There are many factors to consider when determining what type of contract to offer a free agent player. And certainly, different teams can assign different weights to each factor. Many teams were scared off by the age and health of Rich Hill. But the Rays felt like the way they manage the workloads of their starters, along with the depth of young pitching in their organization to call upon to cover any IL stints, made Hill a bargain at $2.5 million for one year.
And we have to look at it from the player’s point of view, too. For Hill, who Baseball-Reference has making over $60 million in his career, perhaps this contract was more about being on a team with a chance to win it all, rather than maximizing salary. Perhaps after spending the last five years on the West Coast, he prioritized being on the East Coast. Or maybe he just hit it off with the people he met from the Rays’ organization.
You never know how the people aspect of things influences decisions. The following was told to me by a guy with both MLB and Chicago connections, a guy not known for blowing smoke. He told me that Robin Ventura ended up on the Mets because Albert Belle, a teammate the previous two seasons with the White Sox, and also a free agent, signed with the Orioles. Their signings were very close together – B-R has them both signing on December 1 – and there’s also this from CBS Sports:
The Mets outbid the Baltimore Orioles for free-agent third baseman Robin Ventura on Tuesday and also sent Todd Hundley and a minor-league pitcher to Los Angeles for catcher Charles Johnson and outfielder Roger Cedeno.
So, trying to weigh all of the factors and looking at it from both sides, it’s hard to justify the Mets willing to go $35 million or so on a multi-year deal for Trevor Bauer but not willing to top $8.5 million and incentives for James Paxton.
Bauer is younger, healthier and more productive than Paxton. No one should question why he should make significantly more money. It’s just hard to fathom why the Mets wouldn’t offer Paxton the guaranteed money that he needs to reach with incentives with Seattle. Or even more.
Paxton has never reached 30 starts in a season. From 2016-2019, he made between 20-29 starts each year. But even while missing at least three starts a season, Paxton never finished with a fWAR lower than 3.5, the mark he posted with the Yankees in 2019 when he went 15-6.
Obviously, we don’t have access to either the workout that Paxton underwent to show potential suitors or his medicals. Reports from the workout were positive, with reports that he was throwing a 94-mph fastball. Perhaps the Mets were not as thrilled with his medical reports as the Mariners. It’s just difficult to imagine the medicals being horrible if a team was willing to guarantee that much money.
Reports were that the Mets offered slightly more money than the Dodgers for Bauer but the native of southern California chose to go close to home. And maybe the same type of thing is going on here. Paxton was born in British Columbia and was drafted and made his debut with the Mariners. Maybe it’s John Olerud all over again. Olerud had three terrific seasons with the Mets but when he was a free agent, the Washington native opted to sign with the Mariners.
If this came down to personal preference for Paxton, no one should begrudge him picking the Mariners. But if it was a money thing – like the vast majority of free agent signings are – then it’ll be disappointing that the Mets didn’t beat the Mariners’ offer. All offseason we’ve heard about depth and flexibility. With, among others, Joey Lucchesi, Sam McWilliams and Noah Syndergaard around to offer options for an IL stint, the Mets seemed particularly well-positioned to handle Paxton making 25 starts rather than 32.
So, now it seems like the Mets are down to two big-name candidates in the starting pitching market. There’s Jake Odorizzi, who had his own injury issues in 2020, and Taijuan Walker. The Mets have been linked to Odorizzi on and off throughout the offseason but there seemingly hasn’t been more than moderate buzz on him until this point. That’s still more than has been the case with Walker, who last year was finally healthy and is also the youngest of any of the pitchers mentioned above.
It will be curious to see what type of contracts Odorizzi and Walker get, especially compared to Paxton. It would be nice to see the Mets grab one of these two. But at this point in the offseason, Paxton would have been my first choice if the doctors signed off on his medicals.
As Met fans, we are used to watching free agents that can fill needs/strengthen the roster come off the board, finding homes elsewhere. While the have clearly improved, and landing Lindor/Carrasco was huge, so far the trend has continued even with the wealthy new owner. Perhaps they are mulling over the cost of a significant trade. At this point, the only conclusion I can make is that they are aiming for a starter that is more of a certainty than any of those that have recently signed. Or, at least, that is what I am hoping.
