Readers of these pages may remember the warning from last year’s May 30th piece , warning about the Mets’ June Swoon. A look at the last five years revealed the Mets performed poorly in June. On average 100 points worse than their season otherwise. Last year the Mets posted a 13-12, a .520 clip which was good, but also had they gone 14-11 they would have won the division outright. On the season the Mets played at a 0.623 record. The Mets inexplicably cannot play in June. It is hard to tell if the coaching staff just takes a break. Maybe it is just the Baseball Gods curse from June 15, 1977.
If you are reading this, you are well aware of June 2023. After losing to the Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 on Thursday June 29, the Mets are sitting at 7-18 in June for a solid(?) 0.280 pace. That is slightly ahead of the 1962 Mets, but just barely. Given the Mets’ recent history, the rest of the season will basically keep the Mets playing to a 72-win season. Getting back to 0.500 is going to be a challenge.
A month ago, the handwriting was on the wall, and suggestions were made to try to minimize the damage done in June. Mets GM Billy Eppler made no moves, and coupled with Buck Showalter’s “gut” managing, the Mets have dug a deep hole. No help for the bullpen, no corner outfielder, no starting pitcher. Nine games under 0.500 is not a buyer’s record, particularly if the person doing the buying isn’t sure what he should be buying. If the Mets finish 30 games worse than 2022, you can expect Eppler and Showalter to do something else in 2024.
One of the biggest warning signs is the team age. Yes, having Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer was always going to push the team age upwards, but those are Hall of Fame performers. The Mets team age is 32.5 years. The next oldest team is the Boston Red Sox at 30.7. Baseball researchers going back 40 years understand peak baseball age. Bill James in his 1982 Baseball Abstract wrote about it. It’s been studied a great deal. Most players peak at age 27, with some at 26 and 28. What they are definitely doing by 30 plus is declining. There are exceptions for Hall of Fame players.
How Eppler and owner Steven Cohen overlook this as an obvious issue is an indicator, they are either not listening to the team statheads or they have bad statheads.
A month ago wasn’t the time to panic. Now is the time to panic. It is time to either poop or get off the pot. If the Mets continue to dig this hole, they should unload whomever they can in order to get younger for 2024. The good news is the core is solid. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and youngsters Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez leave very little to “go get”.
The Mets have to improve the rotation and the bullpen immediately. Maybe that means trading Mark Vientos, or another prospect. Those are actions if Cohen plans to push Eppler to compete. Otherwise, unloading Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Luis Guillorme, and even McNeil if necessary.
Now a little conspiracy theory.
The Mets pitchers have been giving up home runs at a startling rate, leading the National League for a while. Citi Field is not a home run park. Nothing is beyond Rob Manfred. He is a bad commissioner and his recent work on the Oakland fans highlight that. Mets owner Cohen spent wildly and Manfred and other owners were chirping about how the Mets’ payroll was bad for the game.
How about if MLB does for the Mets games what they did for Aaron Judge’s games? Toss a few extra home run balls in. Suddenly the Mets stumble, and Cohen learns “you can’t buy a championship”, as his pitchers get bombed frequently, and he has to pay a significant luxury tax on a 70-win team.
“Nice pitching staff you have there. It’d be a shame if anything happened to it.”
Someone should start sending Dr. Meredith Wills some baseballs from Mets games.
If you want teams to pick up the declining veterans you mentioned, then you need to sweeten the pot and offer some “good” pieces also. Pete Alonso should be shopped. Jeff McNeil should be shopped. What returns a ‘good’ GM can get is anybody’s guess. What the Mets will get?
Adding insult to injury, Conforto and JD Davis; who are doing well with the Giants, will give us problems this weekend. Oh, and I forget. What did we get for unloading them? Nothing. So much for having a savvy front office to “fix” this mess of a team. Shades of 1992.
The Mets need to get younger as you pointed out in your article. Robertson, Pham, Carrasco and, Vogelbach will be free agents in 2024. They should trade them for the best prospects that they can obtain. After all, they’re going with you lose them anyway. Canha and Raley have club options. Canha should be considered a free agent in of the terms his Mets status. Ottavino and Narvaez have player options and should to traded this summer if if the Mets can. All these players mentioned will not yield a top #15 prospects or better but they will yield minor league depth for other off-season trades.
If they offer to trade Verlander or Scherzer to a desperate playoffs team then they should jump on it. The free agent class of 2024 has many good young 30-year-old pitchers available.
Alonso and McNeil futures can be determined in the off season not at the deadline.
That was an interesting article that you linked. Thanks.
Contending teams who want starters to get over the top will jump at the chance to pick up Scherzer and Verlander I’d the Mets pay a large portion if their contracts. If the Mets do this, they will get a couple of top prospects.
Robertson will yield a good prospect as well. The Yankees need an outfielder, and it has been rumored that could be Marte.
McNeil gets on my nerves. He waves at pitches with his wiffle ball bat. I night feel differently about him if he stole 30 bases a year, but he doesn’t.
The others, Canha, Vogelbach, etc…can be traded for depth pieces.
I look forward to the Mets making some big changes. And I look forward to seeing the team get younger.