It’s difficult to decipher much of the intel coming from the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate Las Vegas. The hitters are mashing and the pitchers are… well, crashing in the run-happy Pacific Coast League. Of course, the most watchful eyes are focused on the Mets’ number one prospect Noah Syndergaard, who is having a less than stellar year. In 17 starts and 84.2 IP, the big right-hander has a 5.74 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, alarmingly high numbers for any pitcher at any level. How much could actually be attributed to the thin air of Las Vegas?
As always, that’s an anomaly. Take the offense for example. The 56-43 division leading ‘51s are batting .285 as a team while averaging a league high 6.37 runs a game. Matt den Dekker, who struggled mightily with the bat during his brief stint with the Mets this season, is batting .316 with a .892 OPS in 71 games. He’s batted .411 since returning to minors in June. Wilmer Flores, who has also struggled with the big club, has been equally as hot since being demoted. For the season, in 191 ABs, Flores is batting .325 with 12 HR and 53 RBIs, statistics that scream for an everyday spot at the major leagues. Flores batted .225 in his major league stint, den Dekker .156, and both, many times, looked lost at the plate.
Obviously, major league pitching has much to blame for lack of production, but much can be attributed to sporadic playing time. Flores has said that his timing has improved since he’s been back to playing every day as well as his defense. Yet how much can we still attribute to his talent as opposed to the advantageous conditions of the PCL? As promising a prospect he is, his statistics rival that of a superstar, yet no call-up appears imminent by GM Sandy Alderson. Syndergaard, despite his struggles, could be re-called in September for a few starts depending on the health and presence of the current starters on the roster. There have not been alarming reports of diminished velocity from Vegas, but he’s been a disappointment regardless.
The statistics do not seem to be a deciding factor regarding promotions. The eyes of manager Wally Backman seem to be a useful tool for Alderson for assessment; Travis d’Arnaud being the most recent example.
After his demotion, d’Arnaud immediately tore up Triple-A pitching. In 15 games with Las Vegas, d’Arnaud hit .436 with six homers and 16 RBIs. Much like Flores, it was as if the major league struggles never occurred, at least in respect to his mental approach. After the first week of torrid hitting and productive results, Terry Collins relayed the organization’s handling of d’Arnaud citing the results will be monitored secondarily, and the quality of at-bats and swings would be the determining factor of a promotion.
As a fan, the best angle to take in regards to any of the 51s’ success, might be to just trust the front office and use any statistics as rationally as possible. The Las Vegas team ERA is 4.73 and that still only ranks them 11th out of 16 teams. In fact, Nashville and Iowa are the only teams with sub-four ERAs and it’s fair to say they reside outside anything that can be called Pacific. We cannot use this as an excuse for the pitchers, but the attention should be focused on the scouting and words from actual people, than any statistics. Syndergaard will probably not make it to the majors with a 5.71 ERA, but if he were to string together a few quality starts without dominating, a recall this year should not be that surprising.
This goes for the hitters too. Don’t expect to see Flores, den Dekker, or the rest of the plus .300 hitters in Vegas in the major leagues anytime soon. The Mets are hitting their stride lately and do not appear to be looking within the organization for any re-enforcements just yet. For now, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
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The Mets having Las Vegas as their AAA affiliate indicates how far the Mets have fallen. It is considered one of the worst minor league facilities. The results are unreliable and the call ups are a plane ride away and lose hours in time zone travel traveling back to the east coast. The Mets need to make a strong committment to secure an affiliate nearer to NY when this lease ends. I believe Charlotte and their brand new stadium would be a good choice and the timing will work. I am not sure how a team goes about securing an affiliate but I bet money goes along way.
Flores has been playing the majority of his games at second and third base so I think the SS transformation has been abandoned. SS is manned by Reynolds in Las Vegas and I recently read that he has more range than Tejada.
You make a good point that young players need to play when called up to the majors. It makes more sense, as in Flores case, to keep him where he is if he won’t be starting on the Mets.
I think they should have given Flores a trial period in the majors at short instead of the sporadic playing time he received. If they’ve moved past him at short, then he’s blocked this year. Maybe Murph gets traded, opening up second as an option, but it’s probably more likely Flores ends up being dealt. It’s a shame.
I think they got to move out of Las Vegas, how are you going to judge whether players are ready or not based on what’s happening in this ballpark? Good point about den Dekker too, when he was called up, he struggled. Got to move the AAA team if the Major League team is going to improve.
Both Flores and Den Dekker had severely limited playing time in NY, as you mentioned. If you aren’t going to play young guys to see how they handle the majors, then don’t call them up. I think that’s something where SA and TC aren’t on the same page about.