The 2022 season is really humming along, isn’t it? The Mets are 21 games over .500, in first place in the NL East and, according to Fangraphs, have a 98.9% chance to make the playoffs. Baseball-Reference.com is less sanguine, putting their odds at 98.4%. As has been exhaustively chronicled, the Mets faced down their daunting June schedule and came out ahead. Barely, but ahead, nonetheless. They needed to play .500 baseball against the likes of the Dodgers, Astros, Padres, and Brewers and that is exactly what happened: a win vs. lowly Washington on the first day of the month was the difference between a winning and losing record. As this Mets team has shown all year, they will do what they have to do. That will likely come into play again, as the season moves through the All-Star break and into the cauldron of August.
Very few things in baseball are ever decided around the Fourth of July, and as we are all painfully aware, a lot can happen between now and October, but the Mets have spent a total of one day out of first place this year. Again, at this point in the year, that doesn’t mean much – look no further than last year – but 2022 is a different animal. For example, on this date last year, the Mets were 48-40, had recently received the devastating news about Jacob deGrom’s shoulder injury and had a lackluster split of a four-game series at home vs. Pittsburgh heading into the break. Five days later, they visited the Pirates and dropped the first two games, the second one on a terrible walk-off grand slam by Jacob Stallings. After that, they spun to a 29-43 clip and had their doors blown off by Atlanta and Philadelphia. This year, with the addition of an experienced, proven-successful manager, as well as five veteran, well-compensated professionals, it’s tough to see a similar fate, but anything is possible. For one thing, while the Mets are six-and-a-half games ahead of their 2021 selves, the Braves are nine-and-a-half games better and only two-and-a-half games back, at 51-35. And guess where the Mets head this week…
It’s a bit of a tricky time, right now. For the past two weeks or so, the Mets have shown some signs of wear. They could accomplish nothing in four games vs. Houston. There’s no shame in that, as most of the American League has yet to figure them out. But, after that, they have seemed to have to work awfully hard to take series from mediocre teams like Texas and Cincinnati. Their offense has largely disappeared, especially when facing unfamiliar starting pitchers. These three games coming up in Atlanta will be the 2022 Mets’ sternest test yet. The Braves seem to have forgotten how to lose, whittling down what had been a 10.5 game lead to the uncomfortable feeling of their breath on the Mets’ collective neck. A series win would be a tremendous morale boost for the team and the fan base alike. A sweep at their hands, however, would mean the surrender of that lead for the first time since April 11. Max Scherzer will pitch game one, which gives one hope that that danger can be averted. Atlanta hasn’t named a game one starter and Mets manager Buck Showalter hasn’t revealed his rotation for the rest of the week, either, but you’d have to think David Peterson, Chris Bassitt, and Trevor Williams – in some combination thereof – would get the call. This will be followed by a potential “trap” series at home against the struggling Chicago Cubs. The danger here is that there could be a collective let-down, facing a sub-.500 team after a high-stakes series on the road, and heading into the break. It would be good to avoid a lead-in similar to 2021’s.
After the break, they jump right into the fire, with series against a hot San Diego Padres team at home and the first Subway Series leg against the all-conquering you-know-whos. Then, it’s three division series in a row against Miami, Washington, and a huge four-game set at Citi Field vs. the Braves the first week in August. At some point in the middle of all this, deGrom will return to, hopefully, give the rotation a big boost. Will he be the Jake we know and love?
Unless something dramatic happens on the trade front, he’ll have to be.
The only NL team that the Mets lost a series was the Padres. Every post game interview by the players mentioned ” winning the series”. This is a team’s mindset that was influenced by Showalter and embraced by his players.
The Mets are still winning and have a 1.5 game lead over the Braves. Going to this Braves series, the Braves have the momentum while the Mets offense is sputtering. I hope the Mets will again win this series but my expectations are winning only one game. I see this series more of a barometer then a test.