Mets360 Top 50 Prospects: Players 8 & 7

As we get closer to completing the Mets360 Top 50 Prospect list, some more familiar names are starting to show up. Some players in the Top 10 might appear in a Mets uniform sometime this year or next if all works out. Others still have some work to do. As do we, so let’s get started. In case you missed any of the other installments, check them out at: 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27. 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15, 14-11 and 10-9. Next up is:

Dominic Smith – 8
Smith came to the Mets with so much fanfare that he was nearly anointed the starting first baseman of the future without much doubt from any corner of the Mets fanbase. He may still be that type of player, but his first full season debut did nothing to calm the ever-jittery minds of Mets fans. Picked in the first round of the 2013 draft, Smith was all of 18 when he started swinging for Kingsport and the GCL Mets in rookie leagues. In a combined 51 games, he put up a .301/.398/.439 line with 17 extra-base hits, 26 RBI and 26 BBs to just 37 strikeouts. It made Mets fans salivate for the future, especially when considering the debacle at first the big club was dealing with.

But things change. Ike Davis was traded early in 2014, and Lucas Duda took over full-time duties, having himself a career year and showing the baseball world he wasn’t just holding the fort for someone younger. Smith, for his part, moved on to Savannah and had a heck of a time getting any kind of power production out of the notorious Grayson Stadium. For the season, he collected 28 extra-base hits, though hit just one home run all year. Over 126 games, he batted .271/.344/.338 and drove in 44 runners. His BB/K rate stayed nearly identical to his first year, so it was nice to see that the kid didn’t start hacking to compensate. His GO/AO did jump from 0.90 in 2013 to 1.96 in 2014, meaning he wasn’t regularly able to get any kind of lift off the ball. For reference sake, that’s right around what Jean Segura and Adam Eaton had for the season, and they had a combined six home runs in plenty of playing time.

None of this means that Smith is any less a prospect than he was last year. His average and OBP are still very nice to see from someone who was playing at age 19. The lefty is not huge either, standing around 6’ and weighed around 185 lbs, and his level approach simply does not lend itself to a power uppercut-style swing. He has a medium leg kick, and keeps his hands back fairly well. This all exhibits someone who’s more comfortable spreading the ball around the park, rather than swinging for the fences, and that’s a good thing. His spray chart proves that thoroughly, as he used the opposite field to drive a ton of singles, and the doubles he hit were all deep to center. He virtually ignored pulling the ball to right.

Considering this kid is still so young, 2014 should only be viewed as a success. Of course, having a lower SLG than OBP is not comforting, but on the whole Smith projects to be a very solid-to-high average hitter. And when he does finally start to pull the ball on occasion, he should have enough power to send it flying over the right field porch in whatever stadium he plays in. He’ll probably never hit 30 homers like Duda, but he probably won’t ever have to be a platoon artist, as he handled lefties in 2014 to a tune of .311, versus .255 against righties. This guy is still very much for real, but it will certainly take him another few years to put all the tools together. He might be the first baseman of the future, but he just might look a little different than what we expected.

Michael Conforto – 7
Over his tenure, Sandy Alderson has picked high school players with his first round selection much more than MLB league average. Conforto was one of those exceptions, and it was because he came with polish, as well as potential. Chosen in the first round of the 2014 draft out of Oregon State, Conforto was quickly sent to the Brooklyn Cyclones, and simply mashed. In 42 games, he hit .331/.403/.448 with 13 extra-base hits, scored 30 times and had a very nice 0.55 BB/K ratio, which was nearly identical to Curtis Granderson’s. However, while Granderson kept up a 21.6 K%, Conforto held a much more palpable 15.6%.

Conforto’s strength is his bat, and it’s driven by strong hip rotation and a simple approach. The biggest questions scouting reports had on him was that his lack of defense meant that he would be a left fielder from the get-go. His range seems the biggest question mark, but his arm appears accurate, if not very strong. This doesn’t seem like a big problem when considering organizational depth, and that’s most likely the reason Alderson chose him. Conforto will probably see at least one more full year in the minors, despite being a fairly good hitter already. He should start 2015 in Double-A. As fellow prospect Brandon Nimmo is the more accomplished fielder, and they are projected to be in the Mets outfield around the same time, it makes Conforto’s questionable defense much less of a risk. Add in that Juan Lagares should still be patrolling center field when either prospect comes up, and that Conforto could be a regular 25 homer guys, and whatever occasional blunder he might make out there will probably be overlooked.

There really aren’t too many negatives to expose about his game otherwise. Early reports claimed he might be at risk as a contact hitter, but his good K% and level swing seem to have put that to bed so far. He stole three bases last year and wasn’t caught once despite speed not being a part of his game. He isn’t being blocked by anyone ahead of him, and should receive every chance to progress as he proves his worth in the minors. Quite frankly, if the Mets didn’t have as many projectable pitchers ahead of him on most charts, he could probably be ranked higher already. For what it’s worth to you, MLB Pipeline does have him ranked as the fourth-best overall prospect in the Mets farm.

That being said, the Mets have no need to rush him. Two veterans are manning the corners right now, but could be trade bait in 2016 if either is having a solid year before July, and the youngsters are clearly ready to take over. More likely, 2017 will be the year Conforto makes his presence known. It might seem like a long wait right now, but if he keeps putting up solid offensive numbers, that patience might pay off big.