If you asked 100 people who the best starting pitcher for the Mets is, the most common answer would probably be Luis Severino. And while he got off to a great start this year – buoyed by having six of his first 10 starts in Citi Field while it was playing as an extreme pitcher’s park – what he’s done lately has been less than good.

In his last 11 starts, Severino has a 4.61 ERA and a 4.91 FIP. And he has two main problems in this stretch. One is a disappointing 6.06 K/9 and the other is that after doing a good job of suppressing homers early on, Severino has allowed 10 HR in his last 68.1 IP. While it’s nowhere near as bad as his 2.32 HR/9 of 2023, it’s alarming how what was a strength in April has turned into a liability.

Things have gotten really bad over his last four starts, which includes a game where he fanned 10 over six shutout innings. In these last four appearances, Severino has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.62 FIP over 25.1 IP. This span has 17 Ks and 6 HR, for a 6.04 K/9 and a 2.13 HR/9.

It’s almost like he’s morphed into Tylor Megill. He has outings where everything falls into place and he looks great. In his last 11 games, he has four starts where he’s combined to allow 3 ER in 27 IP. But in the other seven games, he’s been awful. In those starts, he’s allowed 32 ER in 41.1 IP for a 6.97 ERA.

Every pitcher is allowed to have bad outings throughout the year. But Severino is coming close to reaching his quota, assuming he hasn’t already done so, and there’s still over two-and-a-half months remaining in the season. And given his poor strikeout rate, along with his gopher balls trending in the wrong direction, is there any reason to be optimistic about his pitching going forward?

5 comments on “Checking in on Luis Severino

  • TexasGusCC

    I wonder how good Hefner actually is… before we get rid of all these pitchers, I would want to get another voice. What has this guy done to help anyone? When you say that Severino has morphed into Megill, and I recall Peterson coming back from injury last June and saying how helpful Quintana was to his results… what more needs to be said?

  • Robert

    Editor’s Note – Is it Robert?
    Or is it Woodrow?
    Or is it Albert?
    Or is it Alex?
    Or is it Boo?
    Or is it Buck?

    Pick one username and stick with it – both in comments and in the chat.

    • Woodrow


  • NYM6986

    Seems there is a market for Severino and I’d move him as soon as possible before other teams start selling off their pieces. I like Hefner but his job is to straighten out pitchers. He was a genius in 2022 with 101 wins and not so smart last year. Why can’t he get them to throw more strikes and not walk so many batters? Perhaps the pitchers just don’t listen. Do they not have thousands of hours of videotape of when the pitchers were doing better? Seems logical that bad habits can be corrected and there is no time like the present. Of course, you can make the same case for the hitting coach who is supposed to be there to straighten out the hitters. Whoever has been working with Jeff McNeil should be looking for a new job.

    • Metstabolism

      This idea that beating other teams to the market helps boost your price is really just theoretical. It may help, it may not. Because jumping into the market early means there are also fewer buyers who might drive the price up.

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