It seems like the Mets’ offseason is not over yet. No one should be surprised if they sign another starting pitcher candidate and they would do backflips if they could somehow shuttle a bullpen contract or two. But with all of the moves that they’ve made so far, it seems like a good time to come up with a roster for Opening Day. We’ll go with the assumption that there will be no designated hitter in the National League and that it will be a 26-man roster. While my preference would be to carry another hitter in the extra spot, it seems likely with 759 relievers hanging around that the extra man will end up in the pen.
Starters – Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi
The hope is that a James Paxton or Taijuan Walker is added to the mix. And there’s also the looming return of Noah Syndergaard. We’ve seen video of Syndergaard throwing already but it’s too optimistic at this point to project him for the Opening Day roster.
Relievers – Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Aaron Loup, Miguel Castro, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Jacob Barnes
The first five seem like locks and barring a miracle, the next two probably are, too. Barnes gets the last spot here due to being out of options. While Sandy Alderson has prioritized adding guys to the team with options remaining, one of Brodie Van Wagenen’s last moves for the team was picking up Barnes.
Catchers – James McCann, Tomas Nido
This seems like the easiest group to assemble, so perhaps to mess with us, this is what the last move the team makes will address. Ideally, your backup catcher with McCann would be a lefty hitter. But the Mets have a ton of lefties in the lineup already. And while it’s 99.9% likely to be a small sample fluke, it’s fun to point to Nido’s 152 OPS+ in 2020.
Infield – Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Francisco Lindor, Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme
It’s tough to say which one was more fun – writing in Lindor’s name or not writing in Robinson Cano. The rumor mill is heating up about the Mets trading for a third baseman but it just seems like it’s destined to be Davis. Perhaps the biggest question among the position players is who gets the last infield slot. Usually, the team carries a backup first baseman who’s not starting in left field. Jose Martinez could very well be the choice here over Guillorme, as he would be a RHB off the bench, too.
However, one of the things that kills me about the Mets is how they always choose a guy who was good on another team three years ago – but who isn’t good now – over a homegrown product. Martinez was really good in 2017, when he put up an .897 OPS. But in the years since, his OPS has gone from .821 to .751 to .561 last year. And he’ll turn 33 in July. My hope is that Martinez, who is on a split contract, goes to Syracuse to start the year, rakes and forces his way to a promotion.
Outfield – Dominic Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Albert Almora Jr., Guillermo Heredia
Everyone always forgets about Heredia, who the Mets tendered a contract to in the offseason. Sure, they tendered Robert Gsellman, too. But that was more about the flexibility Gsellman offered as a potential starting pitcher depth piece. FanGraphs has Heredia with an option remaining, which certainly could factor into play here. But the recent trade acquiring Khalil Lee seems to complete the Syracuse outfield, as he’ll join Mallex Smith and Johneshwy Fargas.
One could argue that Almora makes Heredia redundant and that Martinez’ power potential is more useful than Heredia’s ability to play center field. But Heredia did hit 2 HR in 18 PA for the Mets last year – so it’s not like he’s Jason Tyner out there – and he bats from the right side, too. Martinez seems like a stretch to carry as a reserve 1B (-3 DRS, -2.8 UZR in 970.1 innings lifetime) but he’s absolutely dreadful in the OF, where in 1,199.1 innings – 1,200 is considered a full season – he has a (-24) DRS. That’s Lucas Duda-level bad. Martinez didn’t play the outfield at all in 2020 and it seems unlikely he’s gotten better in the interim.
I have Martinez over Heredia but your argument against it is cogent.
I’m intrigued about some of the potential changes we could still see before the season begins and how they would change the team. Namely, Kris Bryant or Matt Chapman.
Near salivating over the idea of a chapman / lindor left side. Assuming that wouls cost us Mauricio (ok I guess if we extend lindor) or Alvarez (4 yrs away probably).
Heredia and Martinez’s spots are very iffy given that Alderson seems to still be very active and intent on finding some more wins to close the gap/overtake the Braves “on paper” (ignoring PECOTA of course). Martinez has pop but his knees are an issue, and he could make Dom Smith look like an OF golden glover and PEte a 1B golden glover.
