OPS in 278 PA in Double-A and .710 OPS in 66 PA in MLB
Not many 20 year olds look like they belong in the majors but Herrera certainly didn’t look out of place in his surprising call-up last year. The heir-apparent to Daniel Murphy, Herrera is a solid defender at second base and he has lightning in his bat. Among players with at least 200 PA in the Eastern League last year, Herrera finished second in the loop in both wOBA (.424) and wRC+ (166), trailing just Mookie Betts in both categories. Herrera starts 2015 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, biding his time for a spot to open in Queens.
Since 1990, only five second basemen in the majors have hit .300, stole 20 bases and cracked 20 HR in a single season. Three of those are in the Hall of Fame and a fourth has an MVP on his resume. Over his three levels in 2014, Herrera hit .312 with 16 HR and 23 SB. Of course, there’s a big difference between putting up numbers in Binghamton and the majors. But Herrera is just scratching the surface of his talent and it will be exciting to see how he develops.
2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Triple-A, 9-7, 4.60 ERA, 145 Ks in 133 IP
It’s not easy to pitch in Las Vegas. Syndergaard had a 9.81 K/9 and a 3.37 K/BB ratio last year but had an ugly ERA due to a .378 BABIP. It’s something to keep in mind for Matz before automatically punching his ticket to Citi Field.
Still, Syndergaard grabs the top spot on prospect lists by BA, BP, Sickels and FanGraphs. Mets fans drool over the dream rotation of Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz, with Syndergaard being the youngest of the group at age 22. He’s got everything you want to see in a pitching prospect and everyone predicts a long and productive MLB career for him.
1. Rafael Montero, RHP,
Once again, Montero pitched better than Syndergaard in the same league and also experienced time at a more advanced level. Syndergaard’s troubles at Las Vegas are correctly written off due to the pitching environment. Montero’s struggles in the majors – in a much smaller sample – are viewed as some definitive proof of inferiority, even though he finished the year with the Mets on an up note.
Due to a combination of nerves, opponent and questionable pitch calling, Montero allowed 8 HR in his first 25 IP in the majors. He did not allow a homer in his final 19.1 frames. In his last three starts of the year, Montero allowed 2 ER in 18 IP and struck out 19 batters. While the opposition in those three games were all teams with records under .500, it’s still better to dominate bad teams in the majors than to get knocked around in Las Vegas.
Let’s say for a minute that Syndergaard produced the year in 2014 that Montero did. The narrative would be how he overcame injury and a rocky start with the Mets to turn it around in his second stint in the majors. A spot would have been cleared for him in the rotation and he would be listed among the front-runners for Rookie of the Year honors. So why isn’t it that way for Montero?
It will be curious to see if the Mets transition Montero to the bullpen or keep him as a starter, opening the year in Triple-A. Hopefully he showed enough in his last three starts to remain in the rotation, even if it means Las Vegas. More work with Viola would be a nice thing for Montero, who needs to throw his changeup twice as often as he did in the majors last year.
Of course, the catcher/pitching coach/manager will have to call for the pitch in order for that to happen.
Finally, take a trip down memory lane with me. Back in 1991, an undersized right hander rocketed through the minors, ending his season in the Pacific Coast League. Across multiple levels, he posted a 2.28 ERA and a 1.083 WHIP, to go along with a 9.7 K/9. In ’92, he took some lumps in Triple-A but still posted a solid season and made his MLB debut. The following year, he spent the overwhelming majority of it in the bullpen in the majors, where he had a fabulous season, posting a 2.61 ERA over 107 IP.
In the offseason, he was traded straight up for a position player. His new club immediately placed him in the rotation and in the next 12 years, he went 187-78 despite pitching through two strike seasons and in the heart of the Silly Ball era. Earlier this month, Pedro Martinez was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.
Since then, every undersized righty from the Dominican gets compared to Martinez; few have ever matched his ’91 and ’92 seasons as closely as Montero. For the Mets’ sake, let’s hope they don’t put him in the bullpen and then trade him for pennies on the dollar. As Gary Cohen clearly stated at the end of 2014, Montero is a starting pitcher.
*****
Other rookie-eligible players likely to play in the majors in 2015 – Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel, Cory Mazzoni, Kevin Plawecki, Matt Reynolds, Hansel Robles, Wilfredo Tovar.
Top 12 prospects likely to make a future Top Prospects list – Wuilmer Becerra, Matthew Bowman, Gavin Cecchini, Chris Flexen, Robert Gsellman, Vicente Lupo, Casey Meisner, Akeel Morris, Corey Oswalt, Milton Ramos, Jhoan Urena, Gabriel Ynoa.
