Happy Thanksgiving!  There are three Thursday games to watch today while gouging on turkey so enjoy one of the best days of the year.  My picks went 7-5-2 last week, bringing my season total to 33-28-4.  Last week’s picks were made in time for the Thursday night game and that was a win.  However, my dismal luck with the Sunday and Monday night games continued.  Another 0-2 showing in those night games brings my record to 1-9 in those games.  Guess I’m just going to pick the team I want to lose to win from now on in those games.

Odds taken from yahoo!sportsbook with home team in bold.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Detroit (+9.5) over Buffalo – Not sure how many weeks in a row my pick has been against the Lions, only to have them cover or win outright.  It feels like a lot.  Anyway, here’s hoping the Lions keep it close in their traditional Thanksgiving game.  Fork over 25 Munsons on Detroit.

Dallas (-10) over New York – The Cowboys have won three of their last four games and the only loss happened when they blew a 14-point lead in the second half.  They’ve scored 118 points in their last three games and should be able to score enough to cover a double-digit spread.  Meanwhile, the Giants have lost by more than 10 points in two of their last three games, including last week against the Lions at home.  Yuck.  Feed 50 Longleys on the home team.

New England (+2.5) over Minnesota – These two teams don’t play very often and the Vikings have lost their last five games to the Patriots, having last won in the series in the year 2000.  This time, they’re coming off a horrendous loss in a short week.  Throw down 25 Sam Bams on the Patriots.

Baltimore (-4) over Jacksonville – The Ravens weren’t able to cover the big spread last week but it wasn’t the fault of the defense.  Look for the offense to get back on track this week, even against a pretty solid Jaguars defense.  Put 25 Suggs’ on the visitors.

Denver (-2) over Carolina – Each week there seems to be a reference to the Broncos not being able to score.  But this is the week where 14 points might be enough.  The Panthers remain winless against teams outside the NFC South.  Go 25 Elways on the Broncos.

Washington (-4.5) over Atlanta – The Falcons are 1-4 on the road this year.  The Commanders haven’t been a great home team but they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  After playing five straight games decided by five points or fewer, Washington has won its last two by a combined 24 points.  Place 50 Manleys on the home team.

New York (-6) over Chicago – Justin Fields has partially torn ligaments in his separated shoulder.  It’s his non-throwing shoulder but still.  It’s tough to bet on either team, especially with the Jets playing a backup QB.  Hmm, take the points or take the home team?  Wager 25 Casters on the Jets.

Tennessee (+2.5) over Cincinnati – The Titans have won seven of their last eight games, with their only loss coming by three points in Kansas City.  They’re coming off the “half bye,” having last played on 11/17.  The Bengals can definitely put points on the board.  But Tennessee held the Chiefs to 20 points and should be able to keep the Bengals from exploding, too.  Move 25 Haynesworths on the home team.

Miami (-13.5) over Houston – Miami is 4-1 at home, coming off a 22-point win against the Browns last week.  The Texans are even worse.  Houston has lost just one game this year by 14 or more points but the Dolphins seemed poised to make it two.  Roll 25 Warfields on the Dolphins.

Cleveland (+3.5) over Tampa Bay – It’s been a year to forget for the Browns but they’re a sneaky-good home cover.  Cleveland is just 2-3 at home but two of those losses were by a combined three points.  Weather forecast calls for rain, which could make things tough on old man Brady, too.  Flip 25 Cribbs’ on the home team.

Los Angeles (-3) over Arizona – After back-to-back tough losses against top squads, the Chargers get the reeling Cardinals, whose only recent win came against the Rams without Matthew Stafford.  Chargers still have something to play for while the Cardinals don’t.  Pick: 25 Alworths on the Chargers.

Seattle (-3.5) over Las Vegas – The Seahawks had their four-game win streak snapped in Germany.  That shouldn’t count, right?  The schedule makers try to make it right by giving them the Raiders this week.  Las Vegas has three wins this year – two against an offensively-challenged Denver squad and one against the lowly Texans.  Doesn’t sound like a recipe for a road win.  Kick 50 Hauschkas on the Seahawks.

San Francisco (-9.5) over New Orleans – The 49ers have five wins this year by double-digit points.  And the Saints haven’t played great outside, as they’re 1-3 in road games, with their win coming in the dome in Atlanta.  Also, they lost as the home team in London in the outdoors.  Throw down 50 Stubblefields on the home team.

Kansas City (-15.5) over Los Angeles – The Rams have lost six of their last seven games, with their only win in that stretch coming against a Carolina team that traveled across the country after just firing their coach.  The Chiefs have only had two blowout wins this year but both came against NFC West clubs.  This week they make it a third.  Drop 25 Jamaals on Kansas City.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over Green Bay – The Eagles barely won last week after having lost the week before.  They’re not looking invincible but they’re going up against a Packers squad that’s lost six of their last seven games.  And now we hear that Aaron Rodgers has been playing with a broken right thumb.  While tempted to make this a best bet, this is the Sunday night game.  Bet 25 Hairstons on the home team.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Pittsburgh – The oddsmakers are starting to show Jeff Saturday some respect, making the Colts the favorite for the first time sinch he took over.  Meanwhile, the Steelers are just 1-4 on the road this year, with their only win coming in Week 1.  Toss 25 Addais on the Colts

3 comments on “NFL picks against the spread for Week 12

  • Mike W

    I have one guarantee pick. Ravens -4 vs Jax. I would bet the farm on the Ravens.

    • Brian Joura


    • Mike W

      How funny. Now you why I don’t gamble.

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