With one of the most flurrious and activity-filled trade deadlines, the Mets decided to stand pat with the cards that they had, and there’s nothing wrong with that. But of course, just because the July 31st trade deadline has come and gone, there still can be trades made until August 31st when the waiver trade deadline comes. Last year, Sandy Alderson architected one the best trades of his Mets tenure, acquiring Vic Black and Dilson Herrera from the Pittsburgh Pirates for Marlon Byrd and John Buck. Depending on how the rest of the month of August goes, the Mets may very well find themselves within grasp of a wild card spot, and if so, they’re going to need to beef up the offense for the potential pennant race. Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated identified several names to keep an eye on as the waiver trade deadline approaches. Here’s a few names from his list that the Mets should pursue.
- Alex Rios – The Texas Rangers reportedly had interest in dealing Rios at the July 31st deadline, but despite interest from several teams, no deal was able to be worked out. Entering play on Monday, Rios is hitting .298/.329/.421, all numbers right around his career norms, even if he only has four home runs. Rios has a 100 wRC+ this year, which isn’t great, but Mets left fielders this year have hit .234/.308/.359 in 2014 with a 91 wRC+. Rios shouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects, and can cheaply be bought out ($1 million) at the end of the season.
- Josh Willingham – Sometimes there are just players you irrationally love. For our friend Jon Presser over at The Shea Faithful, it’s Jeff Keppinger. For me, it’s Josh Willingham. Ever since I first saw Willingham play for the 2006 Florida Marlins, he’s been one of my favorite non-Mets players. I guess id doesn’t hurt that Willingham is actually pretty good, and is another cheap way the Mets could upgrade at left field for a possible playoff run. Willingham is hitting .221/.365/.422 for the Minnesota Twins this year, good for a 122 wRC+. He had a prolonged slump earlier this year in which he went 13-for-100 at the plate, but I’m still surprised that he’s not a name that has been talked about more.
- Bartolo Colon – Okay, so this one would more be in the event that the Mets fall hopeless out of contention between now and August 31st. Ditch Colon to a contender desperate for starting pitching – especially one with Colon’s playoff experience. Those teams have always has existed, and always will, so if the Mets are in the position to sell, go ahead and do it. It’s not like Rafael Montero or Noah Syndergaard won’t be ready by that time to take his spot in the rotation, anyway.
One way or the other, the Mets have some interesting options to consider over the next month, and whether or not they are buyers, sellers, or just plain watchers at the deadline has a lot to do with the team’s play in the coming weeks. Who would you like to see the Mets pursue/trade? Joe Vasile is the voice of the Fayetteville SwampDogs.
I’d like to see them pursue either Steve Ballmer or Michael Bloomberg.
LOL it would have to be Ballmer… do you know what the concessions would look like if Bloomy had his way…?
He’s not an idiot who will invest all his money in a Ponzi scheme like someone we know. And he knows how to make money and be out of the limelight at the same time.
Yes! Mark Cuban, please save us!
Well done. I think Bloomberg would be a nice fit. Don’t sleep on Bill Maher either.
Curtis Granderson’s contract precludes much of anything, but realistically, he had one decent month this year, and nothing more.
I am one who would rather lose with young players, and the hope of something better, than to lose with pricy vets.
2015 stands as a very exciting year for our pitching.
But what of offense?
We saw our two hottest hitters benched yesterday by either Collins or Alderson. I don’t know who runs the team in this manner.
We have a .230 leadoff hitter.
Chris Young continues to get at bats. Is this Collins’ doing, or Alderson’s? Someone is penciling him in while Matt Den Dekker gets no chance to play.
With the pitching coming together, I don’t understand the line up. Standing pat at the deadline was not okay for us. Eating a contract, like Jason Bay, is better than what appears to be a new strategy: take the Jason Bay type and give him even more at bats to sabotage the offense.
Alderson frustrates me.
In defense of Alderson, once he brings them up TC does not play them. So TC frustrates me more with his lineups.
