I occasionally check the CBS Sports website including the MLB standings. The standings section includes hard data like won-lost, games behind, and run differential for each team, and also some projections. I began noticing, some time ago, that the projections were outrageous, in too many instances.
The CBS computer, presumably powered by AI (artificial intelligence) offers three projections for each team, wins by season’s end, chances of winning the division, and chances of qualifying for the postseason. For example, the Mets, who are 14-8 and ½ game behind Atlanta after the weekend action, are projected to win 95.4 games, with a 90.3% chance of the postseason, but only a 33.5 % chance of winning the division. The Braves are projected at 99.1 wins, with a 96.7% likelihood of making the postseason and 62.5% chance of taking the division. So the teams are only ½ games apart, yet the electronic number cruncher has a nearly twice as much chance of the Braves winning the division than the Mets do.
It gets even worse for the AI team. On Saturday the projection was 100% probability of the Braves winning the division as opposed to zero % chance for the Mets, at least according to the CBS computers. Since then each team lost twice. The most recent projection is better than the previous one, but why would both teams losing mean such a huge change in the percentages? There are plenty of similar anomalies for other teams as well, but I focused on the Mets.
There have been numerous warnings of the dangers of AI recently, stories about the possibilities of the devices becoming sentient and destroying humanity. Elon Musk for one has issued such warnings. When I see how badly these computers are botching the task of projecting the MLB season, I’ll save my worrying for other things besides the rise of civilization-destroying AI.
My fantasy football league is run by CBS Sports. They have their preseason projections for all of the players and then they grade everyone’s draft based on those preseason projections. I don’t go by their projections and each year I get a middling grade from them. I’ve also played for the championship in the past four seasons.
Any systematic forecast system is only as good as its inputs. And the inputs can only be so good for final MLB standings on April 24th.
And what were the odds of Tampa Bay starting off 19-3. For the season, the AI bots should have looked the Mets record without Verlander and Scherzer for a few starts and seeing they are on Atlanta’s tail.
That and some other things Mike like the fact that Atlanta has had way more home games than the Mets so far and has only playd one winning team, Houston.
And lost all 3 games
The great part is that the game is played on the field not in a computer simulation. I value analytics but without the human factor there would be no logical reason to have beaten the Orioles in ‘69, or in ‘86 to have won game six or even gotten past the Astros to make it to the series. Yes, the Braves have a better team. Year 4 of the Cohen plan is to move ahead of the Braves.
I remember in high school a movie called “War Games” with Matthew Broderick. I don’t know if many of y’all remember it or even know about it, but it dealt with the scenario of computers taking over the world and creating (simulating) a nuclear war. Since then, I don’t pay attention to AI scares because I realize man has long ago considered this.
As to the Braves and their chances, they are a better team on paper and not as hurt in the rotation. Plus, their bullpen is better; they deserve the love. The Mets need to overcome that, need to get as healthy as possible, and need Alonso to not slow down. If he does, they will have a problem. The Mets are still OBP darlings – kind of like the Yankees always were these last twenty-five years – but we have to admit that the Mets’ pitching staff is held together by paper clips and rubbers bands.
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Since I have fallen off the baseball bandwagon lately, I’d like to take the opportunity to say that I miss you all and will try to be around more often. My life is changing and baseball isn’t on my mind as much but I do keep track of every game and check highlights most nights. I don’t check minor leagues, like I used to, and don’t worry about who the Mets can get in a trade. It’s quite nice, actually, LOL.
…and the back-door password is “Joshua.”
Nice to hear from you Gus, and hope your life changes work out for the best.
Some stats make me laugh. When the Mets are down one run in the 8th inning, I don’t need an AI prediction popping up saying the other team has an 88% chance of winning. I watch so I can have the emotion of Pete Alonso coming to the plate to see if he could tie it with one swing. That is almost as annoying as Arod and his screachy voice.