Signing Paxton seemed to make sense for the Mets, but as you say, maybe he just wanted to be closer to home (even if he took a somewhat lower offer).
I would be OK with the Mets signing either Odorizzi or Walker.
Odorizzi will be 31 soon and had a very good 2019 (129ERA+; 3.36 FIP; 3.36 SO/BB; 3.6 WAR). In 2020, his injuries were not arm related (blister; hit in chest by line drive; sore back). My guess is that the Mets will sign him for 3 years/$42 million, with the past connection to Jeremy Hefner a key factor.
Walker (age 28) would come for less money, but he would be my 2nd choice. His 2020 was good, but his FIP was 4.56 in 11 starts (with an ERA of 2.70!). His SO/BB was 2.63.
Walker might come for 3 years/$33 million.
My thoughts exactly Steve S. about Odorizzi or Walker. Maybe another reliever also. Brett Gardner or Nick Markakis or Josh Reddick would be a nice 4th outfielder for the bench.
Better yet, the Mets signed Kevin Pillar as their 4th outfielder. He can start against lefthanded pitcher (aprox. 36 games) resting Nimmo, Conforto and Smith for 12 games each. He will be the late inning defensive replacement when this is not starting. Great insurance in case a injury. Another good signing.
Too many near misses and missed opportunities in signing free agents so far, and as we get near the start of spring training, options are dwindling. I’m referencing more to getting help for the bullpen then not getting Bauer or Springer. Perhaps the front office is working on a deal (or deals) to finish up filling in needs and (maybe) shedding some salary/baggage.
I’m glad that they didn’t sign Turner, and I hope they don’t go for Bryant. Chapman? …..maybe. I am puzzled though that they haven’t signed Wilson, and that the Yankees (!) will probably get him.
And would Bradley really be a worthwhile signing for the Mets?
Wilson perplexes me too. The guy was solid. How much could he cost?
Shreve and Ramirez also pitched well…
I’m ok losing Paxton… I could see stretches on the IL, then not ready to contribute much…
Either Odorizzi or Walker looks good to me… we’re looking for 10 wins from either SP.
Justin Turner… too expensive. JDDavis is still improving for 20% the salary.
Bryant? Would cost JD, maybe Dom, and a kid or two… not worth it. Save money.
Chapman? Better than Bryant, cause I love “d”. But let’s develop our own… Luis G !!!
On the catching front… I really liked Chirinos… active and some good pop in the barrel… we need a backup for Nido.
I vote no on JBJ… we’re covered… I like saving money for real needs.
Would any of you have been willing to go 8.5 million or somewhat higher for Paxton with incentives that could have brought it to $10+mil? Apparently, that’s what Seattle paid.
My feeling is that Paxton really liked playing in Seattle and wanted to go back. Just like Bauer wanted to go to LA.
Time is starting to run out on the starter options. Hopefully they sign one of them this week and dont get “outbid”.
Walker is the right upside play here. They ve built nice depth with Yamamoto, luchessi, Montgomery, eickhoff etc. Walker is only 28 and may be ready to “find” it on a staff with real pros like Degrom and Carrasco. 3 yr deal for 35-38 milljon. And Rosenthal 2 yrs 20 mil. Theb we re done.
Spotrac.com is a real cool website, and it gives you plenty of financial information of all sorts. So, I checked and saw: “Dodgers still have their foot on the gas pedal, despite shattering through the tax ceiling,” and you know I had to find out what this was about. The Dodgers Tax AAV including the $19MM hit for going over the tax is going to be $275MM.
The Mets aren’t ready to go over, but they only have $23MM left of room. How do you sign a starter, another reliever, and have some room left over to add in July? Very tough.
The Mets getting “outbid” on Paxton tells me they are looking somewhere else. There were tweets from sportswriters two days ago that “the Mets are working on something big” but as I scan the teams that they match with, what would that be? Cincinnati is one, maybe St. Louis, Oakland, or maybe Tampa? All of those teams have tons of pitching and excess in the outfield. If I squint, I can see a match in St. Louis involving Bader, Carpenter and a starting pitcher for Familia and Smith.