That may be the case, but if it is, why did Alderson give Collins another two-year contract?
Beats the heck out of me.
I thought the GM was above the manager and could “ask” him to do something.
BTW, Flores and Campbell are not in the lineup today, against a LH starter. It’s back to Tejada (8th) and Chris Young (6th) again!
I thought Hudson was going for SF? He’s a righty
You’re right, Brian! I should not have believed Metsblog.com, which has Hudson right now as a LH pitcher!
Nevertheless, Flores and Campbell should still be starting!
Granderson might have an overall avg of .230, but his OBP is .336. When talking leadoff, you want the leadoff guy to get on base. Take out his horrendous April and it would be around .350, which is great for a leadoff hitter.
Two hottest hitters benched? Well, it’s hard to be mad at benching lefties vs. one of the toughest lefties in the league. LHB vs Bumgarner in his career hit .217 with a sub .600 OPS.
That’s not a very fair depiction of Granderson’s season:
April: 136/252/216 (very bad)
May: 254/373/465 (very good)
June: 300/411/522 (awesome)
July: 214/314/440 (mediocre)
He’s not as bad as he was in April or as good as he was in June, July and May probably represent the low and high ends of his expected performance going forward (respectively). He’s at an age where decline may happen rapidly, but for now he’s not part of the problem. Nimmo, Puelo, or Comforto don’t seem ready yet, so I wouldn’t be in any rush to move Granderson.
No to Rios (with his weak power numbers); yes to Willingham (much better stats, all around); yes to dumping Colon (who never should have been given a two-year deal). Agree that we have Montero and Syndergaard, ready to step in, not to mention Dice-K and Torres.
Also, get rid of Chris Young finally! Playing Campbell, den Decker, and others out there would be better. And Abreu needs to go, too.
Colon was going to get a 2 year deal no matter what. I don’t really have a problem with his deal. It certainly worked better than the deals for junk like Lannan or Marcum. According to Fangraphs, based on the price of WAR on the open market, Bartolo has been worth $9.5 million this season with 2 months still left to go.
Maybe so, but with limited Wilponzian funds, $11 million next year is a lot. Also, who else was offering him a contract. There probably were one or two teams ready to give him a one-year deal for, maybe, $8-12 million, but we could have topped that by a million, I believe.
11 million is not really a lot in the grand scheme of things. They only have 54 million on the books plus arbitration 3 for Parnell/Murphy arb 2 for Gee/EYJ/Duda/Tejada. That’s maybe another 25 million at most.
Their payroll should go down about 5 million from this year to next year unless they sign some people. I would be surprised if Bartolo wasn’t moved.
Hey Marc you need 25 players to complete a roster. So if the remaining spots are filled with minimum wage salaries you get close to this years current payroll. Your Arbitration numbers may be a little low simply because Duda and Murphy may wind up with substantial raises
The Mets shouldn’t make any trades in hope that they will compete this year. That my friend, is a pipe dream because this team cannot even achieve 500 let alone winning a WC.
Trading Colon? sure, get whatever prospects you can get and bring up Montero.
But the single biggest problem with these Mets is the imbecile in the dugout who keeps playing CY and Tejada on a daily basis when better players are available.
That is what keeps these Mets from taking off. Collins, the Imbecile.
+1
Yeah, on the whole I’d agree.
You have to think Chris Young has pictures of Terry with an underage girl. At the least you can explain Tejada’s playing time because he’s playing pretty good defense this year.
As David will be talking about later on today in his minor league article … we are stockpiling talent that makes every day exciting. Bring em on up.
I agree that CY sucks, and Tejada mostly sucks (he does play pretty good D at SS). But who are the better current options? Eric Young, Den Dekker, and Nieuwenhuis don’t seem like obvious OF upgrades to me, and I’m not sure who else can play SS unless you’re talking about Flores (who might hit, though I’m not convinced he can actually play SS).