Even if Syndergaard was 100% on April 1 there is no way I see the Mets starting him in the bigs until June-ish. With the current plan, they’ll need him pitching high stress innings in Oct, so they’ll need to reserve some innings for late year.
Chapman sounds more like a pipe dream given potential cost. Beane would likely require JD Davis, Baty, Mauricio and Allan. The 3B upgrades sound enticing but each one has major drawbacks. We may need to settle for the Toddfather as a JD insurance policy and spend a little bit on another starter and reliever.
I dont think Chapman is going anywhere because the A’s traded Sheldon Neuse. And please, no more Toddfather. We have to move forward.
If I have to hear “Fly Me To The Moon” one more time, I’ll wretch (I mute the computer)… a pox on anyone who mentions Todd Frazier again… starting… now.
Stop obsessing over third base. Platoon Davis and Guillorme and be happy… better offensive numbers than almost every other team at 3B…
Also, stop obsessing over the bullpen. Sure, dump Familia and Betances if possible, but the pen is sooooo much better… definitely add Wilson.
In general, the Mets are about 20% better this year than last… and that’s a lot.
Good starting pitching, trending upward with Thor.
Very decent bullpen.
Strong, more balanced lineup with Lindor in the mix.
Better defensively than before… essentially average overall.
Solid bench.
Stronger on the farm than a year ago… don’t trade Mauricio.
Prediction: Mets primed to win 90 + games. Need DeGrom healthy and Diaz to do his thing…
Wobbit,
I can only speak for myself, but I’m not obsessing over 3B or the Met roster in general. Just today, the Mets asst GM said they aren’t done and look to add pitching. So, they may be obsessing a bit as to how the Mets stack up against the Braves, as well as the Dodgers and Padres. Scott also said they like JD Davis at 3B. There are some other free agent 3B out there, but music and name aside, adding some 3B/bench with good defense and a little RH pop at low cost wouldn’t be the worst move.
It’s probably my perennial bias towards current roster players but I’m not sold on Bryant. At all. No doubt he’d be an (temporary?) upgrade but I would like to see a Davis/Guillorme platoon and keep the pieces the Mets would have to give up to get Bryant. Also I recall reading the Bryant and his father(!) were major reasons why Chili Davis was canned in Chicago. If that’s true, who needs that kind of drama? It seems that Davis has done pretty well with the young Mets hitters and I’d hate to see that get tarnished. FWIW I’m really happy that Bauer went elsewhere. He brings a certain kind of Anna Benson / Curt Schilling/ Aubrey Huff energy that is loathsome. I’d like them to bring Wilson back and then that’s the roster. Another aspect that I think is overlooked is that the players who have been criticized for poor defense all seem to be the type who will out in the work to get better. No you think that Nimmo is content to be a below average CF? Ditto Davis at 3b or Dom in LF. As I recall Alonso and McNeil were both considered weak gloves coming up but they put in the work and are passable. I like the core of position players now, esp with Lindor and think this is a team that can win. Now.
Bull, I truly hope that the three guys you named put in the work to improve. I know Davis has and Alonso said he will, but what about Smith? I don’t understand why people don’t have a little patience in a player and want to always get rid of guys that we see have talent but have a small weakness. Did they not get their brains knocked in enough by Daniel Murphy, or was that too long ago? Give guys a chance to improve. Tony Gwynn sucks as a fielder, so did Schmidt, so did Brett, so did Jeter. Give a player a chance…
I don’t know anything more than anyone else here, but Davis, Nimmo, and Smith all strike me as the type of guys who will do whatever they can do to improve. Another factor is the team aspect. These three appear to be great teammates and are central to the culture that this young team is building. Anyone who has played on a team knows that the pressure to “not let your team down” is immense and IMHO, that is a major motivation. It’s almost time to find out! I don’t recall a spring training I’ve anxiously anticipated more.
