The 2021 Mets: did PECOTA get it right?

We are — cautiously – on the doorstep of spring training 2021. The qualifier is used because we are all still subject to the whims and fancies of COVID-19. The equipment trucks have headed South, sure, and there is a schedule out for all kinds of games, but the pandemic still has the final say. It’s still an iffy proposition that 162 games will be played, let alone a spring schedule. For us Mets fans, it would be especially galling to not play the full slate, seeing as they head into to 2021 season as a clear favorite to reach the post-season, if not win the NL East with ease – if the PECOTA projection system is to be believed. PECOTA, the proprietary prognosticator for Baseball Prospectus, projects the Mets to win the division by 10 games. Of course, the games aren’t played on paper and Ken Burns doesn’t make documentaries about great simulated players, so this needs to be taken with a boulder-sized measure of salt. But we Mets fans are so starved for good news, that there is a substantial temptation to take that projection and run with it. In any case, it does bring a smile to the face in this snowy February.

So what have the Mets got that makes this PECOTA fellow so sanguine? Barring any last-minute blockbusters – we’ll leave the possibility of acquiring Kris Bryant or Matt Chapman to the more seasoned speculators — let’s take a look at what the 25- or 26-man roster might look like come April 1. It’s looking like a very remote possibility that the universal DH will be reinstated, so this analysis will assume the traditional National League team structure, as well as allowing for the hopefulness of Noah Syndergaard returning by July 4.

C James McCann
1B Pete Alonso
2B Jeff McNeil
SS Francisco Lindor
3B J.D. Davis
LF Dominic Smith
CF Brandon Nimmo
RF Michael Conforto

OF Albert Almora
INF Brandon Drury
INF Luis Guillorme
1B/OF Jose Martinez
C Tomas Nido
INF Jonathan Villar

SP Jacob deGrom
SP Carlos Carrasco
SP Marcus Stroman
SP David Peterson
SP Joey Lucchesi/Noah Syndergaard

CL Edwin Diaz
RP Dellin Betances
RP Jeurys Familia
RP Robert Gsellman
RP Aaron Loup
RP Seth Lugo
RP Trevor May

At this juncture, it looks like a solid team, one which absolutely should contend for a division title, but not anything like PECOTA is crowing about. Perhaps some thumbnail sketches might illuminate.

In what would presumably be this roster’s pecking order:

Jacob deGrom – the key to the whole operation. deGrom needs to stay healthy and needs to live up to his own lofty standards. The odds and the projections say he will, who am I to argue?

Francisco Lindor – the prize of the off-season, Trevor Bauer notwithstanding. Lindor is the top shortstop around and a terrific ambassador for whatever team he finds himself on and for the game itself. If his performance is average for him, that means an All-Star appearance, a Gold Glove and a ton of goodwill.

Edwin Diaz – the hinge. If he is on, if he is the Diaz of 2018, if he can be trusted, then so can PECOTA. If he repeats his 2019, the Mets are in big trouble. This one can go either way.

Pete Alonso – looking for a bounce-back, big time. Granted, 2020 is nobody’s idea of a fair sample size, but Alonso’s OPS+ fell off 24 points from 2019 to 2020. Alonso needs to get ‘em back.

Michael Conforto – the quiet engine. Conforto puts up consistently great numbers year after year, when healthy, and somehow, playing in New York, he is underrated. The worry is that his contract status – he is due to hit the free agent market after this year – might prove enough of a distraction to throw him off stride.

Carlos Carrasco – get the man on the mound. Carrasco’s good years come when he makes 30 starts. If he can stay healthy enough to make that many, things will be good all around. If Luis Rojas tries to make him a swingman, there will be issues.

Marcus Stroman – needs to be “Mr. Consistency.” Stroman has a world of talent, but so far hasn’t been able to harness it on a regular basis. He didn’t throw a single pitch last year, so we don’t know if that will actually happen or not: the jury is still out.

Jeff McNeil – actually is “Mr. Consistency.” McNeil has been in the League for three years. His OPS+ numbers: 138, 141, 131. And now, he will have a regular position. There is not a worry here.

J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Dom Smith and the bench – They need to be ready. No team gets through 162 completely unscathed. There will be injuries. There will be slumps. These guys will need to step up at points and how they perform may go a long way to determining whether or not this team sinks or swims.

The rest of the bullpen – regain what you once had. Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia and Seth Lugo were all stellar once. If they can be again, a perceived weakness can easily turn out a strength. The additions of Trevor May and Aaron Loup will go a long way to buttressing this squad, but the bulk of the responsibility will rest on those erstwhile stars.

The back of the rotation – Can David Peterson repeat his 2020 performance? Will Joey Lucchesi thrive under the bright lights? Maybe most importantly: will Noah Syndergaard come back strong? In other years, these questions would be right at the top of the Mets’ offseason concerns. The fact that they are at the bottom of the list just might mean that PECOTA may be onto something.

Now, let’s make sure they actually get to play.