Terry collins is a puppet, he does what Sandy dictates, Chris Ypung and Abrieu should be gone now, Eric Young after the season.We also need a backup catcher, and I never want to see Dendecker or Newinheiss. This is a major league team, we need major league players, and a major league manager. Mets will never compete with these clown on the roster.
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How many .230 and below batters can a team put in a line up and not expect mediocre results?
Agree with Willingham as the best option.
At least they DFAed Abreu.Kirk is back up.
The Mets need to go 8-2, and at least 5-1 against the Nats to make any waiver claim relevant. The games are played on the field, not in a computer. Anything can happen in the next ten games so I choose to be optimistic but leave my betting stash in my billfold. I would prefer Willingham over Rios if the Mets could ever get into that position. The problem is that the Mets front office would probably stick with CY. It is a positive sign that Abreu was released and Kirk promoted. If we can only convince the manager to platoon Kirk and Campbell in left or at least Kirk and CY.
I agree with Sandy in regard to Colon. He is a middle of the rotation innings eater with a reasonable 2015 salary. He should bring back something useful in trade this winter.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Alex Rios. He’s always injured though. I’d rather get a power hitter if we’re going the trade route.
.284/.381 (!!!!)/.409; and OPS+ above 120 and an OPS+ above 140 at home.
This same guy had 6 BB in 20 plate appearances against Tim Hudson, and an overall OPS above 1.1, but of course rode the pines.
Read that again – an OBP of nearly 400. This team, using the likes of Chris Young, couldn’t find some starts for that guy?
This, right here, is why the Athletics put together winning teams and the Mets never will. The A’s find players that do something well and leverage that ability to the extreme. We have that ability right under our noses and ignore it.
Other examples: leadoff hitter? The Mets had two guys with successful histories on the roster before they finally gave it to Granderson. 2011: how many first baseman did they have with an OPS north of 120, and why does it take this team two years to figure it out? Flores, and the whole SS scenario. How can we not figure out how to get a 16K/9 pitcher to the major leagues? There are probably 15 cheap players that can put on 1B glove and absolutely cream LHP; you have had more than four years of poor splits at that position and in one year, we saw Satin (but couldn’t commit to him). Why does anyone, at any time, play CF ahead of Juan Lagares? Has Eric Young *ever* been used as a pinch runner?
The misuse of talent in this organization is nearly criminal. Bobby Abreu hits better than all but a small handful of Mets *when you let him start*. But instead, we’ll force that round peg into a square hole and let him go when he hits .115 in that role.
Amazing. Yeah. By all means, let’s bring up Kirk, because there haven’t been like 74 studies that have shown that pinch hitting is simply not a repeatable skill. We gotta have that LH pinch hitter on the squad, not a nearly *800 OPS starter*.
I’d like to lay it all at the feet of Terry, but Sandy owns this too.
Kirk as a starter: .220/.320/.488.
Abreu in the OF: much worse than Lucas Duda.
no thanks. For someone who loves WAR, have you taken a look at his? -0.6 bWAR and -0.4 fWAR.
@ Pete – yes.
@ Name – Using 41 ABs to come up with those numbers? Classic. The guy has 12 ABs in June that boosted him overall. Twelve. Otherwise, his 740ish OPS is completely in keeping with this lifetime. Nothing he’s done in LV since he’s been down there indicates to me he’s jumped up.
How about this, his lifetime numbers as a starter are sub 700 in over 400 PA. All of that, I could ignore, if I didn’t think for a minute that the only reason Kirk is in NYC is because Terry wants a LH pinch hitter off the bench. Wanna bet that’s what we see him doing?
End of the day, you bring up Matt DenDekker – who you know I don’t have anything for – I get it. He’s made some strides, he seems to have changed his K rate, whatever.
You didn’t make the team better by bringing up Kirk. You made it worse. Abreu wakes up and hits. He is Willingham, he is Byrd, he is any one of a number of professional hitters in the ML that simply strokes.