The Mets should upgrade Lucchesi and Odorizzi should be considered also. There is room for another quality arm the bullpen. Betances and Barnes are a concern. Almora, Heredia and Martinez are 5th outfielders and it would be desirable to obtain a better 4th outfielder that could start because of an injury. Other than Martinez over Heredia because of power, this roster looks right. Right now the thin starting pitching and poor defense in three positions are holding them back to be the odds on favorite in the division.
Metsense, if Davis, Smith, and Nimmo all improve from, say the bottom 20% to the middle 20%, what would you say? IMHO baseball defense is much like basketball defense. It’s more about wanting to get it done and in putting in the hours of practice. Natural phenoms are the exception. The prior Mets experiments with players out of position, namely Murphy and Duda, were missing the key ingredient of the players’ desire. My two cents.
Nimmo and Smith are playing out of position and Davis’ best position is 1B. The Mets are still playing these players out of position this because of necessity. If the trio hit like they are expected and Almora and Guillorme are utilized as late inning replacements then defensive problems can be somewhat be masked. Ideally players should be put in the best position to succeed. This trio get a deduction when it comes to WAR because they’re playing out of position through fault of their own. It is a GM responsibility to correct the situation, which is easier said than done. I like all three players. They are hard working and personable players but a equitable trade that improves the team is better for everyone concerned.
Agree that these guys are easy to root for, they’ve been good team players and publicly handled playing out of position well. I also agree that they certainly can improve and deserve a chance to show it. Davis has a gun and has pitched successfully in the majors. Some intense work on positioning, lateral movement, and quick release can show good returns. He certainly has the arm for the hot corner. Dom is not a LF but literally had to learn in the bigs with all of us watching. His metrics were still bad but he showed big improvement, and no reason why he can’t be serviceable for a year in left if these knuckleheads don’t get universal DH done in 2021. Nimmo is probably the biggest concern given his arm and tracking limitations, but I’ll take him 70% of time for 2021 if the DH doesn’t happen. He should offset with his elite offensive skills, and he should be replaced by Almora late when leading.
Like others, I’d prefer Davis/Guillorme to a Bryant rental, and the point that he and Chili had issues should cement it. Turner would be welcome but his price/years likely doesn’t make sense for Mets. Chapman, wow, he’s the “Arenado” nobody knows. Adding him and a bit more pitching would put the Mets in the World Series conversation…but that price…what would Beane need to get to justify that deal?
Considering all aspects, including offense, defense, team “fit,” expense, and being a known quantity, I like this trio where they are. IMHO, there’s a special culture with this version of our Mets and I think it’s important not only to preserve it but to nurture it.
I admit that I have zero data to back up my assertion and frankly don’t have a good sense of how I would go about making a fact-based case for my argument. That said, I think that this article is compelling and I don’t see why one or more of these guys wouldn’t make this list of most-improved defenders for 2021. https://www.mlb.com/news/most-improved-defensive-players-2019
I agree with letting Davis and Guillorme play 3rd base this year. Let’s see what we have before we send it away for a one-year rental along with a stud prospect. One thing I’ve noticed over the years with Mets fans is a distinct impatience with letting the kids settle down and mature for a few years. It’s a big jump from the minors to the majors. Since so much depends on confidence, fans should fully support the kids while they are figuring it out. I think that’s what it means to be a fan.
I’m really glad I found this site… the fans and their comments are well-thought and a pleasure to share with. I want to project here a little, which is what I do:
There are seismic changes in MLB, somewhat a result of the pandemic but also the natural pendulum swing. The gigantic, over-paid contract era is over. Teams not able to count on revenue will naturally become reluctant to weigh themselves down. Betts, Harper, Machado, Cole will payoff for three years but become an albatross too quickly and at too great a cost. The shorter-term deal is the wave of the next decade of more. Pay generously, but for only a few years. Oh, some teams may be slow to catch on, which will extend the transition. But the smart teams will make a lucrative offer to nail down whom they need, and the smart players will accept being very very rich instead of waiting (and risking) to become stupid rich. In essence, BillyBall is always worth integrating.
