Mets360 Top 50 prospects: Players 2 & 1

By now everyone knows who these two players are. They represent both the highest rated prospect in the Mets system and one that looks to be a key part of the future success of the Mets. With prospects though, nothing is guaranteed, but how close these two are to the major leagues and their anticipated level of success is why they sit at numbers two and one. In case you missed any of the other installments, please check them out at: 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27. 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15, 14-11, 10-9, 8-7, 6-5 and 4-3. Next up is:

2 – Dilson Herrera

Herrera was signed as a 16 year old international free agent by the Pirates in 2010. Over the 2011 and 2012 seasons, Herrera played a total of 125 games in short season leagues and showed the reason why the Pirates signed him by posting an 800 plus OPS, to go along with 51 extra base hits and 28 stolen bases while playing both third base (not well) and second base (solidly well).

At 19, the Pirates promoted him to A-ball, where he was having a solid year against competition over two and a half years older than him. In 109 games with the Pirates West Virginia franchise, Herrera had a 751 OPS and 11 home runs, as well as progression defensively at second base. Although these numbers were down in general, they represented tantalizing potential from a player so young.

This upside obviously tempted Sandy Alderson enough to make Herrera the center piece in his 2013 waiver wire trade that sent Marlon Byrd and John Buck to the playoff bound Pirates for Herrera and a player to be named later (which turned out to be Vic Black). The Mets placed Herrera in Savannah to finish out the minor league season and he immediately appeared on top ten prospects lists for the club.

Herrera seemed very far away though, one of those trades that has the upside to become an absolute steal or just nets a few players that never really make a long term contribution. Herrera’s 2014 season, along with Black’s ascendance to becoming a key part of the Mets bullpen, has slotted this trade into an absolute win for the Mets.

Herrera started the year in St. Lucie, again playing against competition over two and a half years older than him, and more than held his own.  Herrera hit .307 with a 765 OPS in 67 games before earning a promotion to Binghamton mid-season.  In Binghamton, the toughest transition in the minor leagues, Herrera decimated the completion. Playing against opponents nearly five years older than him, Herrera hit .340 with a 967 OPS, both career high numbers. Herrera also mashed 10 home runs in 61 games, which equates to 25 home run power over the course of a full season. This power doesn’t seem like it would get to that point in the major leagues, but Herrera clearly showed that he could hit 15 to 20 home runs as an everyday player.

All of this led to a surprising turn of events. When Daniel Murphy had to go on the disabled list towards the end of August of 2014, the Mets, knowing they had to add Herrera to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, promoted Herrera to get a run as the team’s everyday second baseman.

As one of the youngest players in professional baseball, Herrera did fairly well. He initially showed jitters in the field, but eventually showed the range and strong arm that has minor leagues scouts saying he will eventually be a plus defensive second baseman at the major league level. He struck out at a 25% rate, but also walked at a 10% rate. He only hit .220, but that included a 187 ISO, a 710 OPS and three home runs in only 66 plate appearances. All in all, it was a promising debut and left Mets fans salivating about his potential and when they would again see him as the teams ever day second baseman.

So, let’s look at Herrera’s overall numbers in 2014. In 146 total games ranging from A+-ball, to Double-A to the major leagues, Herrera hit .312, slugged 16 home runs, scored 104 runs, knocked in 82 runs, walked at a solid 8% rate and stole 23 bases, all of this while posting a 160 ISO and a nearly 850 OPS. Those are numbers one can’t ignore. When you add in that he’s a middle infielder with the potential to be a plus defender who dominated Double-A and will only be turning 21 in March of 2015, the only result can be such a high prospect ranking, which was also reflected in the fact that MLB.com ranked him as one of the top 10 second base prospects in all of baseball.

Herrera isn’t the next coming of Robinson Cano, Chase Utley or Jeff Kent, but he could be the next Brandon Phillips and that’s a pretty good comp to get for a 21 year old. Herrera will start the season in Triple-A and if he continues his trend of dominating minor league competition, he will be the Mets everyday second baseman by seasons end, with six years of team control to follow.

1 – Noah Syndergaard

To no one’s surprise, Syndergaard tops our list. The other key prospect in the R.A. Dickey trade (along with Travis d’Arnaud), Syndergaard has been a well-regarded prospect since the Blue Jays drafted him out of high school in the supplemental round of the 2010 amateur draft.

