Following the Mets’ indicators after a month of action

After a month of baseball, many aspects of the games are taking shape. There have been lots of rule changes the last couple of years many fans like and many fans dislike.  How these rule changes affect the Mets also varies.

As Steven Shrager wrote last week, the Mets DH is a work in progress. The implementation of a pitch clock *should* impact “ready batters”, and the Mets have several hitters that are “ball in play” guys.  The shift is gone. Pickoff throws are reduced. Bases are larger.

For the Mets offense, most of the hitters are line drive, alley hitters, and the lack of a shift could improve their BABIP, resulting in better team performance. These more esoteric statistics can highlight the path to success, or explain why a team isn’t seeing the successes expected at the start of the year.

Just looking at the Mets successes so far this season, one might surmise the rules changes have looked favorably upon the Mets players and as a team.  As Brian Joura noted about Pete Alonso , Alonso has been a big reason, and very little is readily attributable to the rules changes.

So how are the Mets doing? For starters, they are not dominating the categories changed thus far. The pitch clock is not shortening their games as much as other clubs.  Mets games are taking the longest in the National League. These aren’t Steve Trachsel type starts, and we used to hear about defensive struggles behind slow games.  These Mets games are required to be at a pace to keep the defense on their toes, and that has absolutely worked out.

Defensively, the Mets were expected to be above average. A stabilized position assignment does help the psychological aspect of defensive pay, so leaving players in their position has resulted in good defensive averages and a solid 10-12 runs saved already.

With the removal of the shift, there was some talk about the Mets’ hitters improving, but the Mets have not seen an increase in BABIP.  They are in the bottom three of the National League. Given the Mets record, this is likely to be good news, as “all things being equal,” the Mets could expect regression to the mean, increase their base runners, and score more runs via the rally.

The other expected playoff teams, the Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals have a much higher “hard hit” batted balls. The Mets will need to improve hitting the balls on the screws more, or they will rely too much on hitting it where opponents ain’t.  Given the injuries to the pitching staff, the Mets need to be able to generate offense.  Amazingly, they have been, but it is a lot of smoke and mirrors so far.

The Mets are also the oldest team in the league. Injuries may be expected, so having Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and perhaps Mark Vientos up will be a necessity. They are going to have to get better starting pitching.

There are absolutely conflicting data points. That’s why we look at many different aspects and try to address items that have more reliable fixes.  Teams cannot address BABIP very easily, and maybe even hard hit balls.

At this point in the season, most of the bad things for the Mets are “luck based,” while most of the good things they have done are “skill based.”  Defense has solid skills, and barring injuries, should be a reliable aspect of the Mets team. Hard hit balls is a good indicator of success, and the Mets are not doing that well. It may not be required if they can manage a strong BABIP, which they aren’t doing.

Currently, chips are falling in the Mets favor, and all the wins in the book mean greater likelihood of the playoffs. Of course, once in the playoffs it will be catching a hot starting staff and bats, and that’s enough to focus on  – get the wins day to day, and look for available inning eaters.

Keeping an eye on the indicators is important to catch the right winds.