So I propose sticking close to what we have… add Odorizzo, for sure, and wait for injuries and ineffectiveness (Stroman?) to settle the rotation. Let the infield congeal around Lindor (it will never be great as is, but might be good enough). Give the players mentioned (Smith, Nimmo, Alonso, McNeil) the confidence to improve. I think Almora is good enough to secure CF defense. McCann should be miles above Ramos, which will mean a lot.
Thanks Wobbit – I’m very proud and protective of the comment section.
Hey Wobbit, I concur. I also found this site about five years ago and have valued it for the reasons you mentioned. There’s a game chat that is really fun too. I live far from NY and have no Mets fans around me, so watching the game on MLB-TV while chatting with this group is a fine evening. Also, FWIW, even though I’ve been a Mets360 fan for about 5 years or so, I still feel like a newbie here and that’s deserved. There are a handful of folks who are the true regulars.
Brian does an amazing job of curating this and I have great respect for how he values quality over quantity, which probably costs him some money too. This is the site for real Mets fans.
I 100% agree with your shoutout to Brian and this site. Top notch.
Aging Bull, do you remember Brooks Robinson the great third baseman for the Orioles dynasty in the late 60s-early 70s. He became a legend for his defensive prowess. In an article I read long ago he talked about how he wasn’t that great at defense, but wanting to stick in the majors, he worked long and tirelessly to improve his defense. That’s the kind of dedication you’re talking about.
Exactly! Some players are blessed with natural, elite capabilities but the ones who put in the work are the ones that shine. Even the elite defenders put in their reps. Willie Mays shagged thousands (hundreds of thousands? millions?) of balls. Ozzie Smith took as many practice grounders. The question becomes which of of these guys have that dedication? I’m in the camp that all three have it.
We will soon see!
Brian, I think you have pretty much nailed it with the crew they have.
My wildcard pick to make the squad, either at the fifth starter or in long relief is Sam McWilliams.
This looks like a pretty good club. I would be more comfortable with a better 5th outfielder than Heredia, and we’ll see about the back-up catcher.
McWilliams is probably the guy I’m most interested to see in Grapefruit League action.
yes, me too. . something about that signing and the stuff I have read has me very intrigued.
So if Kilome has no MiLB options left, what happens to him? DFA? Another trade for a minor piece/mid prospect?
The other guy that I thought would be give a little more of a shot is Peraza. He seems to be a plus defender at second, and is probably a better shortstop than Villar. He is not on the 40 man, so I suspect he will get the same or less opporunity than Eduardo Nunez did last year.
I can’t believe Zamora is still on the 40 man. He isn’t even a consideration…
Based on what I’ve seen of Villar, he is mostly a 2B, starting 30 games this season if McNeil stays healthy. He’s a great base-stealer, though I’m not sure Rojas will use him that way. He will no doubt be a major PH, too. He may win a game or two with his legs alone and with the occasional pop in his bat, and he’s the kind of guy who can get red hot, which will not sustain for long. But he will extend innings in the field, and you can never truly relax on even the routine plays. Still, I’m gonna enjoy his talents and hope for the best.
I’m super relived that Arieta is off the table… really did not want that guy..just hard to root for… and Rich Hill gone too. Still want Odorizzi or Tajuan for depth, but not a must. I really liked Kilome and E. Ramirez last year.
Looks like we got our first injury. Lugo is having bone spur surgery on his elbow. You can never have enough pitching. That’s a true statement. Need to keep looking for the bullpen. Still hope we get Walker, Ryan maybe we use Luchessi in the pen.
The good news is that this is not season-ending surgery. If everything goes well it looks like he’ll be back end of April or beginning of May.
It’s shaping up nicely. If there’s a smart trade to be made, Sandy should go for it. If not, I would focus on scooping up some more depth pieces for Syracuse. Need a #3 catcher for sure and really need to stockpile arms, especially with the news of Lugo likely to miss the first month of the season.