After holding his own in the Gulf Coast League in 2010, Syndergaard ripped is way through the Appalachian League, Northwest League and the Midwest League (two starts) in 2011, striking out 68 batters in 59 innings while posting a 1.83 ERA and 1.085 WHIP. This dominance lead to Syndergaard being placed on two different top 100 prospects lists in all of Baseball.

He backed up this status during his first season of full year ball, posting a 2.60 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 122 strike outs in 103.2 innings. This jumped him onto all of the major prospect top 100 lists, the lowest ranking he received being placed at number 54 by Baseball America.

It also led the Mets to covet him as a part of the Dickey trade, which finally occurred after protracted negotiations, in December of 2012.

In 2013, Syndergaard pitched in both St. Lucie and Binghamton as a 20 year old and continued to show his potential.  Combined he posted a 3.06 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP, while striking out 133 batters in 117.2 innings. Although these were down numbers for him, they were impressive considering his age, lack of experience and the competition he was up against, which was on average nearly four years older than him. When 2014 began, Syndergaard was ranked as one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball. Mets fans were left to wonder just when he would make his debut in 2014.

That didn’t happen as Syndergaard had his first real struggles at the Triple-A level. Playing against competition nearly six years older than him in the pitcher un-friendly confines of Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League, Syndergaard saw his ERA balloon to 4.60, well above his numbers up to that point. His WHIP also jumped to 1.481 and he allowed 10.4 hits per nine innings. However, his strike out and walk rates remained virtually the same as they had throughout his entire minor league career and he still struck out 145 batters in 133 innings pitched. What these numbers mean is probably very little as Syndergaard finished the season ranked number 10 overall by MLB.com and as the third best right handed pitching prospect in all of Baseball. He’s also been coveted by every team looking to trade with the Mets and has been the key piece mentioned in the ongoing discussions (or non-discussions) about a trade for Troy Tulowitzki.

So what makes Syndergaard so highly regarded? Basically everything he brings. Syndergaard repeats his motion well, uses his whole body and doesn’t have a lot of kinks in his wind up. All of this means that when he develops the necessary arm strength, he should be able to throw a lot of inning’s, hold his velocity late into games and have a lot fewer risks for arm injuries. He also throws downhill, which induces a lot of ground balls to accompany his high strike out rates. Along with all of that, Syndergaard commands three plus pitches. The best is a high 90’s fastball with movement that ranks as a plus plus pitch by any scout who watches Syndergaard. The second is a nasty 12 to six curveball that he can spot for strikes. The third is a changeup, which has a nice velocity difference, but is still a work in progress. That’s not saying it’s a bad pitch. Syndergaard’s changeup is above average, it’s just not as good as his other pitches. Many pitchers who have this much upside don’t have the control to accompany it. Not Syndergaard. Syndergaard has exhibited plus control throughout his minor league career, impressive considering his stuff and age.

All of this adds up to a pitcher with ace potential, which is why he’s so coveted by other teams and has been basically taken off of the market by the Mets, although the persisting Tulowitzki whispers make one wonder if Syndergaard is only being considered in a trade for a talent like the Rockies shortstop.

Syndergaard is clearly the Mets best prospect in their system. He’s young, dominant, very close to his big league debut and has the best stuff in the entire system. If he develops as expected and stays a New York Met, he could help the Mets have the most dominating, young rotation Baseball has seen since the Braves had a young Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Greg Maddux pitching back to back to back. If he ends up being traded, it will only be for a player of the caliber of Tulowitzki. Either way, Syndergaard could be the key piece that makes the Mets not only a contender for many years to come, but bring a third potential championship to this beleaguered organization.

On one last note, let’s think about the lasting ramifications of the R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd trades. For two back up catchers (Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas), a 38 year old knuckleballer coming off of his best season (which he hasn’t been able to repeat) and a 35 year old outfielder that the Mets rescued off of the scrap heap, the organization obtained a top second base prospect, one of the top right handed pitching prospects in all of baseball, an intriguing low minors outfield prospect, a back of the bullpen, hard throwing right hander and the Mets catcher of the future. That’s a pretty hefty return and represents some of the best transactions in Mets history.