I saw Jacob Barnes’ stats, you know, the last signing Brodie made. What was he thinking? This 30 year old… kind of sucks. And yet, they kept him and cut Brach? Are you not allowed to cut a free agent you just signed? It might be bad form…
Gus, Barnes was signed as a waiver claim not a free agent according to BR. Brodie made the decision on Barnes and a few days later he passed on Hand who was on waivers with his $10M price commitment that Alderson has said he would have taken Hand. Apparently Alderson didn’t know about Barnes either. Of course it was a typical signing for Brodie because Barnes doesn’t have options either.
When is enough enough? Just using simple math, the Mets have Degrom, Carrasco, Stroman, Peterson, Lucchesi, Yamamoto, McWilliams, (and eventually Syndergaard).
My god, how are we gonna give these guys enough innings to establish any rhythm?
The goal is not names on a whiteboard or past performances, but the next performance.
Aren’t we full enough of potential big-league talent to just go with it?
Start the season, establish the rotation, let it wind its way toward some regularity, see who gets footing and who struggles, make adjustments, await injuries and other irregularities, and when all else fails, look for more talent. But by all means, close the book on the speculation and let the athletes determine what happens next… its February and the Mets have a competitive roster. This will be the best Mets team in quite some time.
When Joey Lucchesi’s my fifth starter and I have a chance to upgrade to James Paxton for about $10 million – I do that 100 times out of 100. And I don’t mean to be harsh but Luchessi, Yamomoto and McWilliams (LYM) are not guys you worry about finding innings for. Those are good guys to have if you need to fill innings – excellent depth pieces.
I want LYM to give the Mets the 24 starts that Oswalt, Lugo, Harvey, Conlon, Gagnon, Flexen and Blevins gave the 2018 Mets but do better than the 114.2 IP and the 5.73 ERA those seven guys gave the club. And actually, I hope the majority of the starts that don’t go the five main guys end up going to Syndergaard.
Wobbit,
They say you can never have enough pitching for a reason. So long as there are upgrades for any of the 40 man spots, and upgrades that do not require excessive cost commitments or parting with assets, a big market team should be in pursuit. Alderson and company can still make reasonable improvements, and they should.
Same goes for the outfield. We have Conforto, Nimmo, Almora, Smith, Martinez, Heredia, and even McNeil, Villar and Davis in a pinch. OK, barely adequate defense but probably good enough. If we need yet another body, I say call up Khalil and let him steal bases and run down fly balls in the gaps in the late innings… Use the guys we have and stop looking over the rainbow for help we might not need.
Wobbit, Martinez is not an outfielder; Almora is a long shot brought about by the need to find a defensive center fielder; Villar and Davis are infielders that have played the outfield in the past. Only Almora would I like to see play the outfield this year, probably ever. To Aging Bull’s point, the hope is Davis works on his third base play so much that he becomes credible there and doesn’t move.
While Khalil Lee can fly, he doesn’t get quick reads in center field and is expected to go to right field due to his strong arm. Seems he gets by on his speed in CF, not his instincts.
On the pitching you referenced above, as long as Scott feels “you can never have enough pitching”, he won’t stop signing them.
Brian, Not that I would object to having James Paxton, but I want to point out that Lucchesi’s numbers are comparable where I value them, hits to innings pitched… both pitched well. Paxton did have three nice seasons and anything close to those would have been a boon to the Mets’ staff, but that does not preclude Lucchesi, already in the fold, from making a strong contribution if he gets to pitch steadily at the back end of the rotation. I think he could.
Since Paxton is gone (and one is left wondering why the “wealthy Mets” did not outbid the small market Mariners), I’m suggesting that starter #5 might be covered adequately.
Gus, I seem to be the only guy that thought JDDavis played LF adequately, certainly better than Dom Smith, but I guess he wants to play only 3B. I’ve seen Martinez in RF for the Cardinals, so I’m surmising that he can play LF for the Mets, in limited outings. Regarding Almora, I’ve read reports that he is an excellent CFer… not sure what to believe until we see him, I guess. Regarding Khalil Lee, we have a vested interest into making him better at whatever OF he plays. We need his speed on the bases, especially in late innings of close games, and we need the versatility of using him to upgrade late-inning OF defense. If it were me, I’d wear out my fungo bat until he got better and more instinctual.
Thanks for the good dialogue… makes the pandemic more bearable.