*****
Previous Top Prospect Lists
2014 Top 10 prospects
2013 Top 10 prospects
2012 Top 10 prospects
2011 Top 10 prospects
2010 Top 10 prospects
2009 Top 10 prospects
Yesterday Wally Backman said Steven Matz is the best prospect in the system. I have to agree with him.
Last year in Double-A, Matz had a 1.121 WHIP and a 2.64 FIP in 71.1 IP. When he was in Binghamton, Montero had a 0.915 WHIP and a 2.00 FIP in 66.2 IP.
Plawecki not even in your top 10? Whalen over Plawecki?
I view a mid-rotation starter as more valuable than an average defensive catcher with limited pop. Give me Dillon Gee over Josh Thole.
Plawecki’s upside is so much higher than Josh Thole. Thole’s wRC+ is 79 for his career. Steamer projects Plawecki to put up a 99 wRC+ in the majors next year. To compare the two is kind of ridiculous.
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Actually, the Steamer projection is for an 85 wRC+ — and that’s for a grand total of 1 PA. That’s the same number of PA projected for Reese Havens, who retired following the 2013 season. Might not want to put too much weight on that one.
You’re cherry picking a bit. Montero’s stats have come back to earth a bit since that magical run at the Bing. He’s a top prospect for sure, but Matz has better size, throws left handed, and projects better at the big league level. Personally I would sell high on Montero.
That’s an interesting definition of cherry picking – comparing similar totals at Double-A, the highest level that Matz has pitched. I’ll be glad to compare Matz’ stats at LVG to Montero, once he has them.
Your thoughts on Montero are very interesting. He sure looks like a guy on the Heath Bell organizational train to nowhere, and it may end up looking just as bad.
My position has been that he could start in the pen and develop from there; doesn’t mean he can’t become a starter at a later point.
I keep going back to Bartolo & the utter foolishness of that two-year contract.
James, the contract wasn’t bad. They had plenty of opportunity to move him in late August and clean out an extra spot on the 40 man roster to protect Centeno or Verrett that ultimately they couldn’t protect, and also pickup a prospect. Their stubbornness was more to blame than the contract. It turned out ok for today’s market and Colon did what they needed him to do.
Bartolo > Centeno/Verrett. Let’s be realistic.
Plawecki is a catcher with solid skills at most things a catcher needs to do to play everyday in the majors. I can’t drop him from the top 10 because that is a valuable commodity and he’s so close to the majors. I think Whalen is one of the most underrated prospects in the system, but I can’t put him in the top 10 over Plawecki.
I personally don’t believe that Montero is the top prospect in the system, but if he becomes another Pedro, that works for me.
Montero should not even be on this list ……. because he should have been pitching in the major leagues last year. He is fallout from the Colon signing in the push to get back to the 79 win plateau of 2010.
I can’t agree that Plawecki is not a top 10 prospect. The times I have seen him play, he showed power and gap to gap ability to drive the ball, unlike Josh Thole. If TdA goes on the DL we will get a chance to see Kevin play at Citi. I expect him to at least be a September call up. Brian, he is a hitter.
The other special player is Dilson Herrera. I think he will one day be an all star.
I would have put Syndergaard over Montero only because he has a higher ceiling but I am a Montero fan and it is annoying that they didn’t give him the opportunity because Colon was in his way.
The Mets puzzle me. Flores is given an opportunity to be the short stop in a projected playoff season. They don’t bring in anyone to compete because what is available is not enough of an upgrade in their opinion. Yet they brought in Colon, in a non playoff season, who has impeded Montero and maybe to some extent impeded Syndergaard. Colon wasn’t a significant upgrade and was an expenditure of $20M that could have been used elsewhere.
Metsense, doesn’t it seem their action are always contradictory to their approach. They rebuild, but prefer to rebuild with veterans over their younger players. And, they act like every nickel must be accounted for. Perfect way to run a billion dollar business, act like time will wait for your prospects?
It would be nice to see them clean out some of the fat, but I cannot trust this regime to have vision or to commit to seeing their youth grow.
“…clean out some of the fat.”
Are you referring to Bartolo, perchance?
I knew we were going there. But, I’m referring to Colon, Gee, Tejada, and any other player we know is not going to be around.
Very interesting as usual Brian. Also quite thought provoking. As you know, i have deep concern that Montero may be trapped between the minors and majors, and between starting and relieving (although I don’t see him as a reliever). I guess he will have some chance to show his pinpoint accuracy, but failing that, I wonder if he gets traded while there is perceived value. What is it that they say? Forget April and September stats? It paints a bleak mlb record for Montero, especially considering the opponent quality in Sept. Perhaps he just needs to get the butterflies out, but if that pinpoint control is a shade off, it’s gonna be a homerfest against him, saw eve seen. I know this will sound nuts, but even during his spring training starts, it was quite clear that deGrom was a cut above last year. I recall watching the games and thinking forget Montero, what about this deGrom kid? Montero better have a ridiculous spring training. As for me, my ranking for the top 5 is:
1. Matz
2. Syndergaard
3. Herrera
4. Conforto
5. Montero
I keep dreaming about Harvey (R), Matz (L), deGrom (R), Syndergaard (R), with Montero and Wheeler brining back a SS.
