Coming off an NL Player of the Week Award, Juan Lagares was named the everyday centerfielder, further cemented by Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ demotion to AAA Las Vegas.
He has posted numbers like a .352/.400/.537/.937 slash and a .393 wOBA, albeit helped by a .462 BABIP, in July and has played plus defense at a prime position.
While Lagares has been swinging a red-hot bat for the better part of July and has shown signs of promise, his game needs to improve if he’s going to have long-term success.
The first thing that pops out as needing improvement in Lagares’ game is his strikeout rate. For the season it currently sits at an Dave Kingmanian 25.3%, while his ISO sits at a Daniel Murphian .131.
Even during his success in July, Lagares has struck out in about a quarter of his plate appearances while managing an ISO under .185.
A strikeout rate that high is not intolerable, but it is difficult to strike out that much and hit for little power and still be a productive hitter.
Looking at Lagares and by seeing that he’s listed at 6’1” 175 lbs, there certainly seems to be room for him to grow and develop more power (even if it’s ‘only’ doubles power) as his career progresses.
The only worry if that happens is that additional size would perhaps hamper his ability to play centerfield to the standard he has set so far in his young career.
It’s also conceivable that as his career progresses and he works more with hitting coach Dave Hudgens, his strikeout rate will decrease as he learns better pitch recognition.
There is evidence that this transformation is already taking place in his walk rate, which has increased from 1.4% in June to 6.7% in July. While that 6.7% may not be the prettiest number, it represents a vast improvement, although it may just be the result of random variation.
Speaking of walk rates, that happens to be another area of his game that could use some improvement.
As I just mentioned, while it has improved in the month of July, the sample sizes that we have to deal with are so small it’s nearly impossible to tell if any statistically significant improvements have been made.
Looking at the much larger sample of his minor league statistics, the highest walk rate he posted was last year with Binghamton when he walked in 6.8% of his plate appearances. Putting that into perspective, Cesar Puello, noted for being an impatient hitter, is walking in 7.3% of his plate appearances this year.
Perhaps more patience at the plate will come with more experience. Perhaps he’ll hit for enough power to negate the poor walk rate (see Byrd, Marlon).
While I was never terribly high on Lagares as a prospect, I find myself finding that he may very well turn out to be a productive major leaguer the more I watch him play.
If he could put it all together and either develop a little more patience or a little more power, the Mets could find themselves with a 2-3 WAR centerfielder with plus defense at a prime position; a nice complimentary piece on a team that figures to be competing for a pennant in the not-so-distant future.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer and radio host. Follow him on Twitter or visit his website.
It takes time to develop your skills and more importantly your confidence, Perfect example would be Carlos Gomez. I said in an earlier blog that Latin players are taught at an early age that the only way they can reach the major leagues is by hitting and that walking is frowned upon. To Spanish players a strikeout is no different then a fly ball or ground out. To me I see no reason why Lagares can’t put on say 10 addition pounds of muscle. It shouldn’t affect his defense and might provide some gap power.
I can’t really comment on the differences between the Latin and American baseball cultures, but as far as the 10 extra pounds goes, I’d say that Lagares could probably put on 20-30 over the next two or three years, not lose an overwhelming amount of speed and gain a nice amount of power.
I did a quick search of the spread between BABIP and avg, and i noticed that Lagares has an incredible 80 point split. I also looked at the average which was around 40 points and i noticed that many of the good hitters are between 20-40, with Pujols actually having a higher avg than BABIP(i have no idea how that’s possible) and guys like Puig having a spread of nearly 100 points and 50 points for a guy that many hope Lagares turns into, Carlos Gomez.
What does that mean, if anything? Well, if Lagares continues to show this huge spread and when his BABIP comes down to a reasonable level near .300, it may mean that he will probably struggle to hit more than .230-.240.
Again, i don’t know if the spread between BABIP and AVG mean anything at all, but I just wanted to put it out there.
BABIP spreads are kind of iffy. Since strikeouts and home runs don’t count towards BABIP, guys who strike out a lot will have a bigger spread than guys who don’t. The small sample size could be responsible for Lagares’ split (it takes about 1100 PAs for BABIP to stabilize), but the 25% K-rate doesn’t help either.
As far as Pujols goes, since he hits a lot of HRs, the average goes up for those, and his BABIP stays the same. It’s rare, but it happens every now and again.
Of course, Lagares’ July walk totals got fueled by several IBBs.
From what I’ve seen, he’s getting a little better in his ability to lay off the low outside pitch … and when he does hit it, he’s at least taking it the other way.
I’ve made the comp to Gomez myself, but maybe we’re both missing the more obvious comp to a former Met … Endy Chavez. At any rate, I don’t see him ever getting to much better than .260/.280/.420. And with his defense, that’s enough. If his production ever gets to 740 he’s an All Star.
To me, players like EYJ and JL give the management the ability to simply check things off their list. Defense up the middle? Check. Leadoff hitter? Check. Granted, you might have gotten that both in a single roster spot by signing Michael Bourne, but its a payroll flexibility tradeoff.
You’re right Jerry, but I should’ve used his uIBB% to take out that variable. In July he has 5 walks and 2 have been intentional. So that’s 3 unintentional walks on the month, which works out to a 4.2 uIBB%.
I like the Endy comp, but I think JL is going to hit a little more than Chavez did (over the course of his entire career), but I don’t see him being as good as Gomez is.