(And yeah I like WAR. Its a fouled statistic in this situation, insofar as you’ve warped the view of Abreu by continually used him as a PH.
You should be familiar with this argument, since you use it ad nauseum for defending Duda/vis-a-vis LFer).
“Nothing he’s done in LV since he’s been down there indicates to me he’s jumped up”
So you complain that i use a small sample size on Kirk in the majors and then you go ahead and use an even smaller sample size?
“How about this, his lifetime numbers as a starter are sub 700 in over 400 PA”
Lifetime stats are not that useful for a young developing player. Should we never play Flores again in the majors because over his first 200 PA he has a .557 OPS?
“Terry wants a LH pinch hitter off the bench. Wanna bet that’s what we see him doing?”
Ok… So what’s wrong with that?
“End of the day, you bring up Matt DenDekker – who you know I don’t have anything for – I get it”
So are you complaining because the Mets dumped Abreu or didn’t bring up Mdd instead?
“You didn’t make the team better by bringing up Kirk. You made it worse.”
A baseless statement. Kirk’s had better success this year.
“Abreu wakes up and hits. He is Willingham, he is Byrd, he is any one of a number of professional hitters in the ML that simply strokes”
Unless he hits like he did in May, his OBP skills don’t outweigh his enormous defensive shortcomings.
” Its a fouled statistic in this situation, insofar as you’ve warped the view of Abreu by continually used him as a PH”
Abreu’s role is to be a bench player, not a starter. Using him as a PH is not warping the view.
Jerry Grote are you talking about Abreu?
Abreu can’t really play the field anymore, he’s pretty much limited to being the lefty bat off the bench and DHing in AL ballparks. I don’t think his slash line in 65 PAs at home is an indicator of his ability as just about everything else suggests he’s not even that good a hitter anymore.
CY hasn’t hit anyone this year, and for the second year in a row his fielding has been poor, too. His career numbers suggest he can hit lefties (255/358/460), so at most he should be getting 1-2 starts a week against lefty starters and otherwise PH against lefty relievers.
Niewenhuis has actually hit pretty well this year, and as a LHB he hits righties better than lefties. I don’t know that there’s a *good* answer for LF this season, but a Niewenhius/CY platoon would be passable. EY doesn’t hit from either side of the plate, so he shouldn’t be more than a pinch runner/defensive replacement.
I actually think Murphy should hit leadoff against righty starters. Career OBP of 343 against righties, he has some speed, and he’s more of a gap power hitter than a HR slugger. Against lefties they could sit Duda and let Campbell start at first and hit leadoff (362 OBP on the season, albeit in a small sample size).
I agree TC could do a better job with his lineups, as the Young boys are getting too much playing time. But now that Lagares is the regular CF it’s not like he’s sitting anyone with immense talent.
So 65 ABs isn’t sufficient to make a decision about Abreu, but 50 is more than enough to make a decision about Kirk? No reason to be consistent I guess.
No doubt Abreu can’t field very much any more. But his range factor of 1.67 is pretty close to Eric Young’s overall 1.97. Chris Young, in RF, offers up a 1.57.
His defensive shortcomings probably are a bit off of what either Young can do.
End of the day, he had something he could do. He hit as a starter. We continue to get negative performances out of LF and looking forward, I see absolutely nothing that will change that.
And we just DFA an 800 OPS starter. Bottom line, he could hit. Focusing on what happened when you put him in as a PHer is just sticking your head in the sand.
As my truncated summary of Abreu and Nieuwenhuis wasn’t perfectly clear, I’ll expand:
KN has 489 career PAs, in which he’s gone 252/316/421 against righties. Not great, but better than our other options. Considering he’s shown improvement in (limited) action at age 26 this season, it seems reasonable to assume some of his gains in 2014 are real and not just a small sample size fluke. And while he hasn’t played enough innings at any OF spot to have truly significant data, so far in the majors he’s been average-to-good defensively, which is consistent with his minor league scouting reports.
Abreu, who is 40, didn’t play in 2013 and declined every year from 2008 – 2012. His OPS has gone from 843 (2008) to 825 (2009) to to 787 (2010) to 717 (2011) to 693 (2012), and it’s down to 667 this year. From 2010 – 2012, he did still get on base at a 350 clip, but even that’s dropped to 331 this season. Sure, he only has 142 PAs in 2014, but that’s a heck of a lot more significant than his 65 PAs at home. And there is nothing beyond those 65 PA at home in 2014 to suggest he can still hit above league average, particularly when you go back and look at the past several seasons prior to 2014.
And his defense is flat out bad, and has been for some time. He has a dWar of -1 in only 199 innings on the field for 2014. His RF9 of 1.63 is way below the league average of 2.11, it means over every 10 games he makes about 5 less catches than an average OF (quick note, he’s played far more in RF than LF, and while his 37 innings in LF is close to meaningless, his LF RF9 is well below the league average). Of course SSS applies again, but in 2012 his LF RF9 was 1.68, and in 2011 it was 1.38. He didn’t play much LF before 2010, and his career LF RF9 is 1.70 (over 1,000 innings) to a MLB average of 1.98 during this span.
EY’s defense is probably a bit over-rated, but he’s light years better than Abreu. 1.63 is actually much worse than EY’s 1.96, as it works out to about three less catches per 10 games. And EY has 452 innings in LF this year, and at the position he has an RF9 of 1.97 to a league average of 1.78. And in 1600+ innings at LF, he has a 1.97 RF9 to a league average of 1.82. He’s a good fielder, not a great one.
To sum up, Abreu is terrible in the field and probably can’t hit any more. To the extent any skills remain, it’s getting on base against against RHPs, so he’s best suited as the lefty bat off the bench or starting at DH in AL parks against righty starters.
KN appears to be an average-to-good defender, at a minimum is passable against righties, and considering his age and 2014 improvement may be better than that. If nothing else, he’s a better option to start in LF against RHPs than Abreu is.
Consistent enough for you?
I don’t think the Mets signed Abreu for his defense. Besides they have Lagares in CF who could cover what Abreu could not.
I totally agree with you Steve. We couldnt possibly get rid of Abreu fast enough. Im glad this experiment is in the rear view mirror. Too bad CY is still on this squad. Hes owed 2.24M$ for the remainder of the season, and it is time to just dump that as a failed experiment too. To me its worth freeing up the roster spot. This evens out if you think of the value we got out of Byrd from last year, both in terms of actual WAR and the trade pieces in Black and Herrera.
They probably are better off dumping Abreu and CY and trying younger options. Nieuwenhuis and den Dekker probably aren’t the long term answers, but they’re both 26 so there’s at least a chance they can improve. We have plenty of data to know Abreu and CY aren’t good anymore, and it strongly suggests they’re not even good in limited roles.
Abreu’s overall production, before he was tanked by the team, was among the team leaders and around 1.5 at the end of June. He was successful outside of the league prior to this year, in 2013, which you sidestep.
We stop playing him, put him into a role he can’t produce in, and shock of shocks he fails. Wow; you couldn’t guess that from an organization that continued to put Lucas Duda in LF – even including it in their presumed plans as late as this spring. Terry isn’t mismanaging the talent on the team? Wait a little while. He’s shown a consistent inability and it will return.
Shocking side note – Abreu not the near HOF player in his prime and he’s declined. Alert the press. In his last full season in 2012, he put up a slash that ended in 704 (and subsequently had productive ABs outside the league, and then again with us through June). Kirk’s lifetime slash? 693. Youth doesn’t indicate promise to me, production does.
There is no indication other than a 12 AB rush – Twelve – that Nieuwenhuis can hit. He has a slash that ends in 679 at Las Vegas in his return there, completely consistent with this .693 ML mark and the .740ish he’s put up outside of the 12 ABs. I’ll leave out the .095 in his last 25 PAs. He’s an above average fielder.
But let’s get beyond Kirk versus Abreu. From an organizational/roster perspective, this move stinks. You are bringing up a guy that has failed to be “accountable” – who did nothing in LV to improve substantially (granted, small time frame). You are *not* bringing up the guy that was accountable (MDD) and in the same small time frame did improve. All this, while we continue to put Eric Young and Chris Young on the field and not holding them accountable for their inabilities.
Again – at the end of the day, if TC puts Kirk out there and consistently gives him ABs I will be amazed. He’s been brought up to fill Abreu’s miscast role of LH pinch hitter – because in a few ABs Kirk did that well.
I’d love to be wrong here because it would send good signals about Terry Collins. My guess is that Kirk has closer to 14 ABs than 40 by the time we see Labor Day.
“I’d love to be wrong here”
Well JG, I’ve got good news for you, pretty much everything you wrote above is wrong.
For the umpteenth time, you can’t just pick and choose the stats that support your case. I pretty clearly pointed out that Abreu has been in decline for years, and he’s no longer even a solid MLB regular. Your response? That he hit well in the Venezuelan winter league. Really? I didn’t side step that issue, I ignored it because it’s irrelevant. Lots of sub-MLB players can succeed in winter league ball.
Let’s look at your claim about the Mets “screwing up” Abreu by changing his role:
May: 350/438/475 in 48 PAs, with 8 starts and 17 PH appearances
June: 227/314/295 in 51 PAs, with 11 starts and 10 PH appearances
So he didn’t stop hitting because the Mets stopped starting him…he stopped hitting after the Mets started giving him more starts. He got three more starts in July prior to the AS break, and went 2 for 10. He got 4 more starts in July after the AS break, and went 1 for 15. The Mets gave him more opportunities, and Abreu hit his way right back to the bench.
It’s not that he’s no longer a HOF hitter, it’s that he’s not even a good one any more. The mistake was giving him too much time after a big May, and his numbers have predictably regressed.
Also, where in the world are you getting your AAA numbers for KN? He has an 831 OPS in LV for 2014, and for his career its 814. And he’s managed an 837 OPS in limited action in MLB this year. If anything, the mistake was not giving KN more playing time than Abreu, who’s used his 142 PAs to prove his decline to below-average from 2008 – 2012 was real.
I doubt KN is ever more than an average MLB regular, though the Mets could leverage more value out of him with a platoon where he almost exclusively faces righties. But that’s a lot more than can be said for Abreu, unless one is more impressed by a 320 average in winter ball instead of his past 5-6 MLB seasons.
The only thing I was taught was that it’s up to the manager to recognize and utilize his players strengths. Apparently TC with his archaic ideas about what he needs to have so the Mets can be successful are beyond my comprehension. Can you imagine if this team had a competent manager? Maybe they could sneak in to the playoffs this year. Not to worry Met fans SA has Collins returning next year to obliterate any hopes for 2015.
Vs LHP Lagares has an .802 OPS and a .344 OBP with speed. I would lead him off vs LHP.
vs RHP Kirk has a .851 OPS and only a .323 OBP with speed. Not ideal, but when he plays in the LF platoon he should lead off.
On a team that is lacking power and run production, Granderson’s 15 homeruns would be more productive in the middle of the order.
That’s putting an awful lot of emphasis on Lagares slash lines against lefties in 62 PAs in 2014. If you include 2013 numbers, he has a 298 OBP with a 701 OPS against lefties (206 PAs).
As with Nieuwenhuis, he’s at an age where the improvement may be legitimate (or at least partially legitimate). But I suspect he’s more like a 320-330 OBP guy against lefties, which feels pretty light for the leadoff spot. I wouldn’t hit KN in the leadoff spot either, though I do think he should start in LF against RHPs. A Murphy/Campbell leadoff rotation is going to get on base a lot more than a Lagares/KN one…
Amen Metsense.