In the pro wrestling world, Jeff Hardy is known as “The Ultimate Enigma.” In the baseball world, that title belongs to Mets first baseman Ike Davis.
Just when it looks like we’ve figured out what exactly Davis is as a player, he morphs into a completely different player.
Take my article from May. I proclaimed Davis a lost cause, implying that he would likely never be a useful player again in the major leagues.
Well, now here we are on August 12th, and Davis is looking like a viable major leaguer. His slash line sits at a pitiful, .205/.325/.317/.642, but it is a Miguel Cabrerian .352/.521/.574/1.095 since the all-star break. Sure he only has one home run, but when you have an OBP of over .500 for more than a month, that is tolerable.
The key in Davis’ turnaround seems to be his greatly improved pitch selection. He is now striking out 20.5% of the time while drawing a walk in an absurd 26% of his plate appearances. In the first half of the year, those numbers were 30.5% and 10.5%, respectively.
He has also gotten some help from the BABIP gods – he sports a .474 BABIP after the break compared to .224 before, combining for a mark of .282.
While I can’t say with any kind of certainty what exactly Wally Backman and George Greer worked on with Davis while he was in AAA, but I’m a little skeptical that this dramatic shift in results is the direct result of any coaching that happened during his month long stint in the desert.
What this reeks of to me is a combination of small sample size variation (with respect to his walk and strikeout rates) and good old fashioned BABIP regression.
His .224 mark in the first half is virtually unsustainable, and his current .282 BABIP is very close in line with his .289 career average (albeit there are some truly wild BABIP fluctuations in Davis’ numbers).
Now I don’t mean to completely discredit any work that was done by the Las Vegas coaching staff; perhaps the physical adjustments they made to Davis’ swing allow him to wait on pitches longer and better identify balls from strikes, explaining the walk and strikeout rates changing as well as his increase in BABIP.
Then again, in the live ball era, only Barry Bonds has ever posted a walk percentage higher than 26%.
I’ll believe Davis is back and truly when his home run power comes back around. First basemen with .191 career ISOs generally don’t last long in the majors, no matter what their OBP is.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer and radio host. Follow him on Twitter at @JoeVasilePBP and visit his website.
Ike Davis is inconsistent. He has played well enough to be tendered a contract in arbitration. I hope he plays well enough so that they can trade him for some value this winter. Let him be some other teams project.
BTW it is impressive how hard he is hitting the ball when he makes contact but that still doesn’t change my opinion. Next year I would prefer more consistant production from 1B throughout the season.
Thats exactly my feeling too Metsense. We still dont know who Ike Davis is. His total inconsistency (and I dont mean streaks that all players have) makes him a genuine question mark.His longest stretches seem to be a player of poor production; its my guess hes not totally “first half” bad, but he’s not far from it. And now we have Ike v. 3.0 (or is it 4.0?). The high BA/OBP guy that cant hit for power. His numbers remind me more of what we want from Tejada. If this is the new Ike, I wonder what it means for an MLB 1B man. It doesnt translate to DH in the AL, even though his defense is going backwards. Who wants a these kinds of numbers from a power position? It seems like he’s from the Island of Misfit Toys…he’s the enigmatic Charlie-in-the-box.
I think we are on Ike v.4.0 at this point.
If Wilmer Flores continues to produce at the MLB level, the Mets have to find a place for him or (perish the thought) trade him. Where do you play him when David Wright is healthy? 2B and move Daniel Murphy or 1B and move Ike Davis? Davis is too inconsistent to be a regular on a winning team, and probably has little value as a trading chip. Murphy’s trade value is probably higher, but I think his value to the Mets may also be higher even though he is not a true power bat.
Like others have said, I would not lose much sleep if both Davis and Lucas Duda are not with the Mets next year.
Ok, Im gonna say it. I woke up this morning with this thought (I might add, I had the game on ear buds when I fell asleep, so I was apparently dreaming Mets!): After watching 50 games of Flores killing it at 3B and surpassing RBI production of most of the full-season players, David Wright gives Sandy a call as says “Sandy, I’d like to move to short. I still got foot speed and a split second more time to see the ball wont hurt either. We go from a problem with a duplicate position player to solving the left side of the infield with no more cash dropped. Done. Now get your ass on the phone with Boras and get Choo in here to play RF. I WANT TO PLAY IN OCTOBER!…and one last thing, I like Ike a lot but heres the deal…he aint the guy…fix that too.”
The problem is Sandy and Terry can’t get the Image out of there minds of the second half of
last year and believe Ike will return to form next year and hit 40 or more hr’s and drive in
over a 100 rbi’s!
Of the options on the team, I’d be more inclined to see Flores at 1B than Murphy. Leave Murph alone, expose the team to as few issues as possible defensively.
But I’m willing to let Davis change my mind. If he can hit … 12 homers between here and October … that would be enough in my mind.
I really dont think Ike has any trade value, he seems miles removed from his HR swing….people are going to think he had Valley Fever and he’ll never comes anywhere close to 40 HRs again.
I’ve given up trying to figure out Ike. But I have to say I like this version and I hope he stays awhile. Last year I wrote a piece saying the Mets should give him the take sign when he got to an 0-2 count. I don’t know if Ike has an improved eye since he went to Vegas but I do know he’s not swinging at every stinking pitch once he gets to two strikes. That by itself is a great improvement.
Right now the ball is in the pitchers’ court. Ike has adjusted and is not swinging and they’re still throwing him balls out of the zone. At some point they’re going to try to start throwing strikes again. The key will be what happens when they do.
Plus like Keith Hernandez has been saying lately, it’s like pitchers are treating him as if he’s Babe Ruth. The game plan to pitch to Ike has not changed and if Ike can recognize these bad offspeed pitches, let’s take the walks until pitchers start throwing more fastballs to him. It’s amazing how many pitches out of the zone he is getting.
What do the Mets do if Ike continues to be consistent and finishes the season with a .270 avg., OBP .380-90. 80-90 walks,75-80 R.B.I.’s? Home run hitters go through droughts but when they come, they come in bushels.
If he has <20 HR, <.800 OPS, and <80 RBI then I dump him. I cant see him making any of those. He will never post a .270 BA. He is presently slugging .317, which wont cut it for a power position IMO. Right now he is putting up Tejada-like offense.
And who plays first base next year? Duda? Satin? Or a free agent? Maybe Lyle Overbay? At least he’ll be cheap around a million plus incentives. Would Ike be a better option being tendered a 20% pay cut?
Davis will probably get a raise in arbitration to 4M. Duda (and Tejada) seems to be the players the Mets are blaming for the bad start this year so I don’t see him back in 2014. There are two 30 yoa free agents, Loney and Morales, who would probably require 24-30M for 3 years. That is double the salary of Davis. I don’t expect money to be spent at 1B with a need at Ss and both corner OF positions.. Each day it is becoming more apparent that Ike will be at 1B and TC in the dugout in 2014.
🙁
It’s the lesser of two evils. At least Ike might prove everyone wrong. But TC….He has nothing to prove and nothing to show the fan base. With so many role players on this roster it would be nice to either trade for or sign a corner outfielder. Morales is too questionable with his health. I’m not a big fan of Loney. Right now he’s playing for a new contract. I wonder if and when he get’s it does his production go south?