Really looking forward to Molina’s development. He’s still young and with 91 K in 76 innings, he’s either going to be a solid starting pitcher, or could be a lights out relief pitcher.
I am still not sold on Nimmo yet. Still strikes out a lot and have yet to see the power we keep hearing about. Think this a big year for him to prove what he’s got. Also I was with you on Cory Vaughn. I thought he was going to be a stud.
Gotta agree with some of the other guys here. How is Plawecki left off the list in favor of a very green pitcher in the minors? Whalen may be something years in the future, but KP looks like a major league catcher in 2015 or 2016, and that’s worth something.
Not sure I’d put Montero ahead of Syndergaard either. Sure, Montero did look worlds better in the end of his ML 2014 stint, but his ceiling has always been limited by his off-speed stuff. Thor could be a legitimate ace if he puts it all together.
Unless KP is dealt, he’s a backup on the Mets, playing once a week and waiting for an injury. If he is dealt, my take is he’s a run of the mill catcher. He’s not great defensively, he’s not going to hit .300 and he’s not going to hit 20 HR. He won’t embarrass you but he won’t do anything to push you towards a championship, either. At one point, a guy with an upside of a mult-year starter as a catcher would have been an easy lock for the Mets’ top 10 prospect list. Right now I feel the system is deep enough so that’s no longer the case.
Keeping in mind d’Arnaud’s injury history, and especially the concussions, it’s not bad to have good depth at C.
Indeed. I’m quite happy to have him in the system. That being said, I wouldn’t let him hold up a deal for an impact SS.
Good list!
Glad I don’t see anyone named Gavin.
I don’t fault you putting Montero #1 and think it’s an interesting position.
Ranking purely on talent ceilings:
1. Amed Rosario
2. Noah Syndergaard
3. Brandon Nimmo
4. Steven Matz
5. Dominic Smith
6. Michael Conforto
7. Rafael Montero
8. Dilson Herrera
9. Marcos Molina
10. Robert Whalen
Based on floor I’d rank them:
1. Rafael Montero
2. Dilson Herrera
3. Noah Syndergaard
4. Steven Matz
5. Michael Conforto
6. Brandon Nimmo
7. Robert Whalen
8. Dominic Smith
9. Amed Rosario
10. Marcos Molina
So my rankings don’t quite match up, but I like yours just fine. Nice insight on the players.
As this list seems to be for “ceilings”, I think it could be very accurate. I’m not quite sure Montero has the slider yet to accompany his fastball/changeup, but if he developments more, he would remind me of a different Mets pitcher, Johan Santana. Either comparison is pie-in-the-sky, but his control is his most important talent and could carry him far.
I do believe you are short-changing Plawecki as he has constantly proven to be a great AVG bat to go along with strong plate discipline and nice slugging. I think this kid could make an All-Star game or two. Molina’s ceiling is dizzingly high, as is Herrera’s. Excellent viewpoints.
Syndergaard
Matz
Herrera
Conforto
M. Molina
Rosario
Plawecki
Nimmo
D. Smith
Akeel Morris
Brian, you and I don’t see eye to eye on much but this might be the best Mets list I have seen. I love that you have the testicular strength to put Montero in front of Syndergaard–something few do. I just covered Montero in a piece and said much of the same…he’s a victim of prospect fatigue, nothing else.
As far as future players, would like your thoughts on Champ Stuart. He, Ali Sanchez, and Michael Fulmer (for what seems like the 50th year in a row) are my breakout picks for 2015.
hi my name is sean and a die hard mets fan and they show some promise leading into 2015 spring training and beyond with Harvey wheeler colon etc etc
as the leadoff spot put murphy or lagares and wright in the clean up spot
from
sean eubanks
Thanks for the kind words.
We had a lot of discussion about Stuart when we did the 50-deep list. I was probably lower on him than anyone else. I understand what others see – my disagreement comes from the likelihood of him being able to realize it. I like Fulmer a lot but my concern is that he’s not going to be able to hack it as a starter. I see him doing what Robles did and transitioning to pen in advance of getting to the majors. Honestly don’t have much of an opinion at this point on Sanchez. Certainly I’m rooting for the system to develop a two-way catching prospect and hopefully he plays in the GULF or APPY this year so we can get a better read on him.
It’s not prospect fatigue. It’s the fact that one is ~6′ even and throws 92 while the other one is 6’6″ and throws 96. That’s being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian.