Pete Alonso is on the cusp of making serious bank – and he deserves every penny. We started hearing about his prodigious home run power when he was drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2016 Amateur Draft from the University of Florida. The number one overall pick that year? The Phillies drafted high school outfielder Mickey Moniak – whose only distinction so far in baseball is that he was traded for Noah Syndergaard. Moniak is currently in AAA with the Salt Lake Bees. The Mets #1 selection in 2016 was Justin Dunn – and then with their second selection that year they drafted Anthony Kay. Both are major league players – but neither has made an impact. So goes the baseball draft.

When Alonso played in the Futures Game in 2018 and he hit one out of the stadium, we knew we had something. Interestingly, he was called Peter Alonso in those days. It wasn’t until his rookie year that he corrected everyone – politely saying in an interview that his Dad was Peter: “I’m just Pete.” He won fans over that very day.

Alonso has dominated the game since he burst onto the scene in 2019. That year he won the Rookie of the Year and led the majors in home runs – breaking the all time record for a rookie. Since he started taking part in major league games, no one in the game has hit as many balls over the wall as Alonso. In just about 3 ½ years in the MLB, taking into account the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he has 156 home runs and 403 RBI’s – with an .890 OPS. His career OPS+ is 142 (league average is 100) and so far this year it is a ridiculous 185.

In 21 games this year, Alonso has 24 hits – 10 of them over the wall; he is batting .293 and leads the league with 23 RBI’s. He has 55 Total Bases – on a pace to exceed 400. Hank Aaron led the league in total bases eight times – only once with as many as 400. Astonishingly, Aaron led the league in this most underrated category six times in the eight years from 1956 to 1963.

Alonso is in his fifth year of major league service. (As an aside, the decision to place him on the major league roster at the beginning of the 2019 season was absolutely the right call – even if the Mets could have chiseled Alonso out of a year of eligibility.) Right now, the best power hitter in the game makes $14.5M. The smart thing for the Mets to do is to offer him an extension now – rather than wait for another year. This coming off-season Alonso will be entering his final year of arbitration eligibility – just one year from free agency. The market for players who hit free agency has been absurd. Last winter, Aaron Judge signed a 9 year $360M deal – a player with similar offensive skills but one who is not as durable as Alonso – and two years older. Alonso would be justified in looking for north of $400M on a 10-year deal.

Recent moves by the Mets have made it clear that they are building for the long term. Alonso would be the cornerstone of a core lineup that would last for at least five years. Here’s what they are constructing: Catcher: F. Alvarez (21); 1B: P. Alonso (28); 2B R. Mauricio (22); SS: F. Lindor (29); 3B: B. Baty (23); CF: B. Nimmo (30); OF: J. McNeil (31); DH/OF: M. Vientos (23). (I wrote a recent article about signing Juan Soto – which would cost an absolute packet – that would make the Mets odds on favorites every year for the foreseeable future.)

Mets fans’ savior, Steve Cohen, has made every effort to win favor with the Mets fan base by signing position players to long term deals and to committing to a sustainable winning franchise. This past off-season the team inked Nimmo and McNeil. What the team needs now is to develop good young pitching through the amateur draft. They can focus on that goal by locking down the best power hitter in the game to solidify a great lineup at the major league level.

Prediction: 10 years, $425M, starting in the 2024 season.

3 comments on “Alonso is killing it in 2023: What will it take to keep him beyond 2024?

  • Brian Joura

    This was written awhile ago but just posted today because we just had an Alonso article at the site when Denis submitted it.

    At the time this was written, Alonso looked like an MVP candidate. What’s the old saying? You’re never as good as it seems when everything is going right and you’re never as bad as it seems when things are going wrong. Earlier, Alonso was showing great patience at the plate and not swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone. Now? His walk percentage is a tick below his lifetime rate and his strikeout percentage is a tick above. It’s hard to argue that he’s made any improvement at all.

    The good news is that his SLG is the best it’s been since his rookie season. The bad news is that everything else is the same or worse than before.

    In his last 11 games – which includes games with back-to-back homers – Alonso has a .244 AVG and a .661 OPS, despite a .300 BABIP.

    I like Alonso and he gives the club a much-needed dimension. But as much as I like him, there’s no way I give him a 10-year deal. I’d be hard pressed to give him anything above a 5-year contract. Maybe that means a significantly higher AAV. Alonso becomes a free agent the same offseason that Scherzer’s deal expires, assuming he opts in to 2024. Maybe Pete takes over the 3/$130 deal of Scherzer. Regardless, it’s a hard no for me on a 10-year deal for Alonso.

  • Name

    Pete plays first base, not shortstop or OF.

    The highest paid 1b are freeman, who signed 6/162 with a ton deferred and Goldschmidt, who signed for 5/130.

    So the AAV for top 1b don’t even crack 30 mil, let alone 40. And as Brian noted, it will not take anything close to 10 years. If he gets 7 he would be considered lucky

  • Metsense

    Pete Alonso is very good. He is a elite power hitter but he doesn’t dominate the game. It is 4 years he has just one major league home run title. In one year he wasn’t even in the top 10 in the majors. He is not athletic and he below average fielder. Alonso is is a consistent hitter that you can depend on an batting average of .260 and 37 plus homeruns. He has a good attitude and works hard to improve himself. He is a fan favoritre. The Mets should extend him in the offseason for 5/$150m or a maximum of 7 years at $189m.

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